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#1
I personally like all seven. One reason why is because of how important a Game 3 is to a team that is down 2-0. Regardless of how these series turn out, players know how much different the narrative of their entire season can change based solely on this one game. A first round sweep for a lot of these teams is a total failure (i.e. Portland, Dallas, Toronto), and for others a Game 3 win is a feather in their cap representing a nice season with hope for the future (i.e. Milwaukee, New Orleans, Boston).
Below, I have ranked these seven teams in order of the likelihood, in my opinion, that they cut the deficit to 2-1, with some reasons why I like them.
Portland -155
Portland is short-handed and will almost surely fall short in the series to a superior Grizzlies team. But The Blazers are no pushover, especially at home. They still have Lamarcus Aldridge, who is an elite scorer, and Damian Lillard who has a history of clutch play in important games. Their fans will be behind them in full force for this Saturday night game and I expect them to give a full effort and avoid the sweep.
Dallas -110
Like the Trail Blazers, Dallas is short-handed and highly likely to be headed for a first round exit. However, the Mavericks have a number of guys on their team who have a wealth of playoff experience as well as plenty of healthy talent to win this important game.
Plus, the news that Rondo will be out for the remainder of the postseason can't be seen as anything but a positive for the Mavs, as they are -36 in scoring margin with him on the floor in this series and +14 with him off it.
I like the Mavericks to put everything they have into this game and come out with the victory.
Milwaukee +125
The Bucks showed they can play with the Bulls for an extended length of time. However they have as of yet not been able to do so for a full 48 minutes. The Bulls are gelling well at the right time, and are close to a certainty to advance to Round 2. But the Bucks didn't go from 15 wins last season to 41 this season because Jason Kidd can't coach.
Last year as the coach of Brooklyn, Kidd and the Nets faced a similar situation in Round 2, heading home down 2-0 to a superior opponent in Miami. They responded and won the game by double digits, before bowing out of the series 4-1. I would not be surprised to see a similar result here.
New Orleans +180
The reason why I like the Pelicans here is pretty simple: They are a good team, especially at home. Make no mistake about it, the Warriors have played like one of the best teams in recent NBA history all year long, and are my personal favorite at this point to win the title.
New Orleans is unlikely to win more than one game in this series, but they have shown that they can beat elite teams on their home floor. Within the last week or so of the regular season, they overcame the Warriors, who had won 17 of 19 coming in, as well as the Spurs who had won 14 of 15 going into that last, all important final regular season game. And if the Pelicans do win one game in this series, I believe this will be the one. I would take the +5 here for insurance, but I like the Pelicans to win this game SU.
Toronto +150
After their first two performances, on the surface it seems almost impossible to back this team right now. But this series bears a striking resemblance to one that was played in the first round just last year: the Rockets vs. the Trail Blazers.
In both series, the 4 seed lost Game 1 at home in OT, at which point Game 2 seemed like a must win for the home team. But then, they proceeded to lose again, this time by double digits. And everyone counted the 4 seed out.
But last year, the Rockets came back to make a series of it, getting all the way to the point of being up by two in Game 6, just 0.9 seconds away from sending the series back home for a Game 7. Then some Damian Lillard craziness ensued.
However, the moral of the story is that if it is true that history repeats itself in the NBA Playoffs, the Raptors are down, but far from out.
Let's also remember that in Round 1 of last year's playoffs, the Wizards won Games 1 and 2 on the road like they did this year, only to lose Game 3 at home.
The Raptors have been inconsistent and unpredictable all season long, but they have the talent to win this game and I give them a good chance of doing so in this must-win situation.
Brooklyn +125
The Nets almost pulled off the upset in Game 2, which showed me they are capable of getting a win against the Hawks. Unlike the Warriors, who kept the throttle down throughout the final stretch of the regular season, the Hawks have had some hiccups, including a home loss to the Knicks, along with an unfortunate off-the-court event that have left them without one of their top perimeter defenders in Thabo Sefolosha. They have been less consistent the past month than they had been previously, and while I still really like this team to get to the Conference Finals, I find reason enough to fade them for this one game in what is a very big game for the Nets.
Boston +165
I'm not going to lie, it's not easy for me to fade LeBron and Kyrie Irving. They are a heavy favorite in my opinion to get to the NBA Finals. And they have shown the ability to let the Celtics hang around, almost as if they're toying with them, only to cruise right past them late. These things definitely worry me, which is why Boston ranks last on this list. I am by no means advocating a large play on the Celtics here. However, they have shown me enough in the first two games for me to believe that they can get one win against the Cavs for their fans. They play great team ball and have some really nice young talent. I would take the +4.5 here to be safe, but I really think the Celtics have a legitimate chance at picking up a win here.
Please feel free to chime in with thoughts of your own. I'm sure some agree and some disagree on each of these games, and I would like to hear what other people's takes and angles are on these games.
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