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Should I quit while I'm ahead?

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Views: 1273
Posts: 14
 
Prospect
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Joined: Jan, 2017
Posts: 26
Posted: #1
Despite my love for the sport of basketball, I had never actually bet on a NBA game until last week. I've been betting on the NFL for several years now with decent success, but my recent string of success betting on NBA games has me thinking I should focus my money solely on the NBA. The other part of me thinks that I may just be getting lucky and I should quit while I'm ahead.

Over the last weeks, I am 9 for 10 betting on the NBA:

Atlanta (-2) @ Orlando ?
OKC @ Charlotte over 208.5?
Utah @ Toronto (-4.5)?
OKC (+8.5) @ Houston?
Houston (-5) @ Orlando?
Minnesota @ Washington over 211.5?
Miami @ LAL under 213.5?
Memphis @ Golden State over 216.5 ?
Denver @ OKC over 220.5 ?
Atlanta (-1.5) @ Dallas ?

I understand that the sample size is small, but I'm still intrigued by this short string of success. Am I getting lucky? Are these "smart" picks? Should I quit while I'm ahead? Or should I ride this hot streak?

Any insight would be helpful.
 
Prospect
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Joined: Dec, 2008
Posts: 418
Posted: #2
that's for you to decide.
 
Prospect
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Joined: Oct, 2016
Posts: 246
Posted: #3
Ride your streak good picks

 
Prospect
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Joined: Dec, 2008
Posts: 418
Posted: #4
How much can you stand to perfect your craft?
 
Veteran
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Posts: 2934
Posted: #5
I personally would ride the hot streak and then only after loosing two three in a row would I consider cashing out but as long as you play as you have and protect your winnings by all means when your hot your hot.....ride it out
 
Veteran
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Posts: 1710
Posted: #6
Just my opinion:

9-1 is a fantastic start. Without getting into variance and regression, this is obviously unsustainable.

It is possible that this is just a lucky start too. You need to wait until you have reached certain thresholds. What is your record after 25 plays? 50? 100?

I love baseball because of the sheer amount of raw data that can be accumulated over a 162 game season. Much like a hitter in baseball, if he stays healthy and accumulates 650 plate appearances, his .273 average is giving you a very foody indication of who he "really is"

As far as being on the right side of these games, hindsight is 20/20 of course, but the "winning side" is not always the "right side"

I like to make notes beside each play after it is completed.
(ex: Pistons +5.5......trailing by 10-12 pts for almost the whole game..... DET hits a meaningless end of game 3 pointer to lose by only 5)
 
Prospect
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Joined: Nov, 2013
Posts: 37
Posted: #7
R u really looking for advice or just some acknowledgement of ur success. We all no while gambling, u have ur strikes of hot and cold. As long as ur making thought thru and compitent decisions about the games u like and winning while doing it, keep doing what ur doing till u think ur luck has run out.

Lol! Really nice job, Bro. Keep it going.
 
Veteran
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Joined: Dec, 2013
Posts: 1195
Posted: #8
you should start creating daily threads to post your plays in
 
Prospect
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Joined: Jan, 2017
Posts: 26
Posted: #9
I'm not searching for gratification. I can, however, see why it might seem like that.

For those of you who bet on both football and basketball, do you find basketball to be easier? Harder? The same?

I'm sure I'm in for a rude awakening at some point, but the NBA just seems slightly easier to predict (especially when it comes to O/U). Am I wrong for thinking this?

In general, it seems like NBA games tend to go over more often than not.

Perhaps it's just recency bias on my part.

Am I wrong?

 
Veteran
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Joined: Dec, 2012
Posts: 1849
Posted: #10
Id suggest take your winnings and take a short break.


 
Prospect
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Joined: Jan, 2017
Posts: 26
Posted: #11
Quote Originally Posted by Brobeans:

you should start creating daily threads to post your plays in


Okay! I'll do that.
 
Hall of Fame
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Joined: Mar, 2005
Posts: 20392
Posted: #12
All good things eventually will come to an end.....

Law of averages...Eventually you'll have a losing run..but keep it up..Hope you win 
 
Banned
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Joined: Sep, 2015
Posts: 2559
Posted: #13
Why are you asking others to decide for you? Here is my answer: give me all of your money AND YOUR LADY (IF SHE IS BEAUTIFUL) AND JUMP OFF THE BRIDGE. What an idiot.
 
 
Prospect
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Posts: 26
Posted: #14
Quote Originally Posted by Windy8899:

Why are you asking others to decide for you? Here is my answer: give me all of your money AND YOUR LADY (IF SHE IS BEAUTIFUL) AND JUMP OFF THE BRIDGE. What an idiot.

Does it make you feel tough running your mouth over the Internet?

As I said, im new to NBA. I'm just looking for insight. Chill.
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