Small but serious bettor

Let's get this.

Remaining leans:

That's the compromise I have to make. It's not worth my time to just bet $10 per game. I might win but not that much if I bet a larger amount. Like they always say, scared money doesn't win. Eventually if I can build my bankroll up, I'll lower my bet sizes. But for now, I'm advocating a high-risk/high-reward money management system. Flat betting but adding some more if I feel strongly about a play (like the Lakers +3 against the Spurs). Thanks for the advice though. I'll keep that in mind. 

Philadelphia is red hot right now, one of the hottest in the league. Indiana on the other hand is spiraling downwards, barely clinging to the final playoff spot in the Eastern Conference. They just came from a disappointing road trip where they were 0-3. Defense has been their problem, giving up 110+ ppg in each of their last 3 games. They're also missing Mike Dunleavy who plays a vital role in this Indiana team, stretching the floor and making the necessary cuts to the basket for easy baskets. The last time these two met, Indiana prevailed by shooting 50% from the field and three land. That won't happen tonight. It's an outlier as Philly is one of top teams in defending the three. Also worth noting is the fact that the last time these two teams faced each other, Iguodala just came back from an injury. He was inept both offensively and defensively. I expect him to be much better later and shut Danny Granger down. Indiana is a jumpshooting team. Putting money on them is like praying that they get hot. That's not a good investment to make. In a battle of offense vs. defense, I'll side with the team that plays better defense. It's Philly in this case. Moreover, Indiana is atrocious when rested for 2 days battling against a team with 1 day of rest (0-6 SU, 1-5 ATS). Philly will get this game. I sure hope so.

Passing on the Miami game as the line moved to -9. Too much points but I still like Miami but won't put money on them.

Atlanta +5 (22/20)

Philadelphia ML (22/20)

Atlanta  

Philadelphia 

Boston -9

Philadelphia ML

This team is the best team ATS wise this season (along with Memphis and SA). They're playing great basketball right now and will go up against a Thunder team that's hit some slide currently. Philadelphia matches up well against OKC. They have a deep bench, a wing stopper in Iguodala (one of the best in the league at stopping opposing SFs, IMO) and are playing their best basketball of the season. Get this: they are 6-0 ATS when the spread they are a favorite of 1-1.5 points. They made me some money by betting on these "trap" games (They're not trap in my opinion. The public just overvalued some teams and underrated these Sixers big time). OKC is a public team and therefore we see inflated lines especially when they're up against supposedly inferior opponents. I know that OKC is crazy good coming off loses (18-5 SU) but Philadelphia matches up well with the Thunder. The latter doesn't have any size advantage they can exploit offensively. Take note also that OKC allows 103 ppg on the road while Philly limits their opponents to 94 ppg. If Durant was frustrated by Shane Battier and Tony Allen, wait till he meets Iguodala. Iggy would put pressure on him both offensively and defensively. Jrue Holiday, one of the most underrated young guards we have in the league, will give Westbrook fits. OKC's attack is centered on letting Westbrook and Durant score a bunch of points. Limit one of them and their ability to win guys take a huge beating. The Thunder are still underdogs in this match-up despite the fact that the public overvalues them. That should tell you everything you need to know. Philly will roll. I sure hope so.

Deron Williams is the heart and soul of the Nets team. Without him, who do you have in this roster worth noting? Maybe only Brook Lopez but he also has huge holes in his game (e.g. poor rebounder for his size, doesn't play defense). Since D-Will arrived in NJ, Brook Lopez seems to be rejuvenated. He had a monster game against the lowly Raptors in which he registered 34 points, 14 rebounds and 8 fucking blocks. That's an outlier. That won't happen tonight against these Warriors who are playing their last game of this 7-game road trip. Normally I would fade teams playing their last game of a long road trip but not in this case. The Warriors would want to finish their road trip and have a respectable 3-4 record before coming home. What better way to accomplish it than a win over the lowly Nets without their best player and coming off a rare and emotional triple-overtime game against the Raptors in Europe. The Nets are 1-4 ATS the last five games coming off wins while GSW is 6-1 ATS when playing without a day's rest. I would not put my money on the Nets without Deron. You're trusting Farmar to handle PG duties? That's absurd. Farmar is talented but he's dumb. I won't put my money on a team whose starting PG for the game is Jordan fucking Farmar. Also, the injured star player angle doesn't apply here. Williams will miss the next two games. There's a definite timeline. He'll be back in no time. There's no uncertainty surrounding his return unlike many cases of injuries. The other guys might step up but they're not that motivated because they know he'll be back soon. It's human nature, you can't do anything about it. 

Remaining leans for today:

Memphis -4.5

Milwaukee -9

Leans for tomorrow:

Phoenix -3.5

LAL ML

Risking $22 to win $20

I'm gonna abstain for awhile from posting. This is getting out of hand.