Spurs vs. Thunder: Game 5 or The Red Wedding

First, I love your write-up.  I don't agree with 90% of it as I don't see anything more than speculation and conjecture in most of it, but it was still an excellent read.  

I'm from Houston, close enough to SA to have been watching Pop figure out ways to kick our tail for years.  To say the man is a genious as a coach is without question.  I do believe that he rested starters in game 4 for multiple reasons. One of those being the lesson he learned last year in game 4.  If it is not looking good, lets not kill our older players before game 5 gets here.  Also he knew that his starters were not getting it done just like they didn't get it done all regular season against OKC with Ibaka healthy.  He was trying everything he could to get info on possible ways to beat them come game 5.  The smokescreen comment you made is funny.  Seriously, do you believe that any professional sports coach playing in a 7 game playoff series would want to lose games 3 and 4 to give another team momentum with only 2-3 games left in a series?  The man is a genious, but come back down to Earth with your expectations of his strategies.  

As for the game, and this is just my thoughts for whatever they may be worth....with Ibaka healthy and in solid playing form, the SA prefered style of offense is in trouble just like it has been all year against Ibaka and OKC.  For SA to win this game they will need to either win the 3 point battle or win the foul battle and get to the free throw line and make those shots count...as well as keep OKC away from the free throw line.  

All 4 games so far have been one sided victories but I think that will change tonight.  I'm leaning towards SA winning, but with Ibaka in the mix I do not think this SA team has the ability to crush OKC.  If they win it will be by low single digits.  As a fan, I will be cheering on SA but as a gambler, I'm going to take the points.

@ tbone 

The smokescreen comment was in reference to not just Pop raising the white flag, in games 3 and 4, but also how that waving of the white flag continued in some of the post game interviews. Also, let me add this to my initial write-up (something I forgot to mention). Barkley and Kenny, after game 4, talked about how difficult it would be for OKC to win a series, after spotting the Spurs with a 2-0 lead (due to Ibaka's injury). These guys played in the league a long time and know the kind of mental (not just physical) stamina it takes to win a long series. Giving the Spurs two easy wins, and then having to climb out of that hole exacts a price (regardless of how easy the games in OKC looked). It is like spotting a team a 20 point lead in the first half, and then having to come all the way back to win. Sure it can happen, but more often than not, the team that is trailing falls short.  

I can see calling the post game interviews a "smokescreen." Definitely.  Although it has been done in typical Spurs style.  Rarely do you see them say that they lost the game, they almost always give the credit to the opposing team for beating them.  Pop and crew always show a high level of class in that regard. 

Anyway, best of luck to you for the game and remainder of playoffs

Come on do you really think the Thunder are that stupid and Naive? They are fully aware of what the spurs can do to them. Evidence is in games 1 and 2. I was sold on the spurs pre ibaka. i've said it before but this guy changes the whole dynamic for the exact reasons i mentioned earlier. He makes their useless gimpy bigs actually worth something because he's a straight up force ALA Anthony Davis on the Pelicans.... he's that kinda lanky muscular super athletic guy. 

Aside from that the Thunder is coming in with a blend of revenge and having experienced a crushing defeat before as well. Last year didn't bode well for them. And i can assure 2012 and how they got absolutely crushed by the heat in the finals is fresh in their minds..... so the spurs aren't the only ones playing with some kinda special chip on their shoulder. 

They have bounced back plenty of times this playoffs. Including a complete blowout of memphis down 3-2 in the series going on the road. They shoulda have cracked the clippers and been up 3-1 in that series but had an enormous meltdown and blew that 11 point lead. They managed to rebound and win after (granted it was controversial). Then they managed to come into LA again and fend off a hungry Clippers team. It looked all doom and gloom but they hung around and then they caught absolute fire and crushed the Clippers on their own floor in game 6 to close them out. 

With Ibaka playing no worse than he played before this "injury" I don't see how this team does not stay within 5 points tonight and possibly win outright. They are coming off two super hot shooting performances and equally good defensive performance. The less rest they get the higher the chances of them staying that hott..... they will bring it tonight. You'll know Spurs are in trouble if they're playing well but the Thunder is hanging around there.... 

Aside from that Westbrook is running all over Parker..... Neither parkr or patty mills can hold OKC back up point reggie jackson..... so you got two guys waiting to go off on them. Westbrook doesn't get tired. 

We've seen them rock everyone on the road. They got absolutely crushed in OKC..... I did not like what I saw from them at all, especially after game 4 where they should have bounced back in that game 4 they got blown out even harder. 

Hey, I'm starting to like you. 

Thanks, Melo. Thanks, Scal. I appreciate it. A lot of nay sayers in this thread today, so this is nice. And now all the OKC backers can bet on the Thunder for game 6!

Gene 

OKC almost covered though. 

Gene, no worries, you'll get the next one!