Cleveland +8 and +330 ML*** Huge Play - look up ref Ben Taylor and the way he treats road teams. Last night he chopped the Nugs 17 pt deficit into a +5 lead in about 5 mins time. No doubt this guy keeps games close and gives the road team a little more credit than they should.
Orlando +5 and +180 ML. Maybe not the best spot for most to back Orlando coming off a long road trip - but don't kid yourself of the strides they have made recently. This game should be very close. Lots of offensive fouls and loose ball fouls with Jason Phillips - could be a good under play as well. Typically if you see Workman on a game - it means you will have to work for that payoff in the final minutes. It could go either way in the end.
Washington +11 and +600 ML. Similar to Orlando - people may just have trouble backing the Wiz given the talent on the team. However Wizards have been slowly coming together and making improvements in each category over the past 5 games or so. Wizards fought their way back into the game last night and looked quite impressive after half - especially on the defensive end. The Rockets may be a little too much for the Wizards - especially considering the fact Jordan Crawford (who isn't a natural point) is playing the point. However, given the play of the 2nd half last game - I think there will be some residual momentum carrying over to this game. They probably won't win - but +600 is too much to pass up against a very inconsistent Houston team.
Dallas and Toronto are also enticing as dogs - but not the best scheduling spot for either. Could be worth playing Toronto @ home vs Dallas Friday as Dallas has Minny on Saturday in a game that likely means more to them as far as quality win goes.
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To remove first post, remove entire topic.
Cleveland +8 and +330 ML*** Huge Play - look up ref Ben Taylor and the way he treats road teams. Last night he chopped the Nugs 17 pt deficit into a +5 lead in about 5 mins time. No doubt this guy keeps games close and gives the road team a little more credit than they should.
Orlando +5 and +180 ML. Maybe not the best spot for most to back Orlando coming off a long road trip - but don't kid yourself of the strides they have made recently. This game should be very close. Lots of offensive fouls and loose ball fouls with Jason Phillips - could be a good under play as well. Typically if you see Workman on a game - it means you will have to work for that payoff in the final minutes. It could go either way in the end.
Washington +11 and +600 ML. Similar to Orlando - people may just have trouble backing the Wiz given the talent on the team. However Wizards have been slowly coming together and making improvements in each category over the past 5 games or so. Wizards fought their way back into the game last night and looked quite impressive after half - especially on the defensive end. The Rockets may be a little too much for the Wizards - especially considering the fact Jordan Crawford (who isn't a natural point) is playing the point. However, given the play of the 2nd half last game - I think there will be some residual momentum carrying over to this game. They probably won't win - but +600 is too much to pass up against a very inconsistent Houston team.
Dallas and Toronto are also enticing as dogs - but not the best scheduling spot for either. Could be worth playing Toronto @ home vs Dallas Friday as Dallas has Minny on Saturday in a game that likely means more to them as far as quality win goes.
It hits at a great % when he is faced up against a slower and less defensive minded guards
Also Faried pts under. He's starting to regress right now. Only 1 double double in the past six games, he's been underperforming and picking up quick fouls early inhibiting his play. I don't think he gets on track tonight.
Any comments, thoughts, or criticisms are appreciated! As Always, Good Luck to everybody in the Association tonight!
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Also looking into Ty Lawson pts over.
It hits at a great % when he is faced up against a slower and less defensive minded guards
Also Faried pts under. He's starting to regress right now. Only 1 double double in the past six games, he's been underperforming and picking up quick fouls early inhibiting his play. I don't think he gets on track tonight.
Any comments, thoughts, or criticisms are appreciated! As Always, Good Luck to everybody in the Association tonight!
you checked other games from Ben Taylor??? any info on those? im lazy to check em myself
good luck man
It comes from a somewhat small sample as he's only been in the league since last year. However there seems to be some truth in the samples that we do have - Last he officiated 9 games. Home team won 3 games (Denver was home team and won twice-hence may play on them last night). In games outside of Denver that means he is 1-8 with avg rd margin of vict at 8.4.
This year he is 2-1 for the home team - (one win was with Denver as well this year vs NO at home). One of the ONLY refs that calls more fouls on the home team than the away team.
Like I said 12 games is not a huge sample - but personally seeing him send a Denver game into OT last march vs Sac by basically fouling their way back into the game. Affalo 3 pt fouls with .3 to go sent it to OT... I like the Nugs... but there was no foul and Sac should have won that game being up 5 with 23 secs left in the game. I suspect this guy is biased towards Denver.
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Quote Originally Posted by Mad_Skillz123:
you checked other games from Ben Taylor??? any info on those? im lazy to check em myself
good luck man
It comes from a somewhat small sample as he's only been in the league since last year. However there seems to be some truth in the samples that we do have - Last he officiated 9 games. Home team won 3 games (Denver was home team and won twice-hence may play on them last night). In games outside of Denver that means he is 1-8 with avg rd margin of vict at 8.4.
This year he is 2-1 for the home team - (one win was with Denver as well this year vs NO at home). One of the ONLY refs that calls more fouls on the home team than the away team.
Like I said 12 games is not a huge sample - but personally seeing him send a Denver game into OT last march vs Sac by basically fouling their way back into the game. Affalo 3 pt fouls with .3 to go sent it to OT... I like the Nugs... but there was no foul and Sac should have won that game being up 5 with 23 secs left in the game. I suspect this guy is biased towards Denver.
Regardless, every game I've seen him in, he is very generous towards the road team. Maybe he just tries too hard to neutralize the home court advantage.
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Regardless, every game I've seen him in, he is very generous towards the road team. Maybe he just tries too hard to neutralize the home court advantage.
I always fade teams that vegas is gifting short lines and public betting trends are pounding the Fave.
So im with you on Orlando and Cle ML
Another one standing out as too easy is Memphis. It makes no sense to me that the #1 away power ranked team is facing the 25th best home ranked team and Memphis has gotten plenty of rest after tough loss to Hawks.
I have them as -9 to -10.5 favorites. Something smells here.
While in my mind I can not see Pheonix winning this game.
I am taking a shot with Suns ML as the line is off imo
GL
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I always fade teams that vegas is gifting short lines and public betting trends are pounding the Fave.
So im with you on Orlando and Cle ML
Another one standing out as too easy is Memphis. It makes no sense to me that the #1 away power ranked team is facing the 25th best home ranked team and Memphis has gotten plenty of rest after tough loss to Hawks.
I have them as -9 to -10.5 favorites. Something smells here.
While in my mind I can not see Pheonix winning this game.
I am taking a shot with Suns ML as the line is off imo
IDK if those public betting trends are that accurate (especially if you are getting them from Covers where most of the contest people don't gamble).
Personally I know 3 out of 5 of my betting friends I asked today are taking Orlando tonight. 1 is playing ATL and the other is staying off but leans Orlando.
Books won't ever give you the real numbers - so IMO, the best way to know who's on what is to take your own sample from bettors you know are successful. You must remember - the betting public is us. It is not some random conglomeration of people - these are people who know basketball - or think they know basketball. The public isn't some old church ladies that found their way into a Vegas sportsbook - the public is people just like you and me
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IDK if those public betting trends are that accurate (especially if you are getting them from Covers where most of the contest people don't gamble).
Personally I know 3 out of 5 of my betting friends I asked today are taking Orlando tonight. 1 is playing ATL and the other is staying off but leans Orlando.
Books won't ever give you the real numbers - so IMO, the best way to know who's on what is to take your own sample from bettors you know are successful. You must remember - the betting public is us. It is not some random conglomeration of people - these are people who know basketball - or think they know basketball. The public isn't some old church ladies that found their way into a Vegas sportsbook - the public is people just like you and me
I'm putting out a "stupid" parlay on these 3 teams ML's tonight lol
$10 to win $685
68:1 odds
Odds on these three teamers don't get much better. I'd play these every night until it hits if I get 68:1 odds every time - especially given the fact I think 2/3 games have a really decent chance of winning SU.
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I'm putting out a "stupid" parlay on these 3 teams ML's tonight lol
$10 to win $685
68:1 odds
Odds on these three teamers don't get much better. I'd play these every night until it hits if I get 68:1 odds every time - especially given the fact I think 2/3 games have a really decent chance of winning SU.
I mainly use covers for last 10 in series matchups and to watch trends for away and home dogs last 7 vs ytd
For example home dogs last 7 days are 3-13 or 18% seems like a good spot for a home pup or two tongiht.
I agree betting trends is argueable becasue they know people are watching and numbers can easily be skewed. I use other sites to watch movement and volume.
btw I am not pulling tigger on Cle. anymore but plugging in Dallas ML at boston which appears to be a revenge game for boston and plenty of rest for the old legs. I am strictly going off a trend in this series is all and gut instinct.
G.L
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I mainly use covers for last 10 in series matchups and to watch trends for away and home dogs last 7 vs ytd
For example home dogs last 7 days are 3-13 or 18% seems like a good spot for a home pup or two tongiht.
I agree betting trends is argueable becasue they know people are watching and numbers can easily be skewed. I use other sites to watch movement and volume.
btw I am not pulling tigger on Cle. anymore but plugging in Dallas ML at boston which appears to be a revenge game for boston and plenty of rest for the old legs. I am strictly going off a trend in this series is all and gut instinct.
I mainly use covers for last 10 in series matchups and to watch trends for away and home dogs last 7 vs ytd
For example home dogs last 7 days are 3-13 or 18% seems like a good spot for a home pup or two tongiht.
I agree betting trends is argueable becasue they know people are watching and numbers can easily be skewed. I use other sites to watch movement and volume.
btw I am not pulling tigger on Cle. anymore but plugging in Dallas ML at boston which appears to be a revenge game for boston and plenty of rest for the old legs. I am strictly going off a trend in this series is all and gut instinct.
G.L
If you want some OG advice - pay much more attention to patterns than streaks. Streaks are meant to be broken. EX: Chi is riding a huge streak vs Cleveland right now (have not lost since Lebron James played there). Circle 1/7 to play Cleveland ATS vs Chicago. They will play HARD.
Follow patterns - coaching style on B2B (especially Pop), Referees, Matchups (who owns who). Here's a couple games to circle as well: SA tomorrow night and SA on 12/18 @ Den.
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Quote Originally Posted by wheresdabeef:
I mainly use covers for last 10 in series matchups and to watch trends for away and home dogs last 7 vs ytd
For example home dogs last 7 days are 3-13 or 18% seems like a good spot for a home pup or two tongiht.
I agree betting trends is argueable becasue they know people are watching and numbers can easily be skewed. I use other sites to watch movement and volume.
btw I am not pulling tigger on Cle. anymore but plugging in Dallas ML at boston which appears to be a revenge game for boston and plenty of rest for the old legs. I am strictly going off a trend in this series is all and gut instinct.
G.L
If you want some OG advice - pay much more attention to patterns than streaks. Streaks are meant to be broken. EX: Chi is riding a huge streak vs Cleveland right now (have not lost since Lebron James played there). Circle 1/7 to play Cleveland ATS vs Chicago. They will play HARD.
Follow patterns - coaching style on B2B (especially Pop), Referees, Matchups (who owns who). Here's a couple games to circle as well: SA tomorrow night and SA on 12/18 @ Den.
Apparently Faried has regressed so much the book isn't offering a point prop on him tonight
Lawson's point prop has jumped up 2 points from a week ago, but considering who he is matched up against tonight and his typical play on B2B's -16.5 points seems quite likely even though I don't like paying -120 juice - which is BTW the max juice I will ever pay on a prop.
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Apparently Faried has regressed so much the book isn't offering a point prop on him tonight
Lawson's point prop has jumped up 2 points from a week ago, but considering who he is matched up against tonight and his typical play on B2B's -16.5 points seems quite likely even though I don't like paying -120 juice - which is BTW the max juice I will ever pay on a prop.
Ty always seems to want to go off against the Wolves the team that drafted him originally. He set an NBA record by making his first 10 3 pt shots vs the Wolves before missing his last going 10/11 from 3 pt land.
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Ty always seems to want to go off against the Wolves the team that drafted him originally. He set an NBA record by making his first 10 3 pt shots vs the Wolves before missing his last going 10/11 from 3 pt land.
Phoenix is a very slow starting team. Given the fact PHX almost won last time and came out strong - I'm sure Hollins will focus on getting an early lead through attacking the paint. I can see problems on the boards early on with PHX.
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Adding Memphis 1st Q -2
Phoenix is a very slow starting team. Given the fact PHX almost won last time and came out strong - I'm sure Hollins will focus on getting an early lead through attacking the paint. I can see problems on the boards early on with PHX.
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