No rest for the wicked. Started a NBA thread last night. Thre some NCAABB picks on it too and I made pretty well off of it. So I'm going be a little superstitious and continue to do so.
Saturday's picks:
NCAABB: 4-2 (up 1.64 units)
NBA: 2-2 @ time of posting (-0.18 units)
Will post back very soon with a little gut feeling analysis.
Some spots I'm looking at in the college game:
MIAMI -2.5, simply because I feel a team playing at home off of pathetic performances bounce back. (2 of my sat picks were GT and MIZZOU- both panned out well). Miami came into conference play with a nice record but no competition. Since then we've seen them get whopped in ACC play. Going 0-5 ATS, with their lone win a 1 pointer vs WAKE. They've lost handily on the road 3 times (once to VT, revenge spot), and had BC on the ropes at home before gagging that one up. This team had better win now to prove something or their season is over. On the VT side, emotional in-state rivalry OT win. Banged up star. Look ahead to UNC at home. Seems like a tricky spot for the Hokies.
ARZ +2.5, The Wildcats are coming around now and I feel this is the type of game that defines the Pac-10. There's a reason this league can't get a ranked team. No squad can put together a solid 2 week run the get some attention. Last week CAL destroyed ORG at home just to follow it up with a narrow win vs ORG ST. Many feel that AZN ST had a chance to knock off CAL. CAL knocked them off, but they will be playing an athletic squad in the Wildcats. Crazy stat. 3 players for CAL (Boykin, Christopher and Randle) combined for 71 PTS against AZN ST! The final score was 78-70. Where's the supporting cast? Think this spells a little trouble for the BEARS...
MARY + 5.5, MARYLAND is better. CLEM is going to fade fast I believe. Their banged up. Players aren't stepping up. The Bookers are liabilities because bigs aren't afraid to play physical and foul. Could CLEM win? Of course. I'm worried on this one because CLEM didn't show up in BC (see MIAMI) and are getting Stitt back, presumably at 100%.
Tough college card on SUN. Your thoughts and comments are appreciated.
NBA feelings...
LAC +8.5. Teams off B2B 10+ pt losses @ Teams off B2B 10+ pt wins are 59-52-1 ATS. They are 32-23-1 ATS on the road, and 14-6-1 on the road with a better than .367 winning %. All that being said, they're still the Clippers... tough call.
SA -1.5. Nuggets match up very well with the Spurs. Billups vs Hill is an edge. They have the bigs to play against Duncan, and a bench that can score. That being said, Anthony may be out, and when the Spurs are challenged they seem to have a knack of coming through. Denver haven't lost by big spreads often, but when they have, they're 0-3 ATS. I think the Spurs start to out together the kind of run that makes you look at them in March and ask "how are they at the top of the standings).
LAL +2.5, this is pretty interesting. A veteran team like the Celts should be in a position here to say that enough is enough. A home game against the best team in the NBA after two tough road losses is a chance for them to make a statement. That being said, the Lakers started this trip off with a tough loss to CLE, lost to the second best squad they faced in TOR, and get the ABC spotlight here against their rivals. I think this team does not want to go back 4-3 with the wins coming against JV teams.
INDY +9
Bit of a revenge factor here for the Raps. Last game at INDY they had a 30 pt lead at one point. Lost in regulation...I like Indy here. I want to modify a stat actually.
Teams that are 0-3 SU and ATS in their last 3 games @ Teams that are 3-0 SU and ATS...
- 64-51-3 ATS
- 20-10-1 ATS as 10+ dogs
- 12-1-1 ATS as 10+ dogs in conference.
Indy is 0-2 SU and ATS in their last 2 and the line isn't @ 10 yet. But I'm still leaning Pacers...
Modifying trends isn't a habit I make but I want to point out that the Pacers just got rolled twice and teams coming off B2B 10+ losses get some decent value. Also, the Raptors have had numerous close games against elite competition. If you're a square your thoughts are "TOR beat LAL, LAL crushed IND. TOR at home. Take TOR"
I think the Pacers show up here and the Raptors are a bit complacent. This isn't necessarily a team that is used to winning and taking out bad teams. They play to their competition.
WILL LIKELY LAY OFF! But some food for thought here in the forum.
Before I kick it, some other thoughts on the games.
MIN +7. The gophers need a signature win at some point. Lost to purdue and twice to mch st. I want to say this team loses another close one.
USF +3. Just looks like a trap. I don't love it by any stretch but you scroll down the lines and you think this one should be 5.5 or 6.
PENN ST +15. Team needs a B10 win. Purdue still has issues. And Painter likes to empty his bench with big leads.
UVA +8. Transition points come off of turnovers and missed shots. UVA has a deliberate offense and has one of the lowest TO % in the country.
Too many dogs makes me nervous. Will post back 2morrow and may have some changes.
NBA
Minny -1.5. Revenge spot here for the Wolves. Knicks blow.
Suns +3.5. I have a theory here. The Rockets are best served with utilizing their role players and playing sound defence. However, they have a bit of a playgroun mentality and whenever they play the Suns they run with them, both teams ave gone over 100 pts easily in their last 4 contests, all suns Ws (SU and ATS). Last Rocket win and cover was 94-82 Houston. Running takes some of their weapons out of play and the Rockets suffer. Confidence is a funny thing. PHX didn't have it and found ways to lose- a win vs DAL could change this teams mentality.
Again will post with more solid reasoning tomorrow. But I'm out for now.
Established in 1995,
like lal +2.5 .det +4 game +5 .GL MR TRMCCART
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