Sorry to sound so ignorant, but where is "across the street"? I don't usually wager on basketball, but I thought I might give it a try this year. Saw this post and DAMN, Ax gets mad respect. I love it. Humble seems to be an understatement. From what I've read, we need more people like Ax on this forum. Good luck to all!
Ax-Thanks in advance. I think I will tail a little this year!
Thanks
Friend, "across the street" is where a few cappers and I go for some quiet time and in depth discussion on the day's action. BOL this season. 
Evening. I was wondering why you are thinking that Houston has value over the Jail Blazers.
The Rockets are a new team this year. They really have no star power. Ron Artest is gone, Yao is out for the year, and Luis Scola, newly acquired Trevor Ariza, Shane Battier and Aaron Brooks are there to lead the team. Carl Landry is a decent bench player, and the rest of the team doesnt impress me, especially on the road.
This Portland tean is almost at full strength. Rudy Fernandez should be playing tonight, Oden is starting, and Brandon Roy is a star. Throw in the home field advantage, and I like the Blazers to take this by 10 or more.
I saw the line went from 8.5 to 9.5 and back to 8.5 today, and I'm still not getting why it is going down.
Best of luck tonight. I'm trying to make some sense of these games tonight, pick two winners, and move to Wednesday!
Good Luck
Thank you sir and you have yourself a profitable season!
Evening. I was wondering why you are thinking that Houston has value over the Jail Blazers.
The Rockets are a new team this year. They really have no star power. Ron Artest is gone, Yao is out for the year, and Luis Scola, newly acquired Trevor Ariza, Shane Battier and Aaron Brooks are there to lead the team. Carl Landry is a decent bench player, and the rest of the team doesnt impress me, especially on the road.
This Portland tean is almost at full strength. Rudy Fernandez should be playing tonight, Oden is starting, and Brandon Roy is a star. Throw in the home field advantage, and I like the Blazers to take this by 10 or more.
I saw the line went from 8.5 to 9.5 and back to 8.5 today, and I'm still not getting why it is going down.
Best of luck tonight. I'm trying to make some sense of these games tonight, pick two winners, and move to Wednesday!
Good Luck
Sir, your fundamental analysis is on point.
Value calculations however is strictly based on current $$$ lines and the probabilty of an outcome occuring. Unfortunately, I have not the time to explain value caculations but there are vast resources on the net to explain it mathematically.
The basis is the current money line for a proposition. Most of the time this is -110. The other factor is the probability of that occurance coming to fruition. Plug those numbers into a formula and you will find your value.
Let's take that HOU +430 as an example. If HOU and POR played this game 100 times, I think HOU 'could' win 32 of those games. Winning only 32 times @ +430 would still give us a profit of $69 if we bet $100 for each game. Now look at this from the POR side at -470. Win 60% of the games and you still end up losing money.
This my friend is the basis of what I do and many here will tell you. I am a value hunter. BOL Sir.
The first couple of weeks only "token wagers" should be played ... there is much work to do before one takes the rubber band off the bulge in his/her pocket !!! Gather and analyze stats ... analyze team chemistry ... and analyze the teams hustle ... the first shots should not be taken before mid-November !!!
The first couple of weeks only "token wagers" should be played ... there is much work to do before one takes the rubber band off the bulge in his/her pocket !!! Gather and analyze stats ... analyze team chemistry ... and analyze the teams hustle ... the first shots should not be taken before mid-November !!!
For me personally, beer money until Thanksgiving. Then it's on!
Sir, your fundamental analysis is on point.
Value calculations however is strictly based on current $$$ lines and the probabilty of an outcome occuring. Unfortunately, I have not the time to explain value caculations but there are vast resources on the net to explain it mathematically.
The basis is the current money line for a proposition. Most of the time this is -110. The other factor is the probability of that occurance coming to fruition. Plug those numbers into a formula and you will find your value.
Let's take that HOU +430 as an example. If HOU and POR played this game 100 times, I think HOU 'could' win 32 of those games. Winning only 32 times @ +430 would still give us a profit of $69 if we bet $100 for each game. Now look at this from the POR side at -470. Win 60% of the games and you still end up losing money.
This my friend is the basis of what I do and many here will tell you. I am a value hunter. BOL Sir.
ROLL TIDE ROLL...they had their scare of the season. Back to business (I hope). BOL to you sir.
Established in 1995,
you and chump had quite the run.
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