There is no legit reason whatsoever that GS should be favored like this for the series.
These teams were very similar in the regular season and so far in the playoffs GS is only +0.4 per 100 better and that's playing a much easier schedule and having a Top 10 player EVER playing 11 of 16 games.
Everyone has soiled their pants over the Warriors beating the Blazers without Durant. That Portland team was a beat up total mess that had no hope of getting a stop. That whole series should be thrown out. The 32-1 record or whatever without Durant is also complete nonsense. Who cares? None of those teams were as good as the Raptors.
The Raptors have a great coach and plus defenders at every position, and plus-plus defenders at multiple positions. This is something the Warriors have never had to deal with during their run in the Finals. The Cavs defense of the last 4 years was utter trash ranking 29th, 27th, 18th, and 10th in PPP. GS lost the year the Cavs were 10th in PPP. Their luck of not facing a great defense runs out here and unfortunately for GS this is by far their worst team of the 5.
The Raptors have the better homecourt, better defense, better depth and best player. The ONLY reason this line is where it is is because of perception. The perception the Warriors are better without Durant. They aren't. The perception they are clicking. By beating trash, congrats. The perception that the Warriors have the experience and the Raptors will melt. But on that last point the REALITY is that the Raptors just went to war with two Top 4, elite teams. They dug deep, found themselves and learned to win as a group. And it's not like Kawhi Leonard doesn't have a Finals MVP, Danny Green hasn't had great Finals games, Ibaka hasn't played in the Finals, Gasol and Lowry haven't played a million playoff games. Really when you peel back the layers the experience edge the Warriors have falls apart and really the HUNGER edge of these players on Toronto that haven't won, the fans in that city that haven't won, the fans in that country that haven't won and are STARVING will matter much more than some phony Warriors experience edge.
The Raptors should be favored in this series and will win. Public opinion and narrative still weighs in heavily and this is Exhibit A. In a sports betting world getting bigger by the day and where edges get smaller by the day, we may never see major sports league have a series price this absurd again.
andarmarc
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