The Spurs -4 tomorrow @ Chicago

 

This line...

 

Too funny.

 

I'm gonna do a half-assed capping of the game right now just to humor the linesmakers.

Word of warning here. Very early days but a lot of money for SA and the line actually dropped temporarily and has now stabilized. I would watch this one a little more before pulling the trigger. Something is definetely fishy

I couldn't take San Antonio the way they're playing.  Can't take Chicago with all the big leads they let slip aways. 

 

I think you'll be lucky to pick the winner. 

To start things off, this line doesn't scare me one bit. Over 90% of the money coming in on the Spurs, doesn't matter.

 

This is practically the same exact situation the Suns were in a couple weeks back and I feel the same way I did back when I made this thread. One of the West's elite teams falls from grace after a tough stretch against other top squads, gets two days off to think about it and work on things, and then goes on the road and gets a short line against a team that has a slim chance at a playoff spot. Come on now.

 

In the situational spot I made the thread about, Suns came out firing and took a 19 point halftime lead and ended up winning and covering. I took them then and I took them again on Tuesday night as four point road faves in their rematch with Portland. Again, they won and covered, this time by double digits. The public was all over the Suns' balls both times, but you know what? The situation was right to take them so it didn't matter what casual bettors thought when they placed their bets.

 

And you couldn't take San Antonio because of "the way they're playing"? Surely it's not the Spurs at their best but look at who they've lost to. They're 1-6 in their last 7 and those 7 losses were to Detroit, New Orleans, Phoenix, Denver, and a red hot Philadelphia squad all on the ROAD and to Boston at home. And what exacerbated all of that is the lack of rest.

 

This is literally the busiest month in regards to number of fames in the Spurs franchise's history. They've already played 11 games this month which included three back-to-back spots and are scheduled for 18 games total in March. Ginobli has been banged up with a deep thigh bruise, Parker is just coming back from his injury, Udoka's been trying to get back and this is an OLD Spurs squad. This is the first time they've had two days rest this month and this is the first time getting to face a non-playoff team in the past two weeks. They haven't lost to a non-playoff team since January where they headed into Seattle on the second night of a back-to-back and lost by 3. Coincidentally, they proceeded to win 15 of their next 16 games including 11 in a row. Has everyone forgotten that streak ended just recently?

 

Finally, look at the line. 4, that magic number. Whenever I see a road team favored by 4, I love it. That means Vegas is expecting that team to win and cover. Let me tell you something about the 4. The only difference between the number 3 and the number 4 is just a measly point, right? WRONG. It's also the difference between a one-possession game and a two-possession game. That little point is the difference between road teams simply "keeping it close" and road teams straight up "winning decisively". More often than not, that will be the case. Prime example, Golden State being -2 at Sacramento the other day. That line scared the shit outta me. But Phoenix being -4 at Portland looked beautiful. Look at today, Jersey was 2.5 - 3 point home dogs against Atlanta and won straight up. Look at Charlotte being 3 point road chalk at Memphis on Monday and then losing by double digits. It's something I look out for.

 

Anyway...yeah. San Antonio wins SU.

Good write up Donut. You shed some light on me with that post.  Only thing that scares me with this game is TNT THURSDAY.

take the SPUR whatever!!!! they try to scare pll

Do you remember the Utah vs Chicago(home)??? setup game. Everyone got killed

sas has been too inconsistent lately, blowing leads of up to 20 points, i guess bulls also have a tendency to blow lead, so this game is up for grabs, public on sas, with only 3 games tom. anything to happen acc to a conspiracy theorist , lol

 

Well, you gotta realize something about Utah. I've said it once, twice, I'll say it again. Utah is pound-for-pound the worst road team in the league, and nothing surprises me when it comes to them playing away from home. You look at their recent road trip and you'll see an 18 point win over Boston along with losses to New Jersey and Chicago. It seems that external motivation is a major factor for that squad. They were going into that game on a 5-game winning streak which included victories over Dallas, Phoenix and Denver so it's clear that they were looking past Chicago. You also have to look at the fact Utah is basically locked into a top 4 playoff spot as the Northwest division leader and the closest team to them is a Denver squad that's slipping in the standings everyday.

 

San Antonio is not in that situation. Losers of 6 of their last 7 and freefalling in the standings, they can't afford to lose winnable games. As I mentioned, the last time they lost to a non-playoff contender was two months ago. And though they're going through a bad stretch right, one thing they've always been with Tim Duncan is consistent. The last time that the Spurs lost 5 straight games was during the 1996-97 season, the season they went 20-62 and right before they drafted Duncan. Unlike a team like Utah, the Spurs come through when they're supposed to and I don't see a team like Chicago being the ones to make history against San Antonio.

The line's already up to -4.5 BTW.

 

Dammit I knew I should've locked it in already.

Fantastic work, sir

 

I'm on this one myself

Golden State seemed like an easy pick 2 nights ago at -2 againt the Kings, didn't it?

 

Not at all, I addressed that in my write-up. I still get the shivers thinking about that line.

 

A GS team that had just barely escaped with a 3-point home win over Memphis going into Arco Arena where the Kings had been playing inspired basketball lately, winning 3 in a row over squads with better than .500 records, including the Lakers...

DONUT got a question for you - With the Knicks -4 tomorrow at home is that a line you would consider something you would be interested for a play?

Thanks Donut and I was kind of hoping I was wrong with it. Denver looks like a play. Your right about the NY/Memp - they are terrible and it does make you want to vomit.Thanks again Donut I will look into Denver/Jersey too. I am trying to play 1-3 games a day ,so maybe it will be 1.