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Thoughts on so called "value plays"

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Posted: #76
im trying to add totals to the system. one game catches my attention for tomorrow. memphis(93.2ppg) and indiana(91.5ppg) on the average will score 184.7 pts. defensively they allow 89.6ppg(memphis) and 89.3ppg(indiana) which is 178.9 pts. yet the total opened at 174 and is currently going down with public on the over. 

memphis-indiana under 174 

new york at home seems the easiest play for tomorrow laying only 3.5 points at home going for 3-0 season series. but we dont like easy plays...

brooklyn +3.5 
 
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Posted: #77
im liking the under play. last time these two teams met, it was 88-83 for a total of 171. the total for that game was set at 177. and now it was set lower at 174. you will need balls to lock this play in but we will see how this will turn out. BOL 
 
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Posted: #78
Quote Originally Posted by TsikenBreast:

im trying to add totals to the system. one game catches my attention for tomorrow. memphis(93.2ppg) and indiana(91.5ppg) on the average will score 184.7 pts. defensively they allow 89.6ppg(memphis) and 89.3ppg(indiana) which is 178.9 pts. yet the total opened at 174 and is currently going down with public on the over. 

memphis-indiana under 174 

new york at home seems the easiest play for tomorrow laying only 3.5 points at home going for 3-0 season series. but we dont like easy plays...

brooklyn +3.5 


Exactly no free lunch Good luck buddy
 
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Posted: #79
TsikenBreast any leans for tomorrows game? thanks! im from philippines also.
 
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Posted: #80
under 174. that line is begging for people to take the over.
 
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Posted: #81
if i may suggest a play on your thread... OVER on bobcats/rockets 206.5. all bobcats with a total of 200 or more is 1-8 on the under... i doubt that trend continues its too easy to take the under... also people are pounding the under.
 
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Posted: #82
Liking the under bol!
 
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Posted: #83
Good luck with your picks and all but this are just your picks.  This thread is nothing whatsoever to do with the term Value Play, or at least no more than any other thread where someone lists their picks with reasoning behind them.

BOL....
 
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Posted: #84
Ind/mem Under still good at 172?
 
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Posted: #85

Tsiken.....I agree I like memphis under as well...I got it at 172.  It does seem like they are beggin for over plays.

 

I do see your logic on the Nets but they arent home dogs.  In this scenario, I see the Knicks coming out and winning this game by more than 4.  I know the Nets have played as of late with the interim coach but NYK at home on MLK day may be too much to overcome.

Clearly NYK has the better talent, with Sumpert coming back helping defensively and Amare getting more and more reps.  Im kind of seeing a grind it out close game or something like we saw against detroit.

 

Let me know your thoughts.

 
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Posted: #86

Tsiken.....I agree I like memphis under as well...I got it at 172.  It does seem like they are beggin for over plays.

 

I do see your logic on the Nets but they arent home dogs.  In this scenario, I see the Knicks coming out and winning this game by more than 4.  I know the Nets have played as of late with the interim coach but NYK at home on MLK day may be too much to overcome.

Clearly NYK has the better talent, with Sumpert coming back helping defensively and Amare getting more and more reps.  Im kind of seeing a grind it out close game or something like we saw against detroit.

 

Let me know your thoughts.

 
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Posted: #87

I also took NO at home -6, I know that is a lot of pts but SAC doesnt play team defense and ball for that matter.

Took memphis -6 as well.  GL my man!

 
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Posted: #88
Leaning ATL as well
 
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Posted: #89
Devin HarrisAnthony MorrowDeShawn StevensonLou Williams
Atlanta Hawks

 

 

Not sure if I can still take ATL?  So many injuries

 
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Posted: #90
you on fire tsikenbreast!
 
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Posted: #91
Any play on Clips game?
 
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Posted: #92
woke up to a winner. mem-ind under 

that line was begging for over money til tipofff...


 
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Posted: #93
@gamblor

i dont know if its just me or nyk line is luring in ny backers. the knicks at home is clearly the better team, and what not better time to take them when they are only laying 3 points. but like i said, we dont want easy plays, thats why i took brooklyn. BOL 
 
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Posted: #94

Tsiken.....I ended up taking the Nets the way the day was going!  Win or lose, I like the pick!

I'm leaning Bulls, have any thoughts on that game?  I figure a 9:30est game for the Lakers body clock is in fact a 12:30pst game for them.  Any thoughts on this?

Keep up the good work  

 
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Posted: #95
and played yesterday in at 9am pst game..............they got to be all messed up going into a well playing bulls team.  Im not sure if Deng is a go though.
 
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Posted: #96
just saw the highlights of the mem-ind game. george hill point shaved made sure that game wont go overtime and go over the total. 

@gamblor
the lakers are really bad, so i wouldnt wanna touch that game. but a gun in my head, id probably say the bulls. why is a very popular team in the lakers getting points here? to lure in bettors perhaps? 
 
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Posted: #97

Nice call on Brooklyn

 

What you think about philly +6?  I see some reverse line movement on that line.  Line opened at +6.5 with 74% public action and line goes to +6.

 
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Posted: #98
Brooklyn +3.5 

Ytd 14-5

Good game at MSG, clutch plays by the nets downthe stretch including those blocks by lopez gotthe win for us. 
 
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Posted: #99
@gamblor

Seeing the line, im leaning spurs. But im not forcing a play.

You can call it bullcrap but i have this theory, 3 and 6 are the magic number in nba. If line opens at 3, usually the dogs covers. If the line opens at 6, usually the fave covers. 

Today: houston(faves) pushes, brooklyn and golden state(dogs) covers

BOL 
 
 
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Posted: #100
Any value plays for tomorrow? been tailing you since you started posting 
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