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TRAP HUNTER [5]

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Posted: #26
^^ So that ALL SEASON = DO that ALL SEASON
 
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Posted: #27
Quote Originally Posted by kosmos4:

not everything are traps, there are some intangible variables as well.

we do not look only at the line movement and public betting, bcause that would be easy. we look for disadvantages(yes, disadvantages) for the team that we are going to pick (i.e if the trap team has lots of injuries, using this method the probability of them being a legit trap team becomes higher) these are just some of the variables i look

1. past results
2. performance of players/teams in their last game
3. line movement and public movement
4. injuries
5. locker room issues

the more disadvantageous, the better. ill post my leans later.

schedule is also extremely important. And "spots"

IE- The celtics absolutely suck balls in the 2nd game of a b2b against the spread. Last year I made a fortune betting "against" the celtics in b2b games. And they  did not cover the spread 93% of the time (or around there)

this year its the same pattern for those old legs. They got annihilated by 20 points in New Orleans after playing miami the night before. And they could not cover even against the wizards after playing the night before. They TOTALLY SUCK in b2b.

I automatically place $500 against the celtics in ANY b2b setting. And I also place $200 "Against" them for the 1st half.

Do that ALL SEASON long and you will make thousands and thousands of dollars from the celtics alone.. and the spurs are the same in these b2b road spots. Those old legs never cover.

Just giving you an example of how "scheduling" also plays a significant role. Some teams it could be b2b, some teams it could be that they play poorly in altitude, some teams it could be they have a history of playing poorly in western coast roadtrips of 3 games or more. Some western teams it could be they have a histry ofm playing poorly on a 3/4 game eastern swing.

I could go on and on with many more examples of how scheduling is a HUGE factor as well. You cannot go on only one factor, but rather meld in ALL factors (including line movement) and then come to a logical conclusion
 
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Posted: #28
Is this really a trap line if you look at it logically? I mean the lakers on the road have been abysmal, they played last night and are old, and utah has yet to lose at home....
 
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Posted: #29
Quote Originally Posted by PR9:


schedule is also extremely important. And "spots"

IE- The celtics absolutely suck balls in the 2nd game of a b2b against the spread. Last year I made a fortune betting "against" the celtics in b2b games. And they  did not cover the spread 93% of the time (or around there)

this year its the same pattern for those old legs. They got annihilated by 20 points in New Orleans after playing miami the night before. And they could not cover even against the wizards after playing the night before. They TOTALLY SUCK in b2b.

I automatically place $500 against the celtics in ANY b2b setting. And I also place $200 "Against" them for the 1st half.

Do that ALL SEASON long and you will make thousands and thousands of dollars from the celtics alone.. and the spurs are the same in these b2b road spots. Those old legs never cover.

Just giving you an example of how "scheduling" also plays a significant role. Some teams it could be b2b, some teams it could be that they play poorly in altitude, some teams it could be they have a history of playing poorly in western coast roadtrips of 3 games or more. Some western teams it could be they have a histry ofm playing poorly on a 3/4 game eastern swing.

I could go on and on with many more examples of how scheduling is a HUGE factor as well. You cannot go on only one factor, but rather meld in ALL factors (including line movement) and then come to a logical conclusion


How do you feel about SA v Hou after playing in Mil last night and returning home? Currently SA -7 at my book.
 
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Posted: #30
Not to mention that visiting teams going to utah on a b2b playing the night before have a horrible record ATS in those games.

same thing for Denver. A visiting playing the night before then going into the high altitude air in denver against a rested denver team doesn't cover 87% of the time.

Same for phoenix to an extent. Just look how incredibly AWFUL Portland and Milwaukee looked playing in Phoenix on the 2nd game of a back to back after playing the night before on the road.

Of course I placed $500 on phx for both games. Visiting teams don't cover in those spots over 80% of the time.

I study this shit like Einstein on relativity !!

 
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Posted: #31

Any comments or insights on the 76ers @ the Knicks? Philly being a 4-point underdog on the road. With the way the Knicks and Philly have opened their respective seasons is the spread a disrespect to what the 76ers have done so far, or are we supposed to think that the star-studded Knicks line-up will cover the spread easily?

Since this thread focuses on traps, I thought this would be a good game to see how Vegas is trying to screw with our minds.

 
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Posted: #32
So PR9 can you place your card for today?
 
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Posted: #33
Quote Originally Posted by PR9:

Not to mention that visiting teams going to utah on a b2b playing the night before have a horrible record ATS in those games.

same thing for Denver. A visiting playing the night before then going into the high altitude air in denver against a rested denver team doesn't cover 87% of the time.

Same for phoenix to an extent. Just look how incredibly AWFUL Portland and Milwaukee looked playing in Phoenix on the 2nd game of a back to back after playing the night before on the road.

Of course I placed $500 on phx for both games. Visiting teams don't cover in those spots over 80% of the time.

I study this shit like Einstein on relativity !!



Where is your money at today PR9?
 
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Posted: #34
very very insightful posts PR9, it would be nice if you could post your plays too so we can get a better understanding of the way you cap your game. seems like most of the time we are on both sides of the coin.
 
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Posted: #35

PR9

i see that you write essay like analysis.......but never see you post a pick before tip off.

kosmos4

on the other hand you have great input and do post plays before game time. respect.

 
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Posted: #36
sound logic


I like the under in this game. 
 
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Posted: #37
We have another trap play here folks.. and it smells like ROTTEN FISH !

Vegas is trying to get as much money going to Portland as they can. They saw that 90% of the ML on most books earlier today was on Portland. They "reversed" the line intentionally trying to get more $$ on Port. 

At first, I thought the opening line was fishy to begin with at -3.5. I mean, just yesterday they were 5.5 pt favorites (which moved to -6) against a very nationally hyped team like the Clippers (and the clippers ALREADY beat the blazers this year). And now, the opening line was only -3.5 ??? 

Another  is the fact that they have since moved the line to -3 in a TOTAL reverse line movement saga yet again.

With that said..

ALWAYS be leary when a team plays a marquee matchup the night before of a b2b and impresses in a nice win in front of millions of people on National TV (as port did last night vs clips),  then you have a RLM going on against a rested team the next day !![ See Phx the other night when they destroyed this same Blazer team.

Blaze due for a home loss coming off an emotional home revenge game vs a nationally hyped team. And tonight is the perfect spot for it.  Magic are well rested with 2 days off and are gunning for this one.

Heavily leaning: Magic
 
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Posted: #38
Quote Originally Posted by cashinsports:

PR9

i see that you write essay like analysis.......but never see you post a pick before tip off.


I've done it Plenty of times. Here, take a look:


+


+



^^ Read up and look at all that success in those threads  ;-)

ps: some days I simply don't have time to post every play before gametime  as I did in those 3 threads. I make a lot of plays late sometimes, studying takes time, and make moves sometimes right before tipoff as line movement right before tipoff tells you who's going to cover (or win) 80+ % of the time. And of course, I have a family (wife and 2 kids) so time is not easy to come by. My wife is always on my ass because I spend so much time researching this shit as it is. lol


 
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Posted: #39
Quote Originally Posted by PR9:


I've done it Plenty of times. Here, take a look:


+


+



^^ Read up and look at all that success in those threads  ;-)

ps: some days I simply don't have time to post every play before gametime  as I did in those 3 threads. I make a lot of plays late sometimes, studying takes time, and make moves sometimes right before tipoff as line movement right before tipoff tells you who's going to cover (or win) 80+ % of the time. And of course, I have a family (wife and 2 kids) so time is not easy to come by. My wife is always on my ass because I spend so much time researching this shit as it is. lol


nothing personal and no bad intentions mate. my appologies.

i totally understand you. my wife is on my case too lol! thanks for sharing your input. greatly appreciated by all.

 
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Posted: #40

what you guys think about 76ers +4 tonight?

 GL to us on utah  

 
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Posted: #41
oops, the 2nd link brought you to the 2nd page of the thread. Meant to post the 1st page beginning with my picks thatt day. Here


As you see when scrolling down the page. I add picks as the day goes along via research. All "BEFORE" game time ;-)
 
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Posted: #42
Quote Originally Posted by PR9:

We have another trap play here folks.. and it smells like ROTTEN FISH !

Vegas is trying to get as much money going to Portland as they can. They saw that 90% of the ML on most books earlier today was on Portland. They "reversed" the line intentionally trying to get more $$ on Port. 

At first, I thought the opening line was fishy to begin with at -3.5. I mean, just yesterday they were 5.5 pt favorites (which moved to -6) against a very nationally hyped team like the Clippers (and the clippers ALREADY beat the blazers this year). And now, the opening line was only -3.5 ??? 

Another  is the fact that they have since moved the line to -3 in a TOTAL reverse line movement saga yet again.

With that said..

ALWAYS be leary when a team plays a marquee matchup the night before of a b2b and impresses in a nice win in front of millions of people on National TV (as port did last night vs clips),  then you have a RLM going on against a rested team the next day !![ See Phx the other night when they destroyed this same Blazer team.

Blaze due for a home loss coming off an emotional home revenge game vs a nationally hyped team. And tonight is the perfect spot for it.  Magic are well rested with 2 days off and are gunning for this one.

Heavily leaning: Magic

My fellow trappers. To add to the above, This line is a SHORT. Without Question !

The opening line DEFINITELY seems short. Not to mention the reverse line  movement since. This smells like ROTTEN Fish to be frank. Because,

Just yesterday this same Blazer team was -5.5 favorites against a nationally hyped-up team that vegas has the same [url="www.sbrforum.com/betting-odds"]odds[/url] as winning the title. Not only that, but the Clippers "already beat" Portland this season. Not only that, but the line moved to -6.

Now, this very same team, at the same venue, only opens at -3.5 against the Magic ? A team that the national basketball media has dubbed as a "problem child" team with the Howard fiasco and all the rumors going on every fukkin single day. Moreover, just the other day head coach Van Gundy said to the national media that his team simply "isn't good enough" to compete with the great teams in the league like the Bulls etc etc. Yet we have this line of +3 giving them so much respect against a BEAST of a home team that just went on national TV last night against a hyped team and imppressed ?

so it opens at just -3.5 compared to -5.5 yesterday against a team they already lost to an an incredibly hyped up team. And the line now is down to -3 currently.   

sorry, but it just does not add up.
 
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Posted: #43
Quote Originally Posted by PR9:


My fellow trappers. To add to the above, This line is a SHORT. Without Question !

The opening line DEFINITELY seems short. Not to mention the reverse line  movement since. This smells like ROTTEN Fish to be frank. Because,

Just yesterday this same Blazer team was -5.5 favorites against a nationally hyped-up team that vegas has the same [url="www.sbrforum.com/betting-odds"]odds[/url] as winning the title. Not only that, but the Clippers "already beat" Portland this season. Not only that, but the line moved to -6.

Now, this very same team, at the same venue, only opens at -3.5 against the Magic ? A team that the national basketball media has dubbed as a "problem child" team with the Howard fiasco and all the rumors going on every fukkin single day. Moreover, just the other day head coach Van Gundy said to the national media that his team simply "isn't good enough" to compete with the great teams in the league like the Bulls etc etc. Yet we have this line of +3 giving them so much respect against a BEAST of a home team that just went on national TV last night against a hyped team and imppressed ?

so it opens at just -3.5 compared to -5.5 yesterday against a team they already lost to an an incredibly hyped up team. And the line now is down to -3 currently.   

sorry, but it just does not add up.


Opening line makes sense to me. Scheduling plays a big part. Portland faces 2 powerhouse western conference teams in the Clippers yesterday and have to travel to San Antonio next game. In between these two they play Orlando. Classic sandwhich game. Orlando has noone to look forward to and is off 3-4 days rest. Opening line seems spot on in my opinion.
 
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Posted: #44
Quote Originally Posted by LeagueCapper:



Opening line makes sense to me. Scheduling plays a big part. Portland faces 2 powerhouse western conference teams in the Clippers yesterday and have to travel to San Antonio next game. In between these two they play Orlando. Classic sandwhich game. Orlando has noone to look forward to and is off 3-4 days rest. Opening line seems spot on in my opinion.

Vegas creates lines based on "perception". This is well documented.

ps- if it was a fair line then a vast majority of bets wouldn't be going to Port, (even the ML is 90% for portland with the public) ... and even with that - the line moved EVEN more to Portland's favor bringing even more bets on Port

I have seen this movie played a thousand and one times before over the years.
 
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Posted: #45

chicago lined drop 2 points despite 83% of people on the bulls...TRAP?

same goes for Oklahoma, they opened up at 8.5 favs now down 2 points to 6.5 despite 72% on the Thunder...

these are my two traps of the day, I also lean Orlando and Toronto

 
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Posted: #46
Quote Originally Posted by TheGoodfella:

chicago lined drop 2 points despite 83% of people on the bulls...TRAP?

same goes for Oklahoma, they opened up at 8.5 favs now down 2 points to 6.5 despite 72% on the Thunder...

these are my two traps of the day, I also lean Orlando and Toronto



DRose is out is why the line dropped there
 
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Posted: #47
Quote Originally Posted by PR9:


Vegas creates lines based on "perception". This is well documented.

ps- if it was a fair line then a vast majority of bets wouldn't be going to Port, (even the ML is 90% for portland with the public) ... and even with that - the line moved EVEN more to Portland's favor bringing even more bets on Port

I have seen this movie played a thousand and one times before over the years.


Yes smart money is on Orlando I wasn't arguing that, Was just trying to clarify that the opening line was correct. By the way "smart money" has been killin it the whole past week hitting most the plays but as you saw yesterday public had there day. I still like Portland to win here despite the RLM
 
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Posted: #48

im still trying to figure out how a play can be considered a trap play.


anyone?


thanks

 
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Posted: #49
Quote Originally Posted by bettorjon:

im still trying to figure out how a play can be considered a trap play.


anyone?


thanks



When the opening line opens up lower or higher then it should. For example the Wizards opened up yesterday as 2 point favorites after going 0-8 to start the year. That was a "trap" line. The opening line was enticing people to take the Raptors at a favorable +2 line. Wizards won by 20+
 
 
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