Trust the Chase - Year Long Thread

Mixed action for wolves and ind? Under game 6 and over game 2 for min?

With all the unpredictability of game outcomes like the Nets-Suns game last night, your system looks promising. 

If you see a strong play, do you just stick with 1unit ($14.40)play?  

@gomburzago

 1 unit for me is no longer $14.40 since we switched to an 8 game chase. I know its a LOT to read, but if you read the whole thread you'll be all caught up.

A unit for me, is $1 now.. and yep, I really do bet $1 on the game 1 plays. Having my base unit at $1 makes a game 8 play $2187.

Some people have asked me if they can follow the system if they can't afford a chase that costs that much. The answer is yes.

Decide what you want your total INVESTMENT per chase to be. If its $1000 for example, then decide how many games you want to be part of the chase, because you can't afford to do the entire 8 game chase. Maybe you ONLY chase games 5 through 8. You do not play ANY games under 5. 

That would make your game 5 wager $25, game 6 $75, game 7 $225 and game 8 $675 for a total of $1000.

@banksopenallday

 That's what I'm seeing too. I'll post todays plays now.

Todays plays are:

Knicks/Magic OVER - Magic are a game 1 play for 1 unit.

Hawks/Celtics OVER - Celtics are a game 3 play for 9 units.

Pacers/Wolves MIXED ACTION - Pacers are a game 6 play for 243 units on the UNDER, Wolves are a game 2 play for 3 units on the OVER.

Nuggets/Wizards OVER - Nuggets are a game 1 play for 1 unit.

Thunder/Grizzlies OVER - Thunder are a game 3 play for 9 units. 

Blazers/Pelicans OVER - Blazers are a game 1 play for 1 unit.

Heat/Warriors OVER - Warriors are a game 1 play for 1 unit.

@gomburzago

 I gotta say man, it's pretty sweet making money all year off the NBA and not even handicapping the games. I pull the trigger on what the system says. 189 wins, zero losses so far this year. I'm having a blast with it. Honestly blown away it hasn't picked up more steam here... I feel like the results are inarguable and way more effective than the average "LOCK OF THE YEAR" posts we see day in and day out.

how are you up if you never recovered the $3500 you lost on the heat? + the other heat losses on the way to the game 6 loss (games 1 thru 5)

you would need approx. 3500 game 1 wins to recoup just the game 6 loss, and if you lost on game 6 twice in a year it seems like game over....

even if all your other lower games hit it is not enough to overcome that $3500 + the other 5 losses on the way to the 3500$ loss......

not trying to blast you, just seems like your numbers are off

because even hitting on a game 5 is small profit, after accounting for the losses in games 1-4 (plus bet amount in game 5)

so basically are you positive your numbers are correct? and that all the small wins have overcome that original $4500+ loss when the heat lost game 6 for u

I see why you went to the 8 game system, more chances to not lose, so the 8 game is safer than the 6

I am very intrigued by your system as I like to beat the house in whichever way possible

@dubz4dummyz

 There's nothing to blast, so no offense taken. I owned up to the game 6 loss here in this thread. We only had one game 6 loss. We immediately switched to an 8 game chase, and have had some big hits since then. Yes, I am down for the year on this system as a result of the original game 6 loss. Had I been on the 8 game chase the ENTIRE year, I would have had zero losses so far... Goes to show how much stronger/safer the 8 game chase is than the 6 game chase.

My over system in the NBA, and the two team and three team+ hockey systems I have are up for the year, so I'm good. No offense taken, ask as many questions as you want. I don't hide behind fake numbers. All of my losses are well documented.

Here's the amount you WIN (already accounting for paying back your losses) for each game of the chase if your base unit is $1. In my scenario I make my bets to WIN my unit, IE I risk $1.10 to win $1 on game 1. I risk $9.90 to win $9 on game 3.

Game 1 - I risk $1.10 to win $1. Net profit of $1.

Game 2 - I risk $3.30 to win $3. Net profit of $1.90.

Game 3 - I risk $9.90 to win $9. Net profit of $4.60.

Game 4 - I risk $29.70 to win $27. Net profit of $17.10.

Game 5 - I risk $89.10 to win $81. Net profit of $41.40.

Game 6 - I risk 267.30 to win $243. Net profit of $153.90.

Game 7 - I risk $801.90 to win $729. Net profit of $372.60.

Game 8 - I risk $2405.70 to win $2187. Net profit of $1385.10.

Here's the current PER TEAM standings for the entire year on the 8 game chase method, with a grand total at the bottom. The two teams in the negative are currently on game 6... Meaning their current losses of games 1-5 are accounted for in this "Year To Date" total. This number represents a base unit of $1.60. My base unit is $1... so you can reduce this a bit for my particular personal financial situation. The base unit of $1.60 was for research purposes and is how my spreadsheet calculates each team. If anyone wants to whine about different numbers, they can redo the entire spreadsheet with a base unit of $1 instead of $1.60, and I can use that instead. Personally, I don't feel like re-doing it at the moment. :P

Pistons 20.63
Pacers -180.87
Bucks 68.8
Hawks 97.47
Hornets 75.49
Heat 503.8
Magic 40.13
Wizards 71.56
Nuggets 11.46
Twolves 56.3
Thunder 11.61
Blazers 16.84
Jazz 1455.72
Warriors 45.23
Clippers 15.53
Lakers 60.94
Suns 40.27
Kings 15.39
Mavs 15.11
Rockets 94.85
Grizzlies 68.66
Pelicans 30.68
Spurs -121.05
2941.85

@dubz4dummyz

 A game 5 win at $1 base unit is $41.40 profit by the way... or 41.4 units. You say that's a "small amount". Seems pretty solid to me.

game 7 sunday. Tho ind is in a bad spot against hou but lets go over

@banksopenallday

 Game 7 is an over play. I like that we get the rockets for that game. Game 8 is under.. So if we get to that Golden State scares me a bit... though their last game was 104-95

Last game against the Rockets was 114-107 but that doesn't mean much. Totally different Rockets team from a month ago.

The other good news is they'll have had 3 overs in a row, with this one being OT and an action packed shootout. Maybe some tired legs on Sunday? Idk though, that doesn't seem to mean shit anymore in the NBA lol.

@arakias

Yea because hou is unders at home but just trust the chase. Hopefully no game 8.

Magic move to game 2, Pacers move to game 7.

Celtics complete the chase on game 3 for +4.18 units, Wolves complete the chase on game 2 for +1.73 units, Nuggets complete the chase on game 1 for +0.91 units, Thunder complete the chase on game 3 for +4.18 units, Blazers complete the chase on game 1 for +0.91 units, Warriors complete the chase on game 1 for +0.91 units.

Chase is now 198-0. Bankroll is +2,031.77 units.

Only one measly game tonight... 

Nets/Lakers OVER - Lakers are a game 1 play for 1 unit.

Lakers move to game 2.

Todays games: 

Warriors/Magic OVER - Magic are a game 2 play for 3 units.

Nuggets/Cavs OVER - Cavs are a game 1 play for 1 unit.

Bulls/76ers OVER - Bulls are a game 1 play for 1 unit.

Pistons/Grizz OVER - Pistons are a game 1 play for 1 unit.

Thunder/Bucks OVER - Bucks are a game 1 play for 1 unit.

Raptors/Twolves OVER - Raptors are a game 1 play for 1 unit.

I've done a lot of back testing of systems lately and what I'm finding is that any system with this much volume simply is not as good as those without.

I'll be seeing the Pacers chase through to completion then stopping this for the year. Is it profitable? Seems to be. Is it undefeated on the year? Yes. However, compared to other systems that I'm working on or in, it is far less profitable and requires a MASSIVE amount of time to keep track of.

I highly suggest following my "Double Over" parlay system instead. 

If you want to continue this on your own, it's very easy.

When a team completes the chase, you wait for an UNDER to hit. When the under hits, you start the chase. Bet the total of each of that teams next 8 games until you win a bet. When you win, you wait for the under again to start the chase. The 8 game betting pattern is O-O-O-U-U-U-O-U. O is over, U is under.

You bet 1x, 2x, 3x, 5x, 8x, 12x, 18x, 25x. Whatever your unit is. Good luck. I'll continue posting/updating until the Pacers either win or lose the chase.

Edit: One more thing.. If you win on a game 4, 5, 6 or 8 (AKA on the under) that does NOT mean to start the chase again. You must wait for the teams NEXT under after the one that you won your wager on.

HEY BUDDY I WASNT IGNORING YOU!!! OR MAYBE I WAS 

THOUGHT ABOUT YOUR SYSTEM....THINK I FIGURED IT OUT FOR YA

YOU SHOULD BE RESEARCHING 8 GAME LOSING STREAKS AND SEEING HOW OFTEN THEY OCCUR.......WHICH TEAMS HAVE GONE LONGEST WITHOUT AN 8 GAME LOSING STREAK....PROBABLY A WHILE FOR SOME TEAMS

YOU SHOULD PICK A 17TH-24TH RANKED TEAM TO WIN, AND CHASE THE LOSS TIL THEY WIN.....YOU SHOULD BE ABLE TO GET ODDS OVER 1.60 ALMOST EVERY TIME AND IF THEY ARE PLAYING A TOP 10 TEAM THEY SHOULD BE UNDERDOG PAYING OVER 1.95+

IF YOU HAVE A WEBSITE YOU CAN SHARE THAT ALLOWS TO PLUG IN STATS TO FIND LOSING/WINNING STREAKS I WILL GLADLY HELP

LET ME KNOW HOPE THIS HELPS

I AM STILL NEW USER SO I ONLY GET 5 POST A DAY SO I MIGHT NOT RESPOND FOR A DAY OR 2

EDIT- FOR EXAMPLE THIS YEAR MAYBE THE HEAT WOULD BE A GOOD CHOICE....SOME GAMES THEY PAY WELL, PROBABLY WONT LOSE 8 STRAIGHT....HEAT MIGHT BE SLIGHTLY TOO HIGH RANKED/RESPECTED IN VEGAS.....MIGHT HAVE TO BE A SLIGHTLY WORSE TEAM.....

EDIT2- AND YOUR UNITS WOULD HAVE TO FLUCUATE A LITTLE BIT BASED ON THE ODDS CHANGING FROM GAME TO GAME TO COVER LOSSES....BUT IF YOUR BANKROLL BIG ENOUGH THAT SHOULDNT BE AN ISSUE....THE BIG THING IS MAKING SURE YOU PICK A TEAM THAT DOESNT GO ON A 8 GAME LOSING STREAK......GOTTA FIND OUT HOW OFTEN 8 GAME LOSING STREAKS HAPPEN......ITS THE BASIS FOR THIS THEORY

Thanks for your efforts