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    All Forums | NBA Betting Forum

    Trust's Money Management RETURNS!!!

    12 Next Last»
    trustandfall
    Itay2277
    thirdworld
    oilers4eva
    Bombatakbo
    ...
    Participants:
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    Views: 2180
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    12 Next Last»
     
    trustandfall
    trustandfall
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    Posted: Mar. 18, 2014 - 11:35 AM ET #1

    Some of you may remember me from the NFL, MLB, NCAAB and NBA forums. I used to post a LOT... but stopped pretty abruptly last August when my baby girl was born! My last post including picks was literally the day she was born, and I swept the board going 3-0.

    My style is to be ultra selective. I try to limit my plays to 3 or so a day across any and all sports, and NEVER make more than 5-6 in one day. I may rarely make a 2nd half play on a game if I feel there's exceptional value.

    Anyway, here's how my money management system works for those of you who don't know.

    So, I'll be starting with $10,000. Every wager made for the day from here on out will be 2% of my starting bankroll THAT DAY. Today, that equates to risking $200 on each play.

    Write-up's if requested as always. Thoughts/opinions welcome. I don't mind giving my mind on other games either.

    For those who don't know, I always start the system with $10,000. Every bet is 2% of whatever my starting balance was that day.

    Right now I'm at $10,000.     2% = $200

    My Tuesday pick(s):

    Washington Wizards -1 @ -115     Risking $200 to win $174.

    My other leans that I liked but won't be risking money on -

    Miami -9 (or 9.5 depending on your book)
    Toronto -3


    Best of luck to those who tail as always. 

    (Yes, I put my bet in last night when the lines first came out, but I'd still take them at -2 or -2.5)
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    To remove first post, remove entire topic.
    Some of you may remember me from the NFL, MLB, NCAAB and NBA forums. I used to post a LOT... but stopped pretty abruptly last August when my baby girl was born! My last post including picks was literally the day she was born, and I swept the board going 3-0.

    My style is to be ultra selective. I try to limit my plays to 3 or so a day across any and all sports, and NEVER make more than 5-6 in one day. I may rarely make a 2nd half play on a game if I feel there's exceptional value.

    Anyway, here's how my money management system works for those of you who don't know.

    So, I'll be starting with $10,000. Every wager made for the day from here on out will be 2% of my starting bankroll THAT DAY. Today, that equates to risking $200 on each play.

    Write-up's if requested as always. Thoughts/opinions welcome. I don't mind giving my mind on other games either.

    For those who don't know, I always start the system with $10,000. Every bet is 2% of whatever my starting balance was that day.

    Right now I'm at $10,000.     2% = $200

    My Tuesday pick(s):

    Washington Wizards -1 @ -115     Risking $200 to win $174.

    My other leans that I liked but won't be risking money on -

    Miami -9 (or 9.5 depending on your book)
    Toronto -3


    Best of luck to those who tail as always. 

    (Yes, I put my bet in last night when the lines first came out, but I'd still take them at -2 or -2.5)
     
    Itay2277
    Itay2277
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    Posted: Mar. 18, 2014 - 11:49 AM ET #2

    Hey, i don't know you but you look like a good guy, i have a question for u, if i have 1000$ bank roll, you still think 20$ is the price? If not then how much?
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    Hey, i don't know you but you look like a good guy, i have a question for u, if i have 1000$ bank roll, you still think 20$ is the price? If not then how much?
     
    trustandfall
    trustandfall
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    Posted: Mar. 18, 2014 - 11:57 AM ET #3

    Quote Originally Posted by Itay2277:

    Hey, i don't know you but you look like a good guy, i have a question for u, if i have 1000$ bank roll, you still think 20$ is the price? If not then how much?

    If you want to strictly follow my system, then yes, $20. 

    The guideline is to only risk 2% of your bankroll on ANY play. It's how most people I've ever met who make a living gambling have always told me to approach putting your money at risk. It allows you to be tremendously comfortable in getting hit by negative swings. You'll find you chase and press less when you don't panic after a loss. Best of luck. 
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    Quote Originally Posted by Itay2277:

    Hey, i don't know you but you look like a good guy, i have a question for u, if i have 1000$ bank roll, you still think 20$ is the price? If not then how much?

    If you want to strictly follow my system, then yes, $20. 

    The guideline is to only risk 2% of your bankroll on ANY play. It's how most people I've ever met who make a living gambling have always told me to approach putting your money at risk. It allows you to be tremendously comfortable in getting hit by negative swings. You'll find you chase and press less when you don't panic after a loss. Best of luck. 
     
    thirdworld
    thirdworld
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    Posted: Mar. 18, 2014 - 12:23 PM ET #4

    2% no matter what?! Whether your 60% sure of a bet or 80%  still bet 2%? 
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    2% no matter what?! Whether your 60% sure of a bet or 80%  still bet 2%? 
     
    oilers4eva
    oilers4eva
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    Posted: Mar. 18, 2014 - 12:24 PM ET #5

    Ty for your input
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    Ty for your input
     
    trustandfall
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    Posted: Mar. 18, 2014 - 12:32 PM ET #6

    Quote Originally Posted by thirdworld:

    2% no matter what?! Whether your 60% sure of a bet or 80%  still bet 2%? 

    Correct, the ideology behind it is that humans are too emotional.

    People get too invested in their beliefs and convince themselves that something is more "certain" or likely than it really is because they want to verify their own desires or thoughts.

    Betting the same amount in every wager (percent wise that is) is beneficial for two reasons.

    A) Less likely to chase and take large bad swings because you're too emotional.
    B) Helps to adhere to strict money management... Paramount in gambling and attempting to truly be profitable in the process.
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    Quote Originally Posted by thirdworld:

    2% no matter what?! Whether your 60% sure of a bet or 80%  still bet 2%? 

    Correct, the ideology behind it is that humans are too emotional.

    People get too invested in their beliefs and convince themselves that something is more "certain" or likely than it really is because they want to verify their own desires or thoughts.

    Betting the same amount in every wager (percent wise that is) is beneficial for two reasons.

    A) Less likely to chase and take large bad swings because you're too emotional.
    B) Helps to adhere to strict money management... Paramount in gambling and attempting to truly be profitable in the process.
     
    Bombatakbo
    Bombatakbo
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    Posted: Mar. 18, 2014 - 12:57 PM ET #7

    Just sooo goddamn hard if you start losing
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    Just sooo goddamn hard if you start losing
     
    insatiable
    insatiable
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    Posted: Mar. 18, 2014 - 12:59 PM ET #8

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    trustandfall
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    Posted: Mar. 18, 2014 - 1:03 PM ET #9

    Quote Originally Posted by Bombatakbo:

    Just sooo goddamn hard if you start losing

    You'd be surprised.... It actually makes it much much easier IMO. 

    Many people have followed me and made some good modest money. But I'll let the results show for themselves! BOL to all who follow.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bombatakbo:

    Just sooo goddamn hard if you start losing

    You'd be surprised.... It actually makes it much much easier IMO. 

    Many people have followed me and made some good modest money. But I'll let the results show for themselves! BOL to all who follow.
     
    trustandfall
    trustandfall
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    Posted: Mar. 18, 2014 - 1:19 PM ET #10

    I'm going to pull the trigger on Orlando at anything above 13... They're +13 at -105 right now at my book... 
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    I'm going to pull the trigger on Orlando at anything above 13... They're +13 at -105 right now at my book... 
     
    trustandfall
    trustandfall
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    Posted: Mar. 18, 2014 - 1:49 PM ET #11

    Going to finalize my card with...

    Washington -1 (-115) @ $200/$174
    Cleveland +10 (-110) @ $200/$182
    Orl/GS O202.2 (-120) @ $200/$167


    And if I can get Orlando at +13.5 or better, I'll be wagering $200/$182 assuming its at -110.

    Best of luck today everyone. I was on the fence about Cleveland, but I'm going to trust my gut. I also loved Toronto, but Atlanta's been playing well... I had them on the ML yesterday and it paid off nicely. Going to trust my gut here as well and just stay off the game.
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    Going to finalize my card with...

    Washington -1 (-115) @ $200/$174
    Cleveland +10 (-110) @ $200/$182
    Orl/GS O202.2 (-120) @ $200/$167


    And if I can get Orlando at +13.5 or better, I'll be wagering $200/$182 assuming its at -110.

    Best of luck today everyone. I was on the fence about Cleveland, but I'm going to trust my gut. I also loved Toronto, but Atlanta's been playing well... I had them on the ML yesterday and it paid off nicely. Going to trust my gut here as well and just stay off the game.
     
    trustandfall
    trustandfall
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    Posted: Mar. 18, 2014 - 1:50 PM ET #12

    ORL/GS O 202.5 that is.
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    ORL/GS O 202.5 that is.
     
    StraightWagers
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    Posted: Mar. 18, 2014 - 1:58 PM ET #13

    Quote Originally Posted by trustandfall:


    Correct, the ideology behind it is that humans are too emotional.

    People get too invested in their beliefs and convince themselves that something is more "certain" or likely than it really is because they want to verify their own desires or thoughts.

    Betting the same amount in every wager (percent wise that is) is beneficial for two reasons.

    A) Less likely to chase and take large bad swings because you're too emotional.
    B) Helps to adhere to strict money management... Paramount in gambling and attempting to truly be profitable in the process.

     

    great advice and what I adhere to too although I go 3.3% as my max of current bankroll, in addition using this method keeps an honest record and that is really valuable too for you and people tailing or fading

    undertaker
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    Quote Originally Posted by trustandfall:


    Correct, the ideology behind it is that humans are too emotional.

    People get too invested in their beliefs and convince themselves that something is more "certain" or likely than it really is because they want to verify their own desires or thoughts.

    Betting the same amount in every wager (percent wise that is) is beneficial for two reasons.

    A) Less likely to chase and take large bad swings because you're too emotional.
    B) Helps to adhere to strict money management... Paramount in gambling and attempting to truly be profitable in the process.

     

    great advice and what I adhere to too although I go 3.3% as my max of current bankroll, in addition using this method keeps an honest record and that is really valuable too for you and people tailing or fading

     
    VenomLugz
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    Posted: Mar. 18, 2014 - 2:08 PM ET #14

    I don't know you but I will follow your systems. :)
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    I don't know you but I will follow your systems. :)
     
    nhelzky
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    Posted: Mar. 18, 2014 - 2:32 PM ET #15

    very nice. seems to be light and not to agressive. poker is a real example of gambling. if you lose in your pocket ace. bad beat. and you go all in in next card whatever it is. being emotional let you lose. just breathe and think. if you lose, study the game and be poker face haha
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    very nice. seems to be light and not to agressive. poker is a real example of gambling. if you lose in your pocket ace. bad beat. and you go all in in next card whatever it is. being emotional let you lose. just breathe and think. if you lose, study the game and be poker face haha
     
    trustandfall
    trustandfall
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    Posted: Mar. 18, 2014 - 3:28 PM ET #16

    Quote Originally Posted by nhelzky:

    very nice. seems to be light and not to agressive. poker is a real example of gambling. if you lose in your pocket ace. bad beat. and you go all in in next card whatever it is. being emotional let you lose. just breathe and think. if you lose, study the game and be poker face haha

    Funny you say that... I'm from south Texas and ive grown up with people who have learned from and played with poker legends like Amaeillo Slim and Dodie Roach. Everything I know about bankroll management I've learned from poker players, some of whom also dabbled in sports betting.
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    Quote Originally Posted by nhelzky:

    very nice. seems to be light and not to agressive. poker is a real example of gambling. if you lose in your pocket ace. bad beat. and you go all in in next card whatever it is. being emotional let you lose. just breathe and think. if you lose, study the game and be poker face haha

    Funny you say that... I'm from south Texas and ive grown up with people who have learned from and played with poker legends like Amaeillo Slim and Dodie Roach. Everything I know about bankroll management I've learned from poker players, some of whom also dabbled in sports betting.
     
    Carlton919
    Carlton919
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    Posted: Mar. 18, 2014 - 3:41 PM ET #17

    Quote Originally Posted by trustandfall:

    Going to finalize my card with...

    Washington -1 (-115) @ $200/$174
    Cleveland +10 (-110) @ $200/$182
    Orl/GS O202.2 (-120) @ $200/$167


    And if I can get Orlando at +13.5 or better, I'll be wagering $200/$182 assuming its at -110.

    Best of luck today everyone. I was on the fence about Cleveland, but I'm going to trust my gut. I also loved Toronto, but Atlanta's been playing well... I had them on the ML yesterday and it paid off nicely. Going to trust my gut here as well and just stay off the game.

    With you on:

    Washington -1
    Cleveland +10
    I like the over but not enough to wager instead I took Orlando+13

    I use the same Bankroll management for years, it is mathematically proven to give the best chance of not going bankrupt. 
    BOL to us 


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    Quote Originally Posted by trustandfall:

    Going to finalize my card with...

    Washington -1 (-115) @ $200/$174
    Cleveland +10 (-110) @ $200/$182
    Orl/GS O202.2 (-120) @ $200/$167


    And if I can get Orlando at +13.5 or better, I'll be wagering $200/$182 assuming its at -110.

    Best of luck today everyone. I was on the fence about Cleveland, but I'm going to trust my gut. I also loved Toronto, but Atlanta's been playing well... I had them on the ML yesterday and it paid off nicely. Going to trust my gut here as well and just stay off the game.

    With you on:

    Washington -1
    Cleveland +10
    I like the over but not enough to wager instead I took Orlando+13

    I use the same Bankroll management for years, it is mathematically proven to give the best chance of not going bankrupt. 
    BOL to us 


     
    215Hustler
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    Posted: Mar. 18, 2014 - 4:23 PM ET #18

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    sfg8
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    Posted: Mar. 18, 2014 - 4:29 PM ET #19

    i like the money managemnt concept....i do that as well...$$ managemnt is more than half the battle if u ask me...anyway best of luck with pix tonight...like your > gsw-orl play...i'd be on orl and 13.5 as well...
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    i like the money managemnt concept....i do that as well...$$ managemnt is more than half the battle if u ask me...anyway best of luck with pix tonight...like your > gsw-orl play...i'd be on orl and 13.5 as well...
     
    trustandfall
    trustandfall
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    Posts: 2013
    Posted: Mar. 18, 2014 - 5:38 PM ET #20

    Here's hoping for a good night for all of us!
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    Here's hoping for a good night for all of us!
     
    patcan
    patcan
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    Posts: 134
    Posted: Mar. 18, 2014 - 6:17 PM ET #21

    Is there a limit of overall bets a day?
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    Is there a limit of overall bets a day?
     
    Brobeans
    Brobeans
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    Posts: 1195
    Posted: Mar. 18, 2014 - 6:21 PM ET #22

    you were leaning miami then took cleveland? 
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    you were leaning miami then took cleveland? 
     
    trustandfall
    trustandfall
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    Posted: Mar. 18, 2014 - 6:44 PM ET #23

    Pat, it's in the first post.
    Brobeans, yes.
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    Pat, it's in the first post.
    Brobeans, yes.
     
    trustandfall
    trustandfall
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    Posts: 2013
    Posted: Mar. 18, 2014 - 9:35 PM ET #24

    Cavs + 10 = 


    1-0 start.

    New bankroll = $10,182

    2 games still to go tonight.
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    Cavs + 10 = 


    1-0 start.

    New bankroll = $10,182

    2 games still to go tonight.
     
     
    steve2412
    steve2412
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    Joined: Feb, 2013
    Posts: 484
    Posted: Mar. 18, 2014 - 9:48 PM ET #25

    I was absolutely demolished by nba this year AGAIN, but i like your style im going to hop on board and hopefully can recoup some 

    BOL buddy got another follower
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    I was absolutely demolished by nba this year AGAIN, but i like your style im going to hop on board and hopefully can recoup some 

    BOL buddy got another follower
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