Posted:
#1
All-Time Posted NBA ATS: 10-4-0
It's been awhile since I've posted a pick but I've been doing pretty well lately so I thought I'd share tonight's play.
Indiana +9 is the pick. Here's why:
First off, let's take a look at the game from a Vegas perspective. The public is on Orlando, about 60/40 according to Wagerline and 86/14 according to Logans. The line, depending on the book, has dropped about a point from it's opening at 10, meaning that, as more and more people side with the Magic, Vegas is encouraging even more action on the Magic, or, in simpler terms, there is considerable reverse line movement. Orlando's ATS dominance this season has earned them a very strong public perception. After their win against the Lakers on the road a week ago, they were overvalued against Boston as 5 point favorites, and Boston ended up covering by 15. Still, bettors have grown to appreciate the Magic's otherwise steady ATS behavior, and odds-makers have caught on, blowing up tonight's spread against a formidable Indiana squad. As the public is putting more and more money on Orlando, Vegas is licking their chops.
Vegas' intentions aside, 9 points is simply too much for the Magic to be giving the Pacers at this point in their season. The Magic were smoking hot but came back to earth with two consecutive losses, one at home and one to the Heat. Anyone remember what happened after Boston's marathon winning streak was snapped on Christmas day by the Lakeshow? Boston was crippled for weeks. Now the Magic are in the same situation, only they don't have the veteran leadership and experience the Celtics have.
Throughout this forum I see Magic backers claiming "that the Magic are ready to bounce back after a tough loss to Miami on the road." Is that really the best reason there is to take the Magic? Because they "need" a bounce back game? Look, the Magic aren't the Celtics or the Lakers. They can't destroy teams on command. Sure, they went on a hot streak, but a 10 point loss at home and a loss to Miami make one thing clear: they aren't all they're hyped up to be.
The Pacers go into this game having lost their last 5 away games, and that may be contributing to the public love for Orlando. Only in one of those games, however, did they lose by more than 7, and that was to the Spurs when they had their poorest shooting percentage of the season. Their other games have come down to the wire (See: CP3 buzzer beater on 1/19). They've beaten Houston, Detroit, and Toronto in their last 6 games overall, demonstrating that they are at least capable of winning, and have gone 8-2 ATS in their last 10. The Pacers' best player is Danny Granger, a player who won't be affected by Dwight Howard's inside defensive presence because of his ability to hit the mid/long-range jumpers.
Take the 9 points. That's a lot of points for a team on a two game losing steak to give to a somewhat steady team that knows how to Cover.
Good luck
It's been awhile since I've posted a pick but I've been doing pretty well lately so I thought I'd share tonight's play.
Indiana +9 is the pick. Here's why:
First off, let's take a look at the game from a Vegas perspective. The public is on Orlando, about 60/40 according to Wagerline and 86/14 according to Logans. The line, depending on the book, has dropped about a point from it's opening at 10, meaning that, as more and more people side with the Magic, Vegas is encouraging even more action on the Magic, or, in simpler terms, there is considerable reverse line movement. Orlando's ATS dominance this season has earned them a very strong public perception. After their win against the Lakers on the road a week ago, they were overvalued against Boston as 5 point favorites, and Boston ended up covering by 15. Still, bettors have grown to appreciate the Magic's otherwise steady ATS behavior, and odds-makers have caught on, blowing up tonight's spread against a formidable Indiana squad. As the public is putting more and more money on Orlando, Vegas is licking their chops.
Vegas' intentions aside, 9 points is simply too much for the Magic to be giving the Pacers at this point in their season. The Magic were smoking hot but came back to earth with two consecutive losses, one at home and one to the Heat. Anyone remember what happened after Boston's marathon winning streak was snapped on Christmas day by the Lakeshow? Boston was crippled for weeks. Now the Magic are in the same situation, only they don't have the veteran leadership and experience the Celtics have.
Throughout this forum I see Magic backers claiming "that the Magic are ready to bounce back after a tough loss to Miami on the road." Is that really the best reason there is to take the Magic? Because they "need" a bounce back game? Look, the Magic aren't the Celtics or the Lakers. They can't destroy teams on command. Sure, they went on a hot streak, but a 10 point loss at home and a loss to Miami make one thing clear: they aren't all they're hyped up to be.
The Pacers go into this game having lost their last 5 away games, and that may be contributing to the public love for Orlando. Only in one of those games, however, did they lose by more than 7, and that was to the Spurs when they had their poorest shooting percentage of the season. Their other games have come down to the wire (See: CP3 buzzer beater on 1/19). They've beaten Houston, Detroit, and Toronto in their last 6 games overall, demonstrating that they are at least capable of winning, and have gone 8-2 ATS in their last 10. The Pacers' best player is Danny Granger, a player who won't be affected by Dwight Howard's inside defensive presence because of his ability to hit the mid/long-range jumpers.
Take the 9 points. That's a lot of points for a team on a two game losing steak to give to a somewhat steady team that knows how to Cover.
Good luck
goood luck tonite im adding indy to my picks now 
.............good shit......I'm feeling it.................gl
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