Vegas sets lines based on something more than match ups and shooting percentages. They smartly assumed home teams Bos and Lak would play close, tough games today. Instead of setting the lines at -7 or -8 based on stats they set them at -3 or -3.5. the public sees that and says, "Mia and Okc are better by at least two buckets. i'll back the favs." Thereby getting most of the public money on the wrong side.
i'm not saying i'm smart enough to see this everytime but i do know that when the "better" team doesn't cover it's not because the game was fixed. it was because vegas is better at capping games than the vast majority of bettors.
Vegas sets lines based on something more than match ups and shooting percentages. They smartly assumed home teams Bos and Lak would play close, tough games today. Instead of setting the lines at -7 or -8 based on stats they set them at -3 or -3.5. the public sees that and says, "Mia and Okc are better by at least two buckets. i'll back the favs." Thereby getting most of the public money on the wrong side.
i'm not saying i'm smart enough to see this everytime but i do know that when the "better" team doesn't cover it's not because the game was fixed. it was because vegas is better at capping games than the vast majority of bettors.
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