Quote Originally Posted by begginerboy:
Imb, it is an interesting game sandwiched between two revenge games against real rivals, the Cavs, whom the Warriors just beat, and the Rockets who beat the Warriors at home. Normally this would be a letdown spot (after the big win) and a lookahead spot (revenge) for a basketball team, but with the Thunder and Russ coming into town I am sure the mindset of the Warriors will be a little different. Still, -12 is not a number I like because of the factors I mentioned.
I think the Rockets game coming up might be a better opportunity. Rockets have shown signs that they are coming down to earth after their hot start, and with the Warriors looking for revenge, they could be in trouble. That will be their 7th game in 10 nights (including three road games) and only the Warriors 5th game in 10 nights, with the Rockets game being their first road game in a while. I imagine the Warriors will be 4-5 point favorites, which is a good line to back them at.
We might as well make this another play since I already capped it and the line is exactly where I thought it would be at: -4.5/-5 depending on where you bet. Let's call this the Warriors mini-statement game. Here is what I like about this game:
1) This is a revenge game for the Warriors against a team they don't like and a player they don't particularly like (James Harden). Both Curry and Green fouled out of that game that went to double OT and they were both angry and disgusted. There is a lot of history between these teams, from Harden losing the MVP to Curry, to Howard and his cheap shots, and finally to the Rockets for "indirectly" causing Curry's knee injury with their reckless play which ended up costing them the Championship. And let's not forget Durant's history with these Rockets the year Beverly injured Westbrook in the playoffs and ended the chances of an excellent Thunder team.
2) The Warriors have yet to beat one of the top Western foes (forget the Clippers, they are perennial losers). Warriors have lost to SA, the Rockets and the Grizz (twice). Lose twice to the Rockets, and all the doubters and naysayers will come out of the woodworks again.
3) The Warriors are vastly improved since they played the Rockets last, both in terms of chemistry and statistically.
4) The Warriors have been very good in revenge spots with Kerr as coach. They were up by 19 in the 4th against the Grizz when they fell sleep.
5) Harden is probably going to be the MVP and now he faces two former MVP's who will be try to outshine him. Harden has also been talking smack about how the Rockets should be considered as one of the top teams because they beat the Warriors. So Warriors need to reestablish the pecking order.
6) This will be the Rockets 7th game in 11 days and the 3rd game in 4 nights. In addition, the Rockets have had one back to back and two separate road trips in that time and are going on the road again after this game. That is a lot of mileage for a jump-shooting team. In contrast, the Warriors have been home during this entire stretch and this will only be their 5th game in 11 days and 3rd game in 5 nights.
7) This will also be the Warriors first road game as they go on a long road trip. In the Steve Kerr era, the Warriors have won the first game of every road trip of more than two games with one exception. And that was in a massive look-ahead spot where they lost to the Pistons before facing the Cavs in Cleveland on MLK day last year. There is no look-ahead in this spot.
8) In a long NBA season, things can get tedious, and teams need to set little goals for themselves from time to time. I can imagine the Warriors having circled these three games on their calendar, Cavs, Thunder, Rockets (all televised games and all involving bitter foes) and made it a goal to win all three.
9) Warriors will be without David West for a couple of weeks which might affect the rotation some, but he does not really match up with the Rockets perimeter guys anyway.
As for the Rockets:
1) Their three point shooting is always a threat and if they go off they can potentially win or cover the game.
2) They want to be considered in the conversation of top teams in the West, and beating the Warriors again will go a long way in doing that.
3) They have a knack for getting other teams/players frustrated, which might come into play if they get one of the Warriors tossed out of the game.
The Play: Warriors -4.5 or -5