Wednesday Night - NBA

Question

&#x27;10-11 NBA:  90-67  (57.3%)  &#x2B;19.90u&#x27;10-11 NBA-P:  30-16  (65.2%)  &#x2B;18.25u&#x27;10-11 NCAAB:  8-1  (88.9%)  &#x2B;7.90u&#x27;10-11 NHL-P:  11-4  (73.3%)  &#x2B;7.00u&#x27;10-11 MLB:  97-66  (59.8%)  &#x2B;31.61u&#x27;10-11 MLB-P:  9-3  (75.0%)  &#x2B;9.22u&#x27;11-12 NCAAF:  16-21  (43.2%)  -7.40u&#x27;11-12 NCAAF-P:  9-6  (60.0%)  &#x2B;1.65u&#x27;11-12 NFL:  42-35-1  (54.5%)  &#x2B;5.05u&#x27;11-12 NFL-P:  5-5  (50.0%)  -0.40u&#x27;11-12 NCAAB:  9-3  (75.0%)  &#x2B;5.70u&#x27;11-12 NBA:  57-53-1 (51.8%)  &#x2B;1.58uML Parlay - Philadelphia 76ers ML &amp; San Antonio Spurs ML (-120)This wager doesn&#x27;t need much of a write-up.  We have two spectacular home teams playing with rest against two opponents playing on a back to back and third in four nights.  Even before fatigue is factored into the lines, my model projects both teams to win by 6 points.  Boston has an away PSR of -2.8 and Philadelphia has a home PSR of &#x2B;4.4 making a true line of Philadelphia -7.2.  New York has an away PSR of -1.4 and San Antonio has a home PSR of &#x2B;4.7 making a true line of San Antonio -6.1.  I&#x27;ve done this a few times this season with varying success but I can&#x27;t seem to pass up the value of getting two teams I project to win by 6 or more points effectively teased down to PK at low juice.  In this case I&#x27;m getting a 7 point teaser at -120 odds.

si1ly · Answer

&#x27;10-11 NBA:  90-67  (57.3%)  &#x2B;19.90u&#x27;10-11 NBA-P:  30-16  (65.2%)  &#x2B;18.25u&#x27;10-11 NCAAB:  8-1  (88.9%)  &#x2B;7.90u&#x27;10-11 NHL-P:  11-4  (73.3%)  &#x2B;7.00u&#x27;10-11 MLB:  97-66  (59.8%)  &#x2B;31.61u&#x27;10-11 MLB-P:  9-3  (75.0%)  &#x2B;9.22u&#x27;11-12 NCAAF:  16-21  (43.2%)  -7.40u&#x27;11-12 NCAAF-P:  9-6  (60.0%)  &#x2B;1.65u&#x27;11-12 NFL:  42-35-1  (54.5%)  &#x2B;5.05u&#x27;11-12 NFL-P:  5-5  (50.0%)  -0.40u&#x27;11-12 NCAAB:  9-3  (75.0%)  &#x2B;5.70u&#x27;11-12 NBA:  57-53-1 (51.8%)  &#x2B;1.58uML Parlay - Philadelphia 76ers ML &amp; San Antonio Spurs ML (-120)This wager doesn&#x27;t need much of a write-up.  We have two spectacular home teams playing with rest against two opponents playing on a back to back and third in four nights.  Even before fatigue is factored into the lines, my model projects both teams to win by 6 points.  Boston has an away PSR of -2.8 and Philadelphia has a home PSR of &#x2B;4.4 making a true line of Philadelphia -7.2.  New York has an away PSR of -1.4 and San Antonio has a home PSR of &#x2B;4.7 making a true line of San Antonio -6.1.  I&#x27;ve done this a few times this season with varying success but I can&#x27;t seem to pass up the value of getting two teams I project to win by 6 or more points effectively teased down to PK at low juice.  In this case I&#x27;m getting a 7 point teaser at -120 odds.

si1ly · Answer

7:05 EST - Boston Celtics @ Philadelphia 76ers Under 177(-110)Oddsmakers aren&#x27;t hiding anything with this line as it is the lowest total by 10 points.  Basically we have two jump shooting teams playing against two of the best jump shooting defenses in the NBA.  Boston attempts 71% of their offense by jump shots and they hold opponents to a jump shooting eFG% of only 39.0%.  Philadelphia attempts the highest percentage of their offense by jump shots at a staggering 77%.  They&#x27;re slightly better than the Celtics at defending this shot type holding opponents to an eFG% of 38.2%.  Both of those defensive numbers are top 5.  Both teams prefer half court sets and run at a slow pace in general.  They are tied at the third slowest pace in the NBA at 91.4 possessions per 48 minutes.  Boston is playing on a back to back and their third game in four nights following 2 straight overtime wins.  This will undoubtedly hurt their jump shooting percentage and will force them to slow the pace down even more.  One final factor in play is offensive rebounding differential.  Both teams are horrible at bringing down offensive boards (Celtics are last in the league at -5.60 and Philadelphia is 7th worst also with a negative differential at -2.15.  This means neither team will have many second chance opportunities after their missed jump shots.  I would be surprised if this total ecplises the 170 mark.  I&#x27;ve got this one projected at Philadelphia 86 Boston 79.9:05 EST - Cleveland Cavaliers @ Denver Nuggets Over 207(-110)I bet the under in the lowest total on the card so I guess I should bet the over on the highest total.  Denver is playing their third game in four nights against a desperate Cleveland team.  They&#x27;re already a pretty poor defensive team so you can expect them to overlook this Cleveland team a little bit and relax on the defensive end.  A couple factors in place tonight favor the over.  Both teams like to push the pace (Denver runs at the fastest pace at 97.1 possessions per 48 minutes and Cleveland runs at the 9th fastest pace at 94.5 possessions).  Both teams are also very good at getting to the free throw line (Denver ranks #2 in offensive free throw rate at 34.4% and Cleveland ranks #7 at 31.4%).  Cleveland&#x27;s youth at the guard position has also resulted in a high turnover rate as they have the 9th highest offensive turnover rate.  Varejao has been irreplaceable in Cleveland&#x27;s interior defense.  Since his injury they have trended down in all major interior defensive categories including points in the paint, offensive rebounding differential and effective field goal percentage at the rim.  Denver lives at the rim so it&#x27;s safe to say they&#x27;ll have some success tonight getting easy buckets.  On the other side of the coin, Denver is very poor at defending the three point line.  They allow opponents attempt the most three pointers per game and hit them at the 5th highest eFG%.  This bodes well for a Cleveland team that likes to generate a relatively high percentage of their offense with the long ball (8th highest rate at 22.4%).  Look for this game to have a fast pace with little emphasis on the defensive end.  This will translate into a lot of free throws, easy buckets at the rim and a high percentage of three pointers hit.  Both teams will have no problem eclipsing the century mark.

Sal_Tessio · Answer

si1ly, do you happen to know if you are doing better on NBA totals than NBA sides this year?  You nailed that Dallas under last night, much to my dismay.

ionutt79 · Answer

best of luck

figgity07 · Answer

wow unpredictable for once.  GOOD LUCK.... Finally like one of your cards.

si1ly · Answer

@sal I think Ive had slightly more success with totals this season.. but I like to think I have a good read on any wager I make.

afgking4life · Answer

Which one is your top play si1ly? I really like that Over in the Nuggets game!

lakers9 · Answer

i like that ML parlay, and i just locked it in(it was-125 for me)&#xD;&#xA;goodluck tonight!!

si1ly · Answer

Thanks guys.  None of these plays are stronger than the other.  Good luck tonight!

si1ly · Answer

I projected that the Celtics wouldn&#39;t break 80... but at their current pace they&#39;re going to struggle to break 70!  Yikes.  76ers opened up hot from outside but they&#39;ll cool off as the game progresses.  Expect them to settle in at around 45%-48% shooting for the game.

CalifDreamin · Answer

Gl

MAGO304 · Answer

I know its early, but H-Town is starting to stink it up

MAGO304 · Answer

Sorry wrong thread

si1ly · Answer

Flying to Los Angeles tonight.  Won&#39;t be around to answer any questions.  Good luck on the rest of the card gents!

termayt27 · Answer

I love your parlay!

si1ly · Answer

What happened in the third quarter in Cleveland?  Every other quarter had 50&#x2B; but in the third they only scored 36... Lost by 8 points.  I&#39;ll take 2/3 for another profitable night.  Keep rolling!

Wednesday Night - NBA

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