ranking my betting profits by sport over the years would be like this
MLB
NCAAB
NFL
NCAAF /NBA...
no issue right? problem is i watch more basketball than anything. high school, college and NBA.. i saw cole anthony play at bishop milloy high school in queens NYC his soph and junior year a few times live, i saw shamorie ponds at jefferson for 3 years in person before seeing him a few times at st. john’s.. i’m the guy who my friends ask with college players would translate well in the NBA, most recently I told all my friends the knicks need to draft quickley with the 25th pick and all my friends said i was crazy and that he’s a 2nd rounder.
just to give you guys an idea lol... what am i missing with NBA betting that i’m not profiting as much as i am in college basketball? am i reading lines more or looking too much into sides, handles, public and sharp info?
today i hit with the knicks -2 and lost on portland -2.5 thoughts/ opinions appreciated.
0
To remove first post, remove entire topic.
ranking my betting profits by sport over the years would be like this
MLB
NCAAB
NFL
NCAAF /NBA...
no issue right? problem is i watch more basketball than anything. high school, college and NBA.. i saw cole anthony play at bishop milloy high school in queens NYC his soph and junior year a few times live, i saw shamorie ponds at jefferson for 3 years in person before seeing him a few times at st. john’s.. i’m the guy who my friends ask with college players would translate well in the NBA, most recently I told all my friends the knicks need to draft quickley with the 25th pick and all my friends said i was crazy and that he’s a 2nd rounder.
just to give you guys an idea lol... what am i missing with NBA betting that i’m not profiting as much as i am in college basketball? am i reading lines more or looking too much into sides, handles, public and sharp info?
today i hit with the knicks -2 and lost on portland -2.5 thoughts/ opinions appreciated.
NBA is rigged man. Very easy to manipulate the score with fouls. Keep a game under by not calling fouls, want a game to go over, call extra fouls, I would have to say college football and college
basketball are my 2 most profitable sports along with NHL, then nfl, then nba then mlb.
0
@NYYKNICKS
NBA is rigged man. Very easy to manipulate the score with fouls. Keep a game under by not calling fouls, want a game to go over, call extra fouls, I would have to say college football and college
basketball are my 2 most profitable sports along with NHL, then nfl, then nba then mlb.
I’ve heard stories where refs would bet 20$ With eachother on who calls the first foul and no one wants to lose $20 so they’ll go minutes without calling a foul. You think that’s something small but that’s all that’s needed to manipulate a game,
0
I’ve heard stories where refs would bet 20$ With eachother on who calls the first foul and no one wants to lose $20 so they’ll go minutes without calling a foul. You think that’s something small but that’s all that’s needed to manipulate a game,
Basketball is tough. You never know when the millionaires are in the mood to hoop. It's a crap shoot. Cant wait for baseball definitely my most profitable sport to bet. Only a week away counting down .
3
Basketball is tough. You never know when the millionaires are in the mood to hoop. It's a crap shoot. Cant wait for baseball definitely my most profitable sport to bet. Only a week away counting down .
i agree.. i always say the biggest problem with the nba is that most coaches fear losing their job because the league is ran by the players. most coaches won’t go toe to toe with their players for lack of effort and or plain ol’ horrible shots etc.
0
@Raider4life22
i agree.. i always say the biggest problem with the nba is that most coaches fear losing their job because the league is ran by the players. most coaches won’t go toe to toe with their players for lack of effort and or plain ol’ horrible shots etc.
Nice thread bro. I will give you some food for thought.
1. You should be glad you are killing baseball. That is the best sport to be good at, since it has the most number of games per year. I feel sorry for the guys who only bet football.
2. NBA is very volatile. Everyone has its methods but there are many intangible factors that we need to cap. For example rest in baseball does not matter much -maybe the only case where you cap it is with pitchers, if the starter pitched a few days ago or if the bullpen had a busy day the day before-. With NBA it is a very important factor.
3. Motivation plays a lot in NBA as well and in games where it is all about physical performance. Running a bit faster , playing a little bit harder. In baseball you do not have that. No matter how bad Giancarlo Stanton wants to kill the ball, his motivation does not have that big of an influence when he is facing the pitcher in front of him. He will have X% expected OPS against that pitcher whether he is motivated or not prior to the game.
4. I think recent form matters a lot in both.
5. But the key issue is matchups. In baseball, there is one matchup that matters... the pitcher vs the batter. Yes defense can slightly shift the balance, and then you have ballpark factors, but this aint basketball. In NBA you have to go through individual matchups, and then the full team matchup. How is this team against fast paced teams? How do they sccheme collectively to protect the paint? Shit like that.
Handicapping baseball is easier if you are a data junkie. The NBA has much more factors that are not exactly data driven or measureable.
Hope it helps. BOL
5
Nice thread bro. I will give you some food for thought.
1. You should be glad you are killing baseball. That is the best sport to be good at, since it has the most number of games per year. I feel sorry for the guys who only bet football.
2. NBA is very volatile. Everyone has its methods but there are many intangible factors that we need to cap. For example rest in baseball does not matter much -maybe the only case where you cap it is with pitchers, if the starter pitched a few days ago or if the bullpen had a busy day the day before-. With NBA it is a very important factor.
3. Motivation plays a lot in NBA as well and in games where it is all about physical performance. Running a bit faster , playing a little bit harder. In baseball you do not have that. No matter how bad Giancarlo Stanton wants to kill the ball, his motivation does not have that big of an influence when he is facing the pitcher in front of him. He will have X% expected OPS against that pitcher whether he is motivated or not prior to the game.
4. I think recent form matters a lot in both.
5. But the key issue is matchups. In baseball, there is one matchup that matters... the pitcher vs the batter. Yes defense can slightly shift the balance, and then you have ballpark factors, but this aint basketball. In NBA you have to go through individual matchups, and then the full team matchup. How is this team against fast paced teams? How do they sccheme collectively to protect the paint? Shit like that.
Handicapping baseball is easier if you are a data junkie. The NBA has much more factors that are not exactly data driven or measureable.
I’ve heard stories where refs would bet 20$ With eachother on who calls the first foul and no one wants to lose $20 so they’ll go minutes without calling a foul. You think that’s something small but that’s all that’s needed to manipulate a game,
$20? that's it?
gamblor for life
0
Quote Originally Posted by Mlb_legend:
I’ve heard stories where refs would bet 20$ With eachother on who calls the first foul and no one wants to lose $20 so they’ll go minutes without calling a foul. You think that’s something small but that’s all that’s needed to manipulate a game,
I usually do bad on NBA but this year I've been good.
Still it's by far the sport where you have to cap motivation which is reallly hard to do. There's absolute;y zero risk of top teams missing the playoffs, so they can leave for their birthdays like Kyrie or just rest the whole season like Kawhi or the baby caring of not playing back to backs of so many players, and suddenly out of nowhere they play one back to back when you capped the game thinking someone won't play.
And add to that the late scratches, some of them absolutely ridiculous "injuries" and moving foward the new trend is having players listed as questionable pretty much the whole year so suddenly they can take them out of the lineup out of nowhere.
It's hard, I've said the many times, the NBA regular season is worthless to many teams, for the good ones is just a training camp for the playoffs, for the bad ones just time they must complete to get a good draft, and only some bubble teams fighting each night to get eliminated in the first round of the playoffs.
Still I think after years I'm finding a formula.
2
I usually do bad on NBA but this year I've been good.
Still it's by far the sport where you have to cap motivation which is reallly hard to do. There's absolute;y zero risk of top teams missing the playoffs, so they can leave for their birthdays like Kyrie or just rest the whole season like Kawhi or the baby caring of not playing back to backs of so many players, and suddenly out of nowhere they play one back to back when you capped the game thinking someone won't play.
And add to that the late scratches, some of them absolutely ridiculous "injuries" and moving foward the new trend is having players listed as questionable pretty much the whole year so suddenly they can take them out of the lineup out of nowhere.
It's hard, I've said the many times, the NBA regular season is worthless to many teams, for the good ones is just a training camp for the playoffs, for the bad ones just time they must complete to get a good draft, and only some bubble teams fighting each night to get eliminated in the first round of the playoffs.
You are a Knicks fan and you bet on the Knicks. It worked last night, but it hasn't been profitable over the years. Do you ever bet against them? I have been betting on the Knicks vs bad teams and that has been working, I am not a fan..
If you watch a lot of hoops, you probably like certain players and teams and dislike others. if that influences your betting, that can be a problem.
Also, no one (or very few) can watch all of the NBA games. So if you happen to watch a few minutes of a bad team when they are hitting all their shots and playing great, you may think they are a good team to bet on. If you don't watch any, you don't have this problem.
1
You are a Knicks fan and you bet on the Knicks. It worked last night, but it hasn't been profitable over the years. Do you ever bet against them? I have been betting on the Knicks vs bad teams and that has been working, I am not a fan..
If you watch a lot of hoops, you probably like certain players and teams and dislike others. if that influences your betting, that can be a problem.
Also, no one (or very few) can watch all of the NBA games. So if you happen to watch a few minutes of a bad team when they are hitting all their shots and playing great, you may think they are a good team to bet on. If you don't watch any, you don't have this problem.
thanks for the input, one thing i don’t do is bet with my gut.. i’ve bet against the knicks a bunch of times, the same way i’ve betted against the yankees a bunch of times.
i betted against the knicks yesterday because i thought for once in a while they actually got a fair line and the wizards play absolutely no defense and what did the knicks do? 3 points off their season high.
i also didn’t say i watch every nba game... i try to consider certain players/ teams getting up and being motivated vs some opponents which was a factor last night in me taking portland, but i also feel like some teams get very favorable lines and have gotten some all season IE: brooklyn nets. and other popular teams
typically i don’t bet NBA until the 2nd round of the playoffs, which is usually fine for me. maybe i should stick to that.
0
@thorpe
thanks for the input, one thing i don’t do is bet with my gut.. i’ve bet against the knicks a bunch of times, the same way i’ve betted against the yankees a bunch of times.
i betted against the knicks yesterday because i thought for once in a while they actually got a fair line and the wizards play absolutely no defense and what did the knicks do? 3 points off their season high.
i also didn’t say i watch every nba game... i try to consider certain players/ teams getting up and being motivated vs some opponents which was a factor last night in me taking portland, but i also feel like some teams get very favorable lines and have gotten some all season IE: brooklyn nets. and other popular teams
typically i don’t bet NBA until the 2nd round of the playoffs, which is usually fine for me. maybe i should stick to that.
I took the Knicks team total over yesterday because Bertans is out and Wizards lack D. I read from a sports beat article on how Randle would feast on the remaining Wizards bigs. Knicks score more points when they are at home, Wizards score a lot less points when they are away. Wizards guards out match the Knicks guards largely though so instead of taking the spread I went with Knicks team total, bought some points and doubled the bet. Gotta get real gritty and go outside the box in the NBA and recognize different points in the season that change the flow of things like pre and post all star break, trade deadline, who's tanking now and who really needs to win late season.
0
I took the Knicks team total over yesterday because Bertans is out and Wizards lack D. I read from a sports beat article on how Randle would feast on the remaining Wizards bigs. Knicks score more points when they are at home, Wizards score a lot less points when they are away. Wizards guards out match the Knicks guards largely though so instead of taking the spread I went with Knicks team total, bought some points and doubled the bet. Gotta get real gritty and go outside the box in the NBA and recognize different points in the season that change the flow of things like pre and post all star break, trade deadline, who's tanking now and who really needs to win late season.
@gutinstinctus what are some things you rely on while capping NBA? besides the few things you touched on.
I think what I mentioned is the base. But number 5 can be segmented into 20 additional points or even more. Historic data in duels between specific players, permiter shooting vs perimeter defense, paint scorers vs paint defenders, key absenses and the impact they should have over the game.
I also thinks it helps a lot to understand how most books set up the line. Traders generally take the season average points per game (scored and received) of each team, sum them up and divide it by 2. Then, they make some minor adjustments due to some of the factors I mentioned in my posts, and release the line. They will then try to adjust it according to the bets they start receiving.
It is not rocket science and usually a very straightforward process. But clearly, they are not quantifying properly all of the factors. In most cases, due to the juice, you won´t find an profitable bet, but with 10 games + per card, and the huge array of options you have, you should certainly be able to identify expolitable spots each night.
0
Quote Originally Posted by NYYKNICKS:
@gutinstinctus what are some things you rely on while capping NBA? besides the few things you touched on.
I think what I mentioned is the base. But number 5 can be segmented into 20 additional points or even more. Historic data in duels between specific players, permiter shooting vs perimeter defense, paint scorers vs paint defenders, key absenses and the impact they should have over the game.
I also thinks it helps a lot to understand how most books set up the line. Traders generally take the season average points per game (scored and received) of each team, sum them up and divide it by 2. Then, they make some minor adjustments due to some of the factors I mentioned in my posts, and release the line. They will then try to adjust it according to the bets they start receiving.
It is not rocket science and usually a very straightforward process. But clearly, they are not quantifying properly all of the factors. In most cases, due to the juice, you won´t find an profitable bet, but with 10 games + per card, and the huge array of options you have, you should certainly be able to identify expolitable spots each night.
This may be the last time I ever post something like this, but I will share with you what goes through my mind with the pick I posted today. I am betting the Grizzlies-OKC under 218.5.
OKC scores an average 106.4 ppg and receives an average 112 ppg. That is a total average pppg of 118.4
Memphis on the other hand has scored an average 111.4 and received 111. That is a total average ppg of 122.4.
So the combined expected average should be (122.4+118.4)/2 = 120.4
Well you may ask, the line is lower than that, why the hell are you betting it? The line is lower because the books took into account that SGA is not playing (I actually think the line opened higher and probably faster bettors than me helped to shift it). But I believe that this is not only that SGA plays but also that Horford (who constantly sits out games), is also playing and so is Dort. The two best defenders of OKC are playing and its worst defender and top scorer is out. So, should the line shift only 2 points?! My take obviously is no... that line should be 214 or so...
1
This may be the last time I ever post something like this, but I will share with you what goes through my mind with the pick I posted today. I am betting the Grizzlies-OKC under 218.5.
OKC scores an average 106.4 ppg and receives an average 112 ppg. That is a total average pppg of 118.4
Memphis on the other hand has scored an average 111.4 and received 111. That is a total average ppg of 122.4.
So the combined expected average should be (122.4+118.4)/2 = 120.4
Well you may ask, the line is lower than that, why the hell are you betting it? The line is lower because the books took into account that SGA is not playing (I actually think the line opened higher and probably faster bettors than me helped to shift it). But I believe that this is not only that SGA plays but also that Horford (who constantly sits out games), is also playing and so is Dort. The two best defenders of OKC are playing and its worst defender and top scorer is out. So, should the line shift only 2 points?! My take obviously is no... that line should be 214 or so...
thanks again for your insight! in true NBA craziness i decided to take the celtics +6.5 and while they made me sweat for every bit of it, it cashed in.
sorry that didn’t hit, but i have no doubt you’ll be right back with a W! BOL rest of the way!
0
@gutinstinctus
thanks again for your insight! in true NBA craziness i decided to take the celtics +6.5 and while they made me sweat for every bit of it, it cashed in.
sorry that didn’t hit, but i have no doubt you’ll be right back with a W! BOL rest of the way!
If you choose to make use of any information on this website including online sports betting services from any websites that may be featured on
this website, we strongly recommend that you carefully check your local laws before doing so.It is your sole responsibility to understand your local laws and observe them strictly.Covers does not provide
any advice or guidance as to the legality of online sports betting or other online gambling activities within your jurisdiction and you are responsible for complying with laws that are applicable to you in
your relevant locality.Covers disclaims all liability associated with your use of this website and use of any information contained on it.As a condition of using this website, you agree to hold the owner
of this website harmless from any claims arising from your use of any services on any third party website that may be featured by Covers.
Hot Forum Topics
