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What would you do in this situation?

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Legend
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Posted: #1
Let's say you had the following bets currently pending that you made before Round 1:

1. Correct series score: Pacers win series 4-1 (+165), 1 unit to win 1.65
2. Pacers -2.5 games in series (-135), 2.7 to win 2

Seeing as you basically then have the Pacers ML this game at 3.7 to win 3.65 units, how would you approach tonight's game? Make a play on Orlando +10.5 and hope to hit a nice little middle with a Pacers victory within single digits?
 
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Posted: #2
^ honestly, i'd just lay off betting on this game...it looks as if ORL really has no shot and will pack it in....they have nothing left in the tank, i wouldn't be surprised if they DID NOT cover the 10.5+ tonight.

...just collect those futures & pick another game
 
Legend
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Posted: #3
I feel shameful if I pass up a middle opportunity of 10 points for some reason
 
Rookie
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Posted: #4
KAP - always always read your stuff.  Thanks for all the work - on multiple sports.

* Maybe bet 0.6u on ORL ML (at +600 currently).  Break even if ORL wins, book a 3u win otherwise.
 
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Posted: #5
Or you could do a 4.5 pt tease with Orlando and Philly.  Give yourself a 14 pt cushion and I don't see Philly losing by more than 9.  Chicago could very well beat Philly but I believe it will be a close one if they do.  FT's at the end could stretch it to 5-7 pts but I doubt the margin reaches 10.
 
MVP
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Posted: #6
So you a middle chance with 10 points involved. Unless you need this money to pay rent you should 100% go for the middle. 

Put it all on the middle. 
 
Legend
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Posted: #7
Problem with the strategy from kvs23 is that the local PPH site I use is not offering a ML for Orlando -- they started shying away from big moneylines in the middle of the NBA season.
 
Legend
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Posted: #8
Quote Originally Posted by FlamingoBarnes:

Or you could do a 4.5 pt tease with Orlando and Philly.  Give yourself a 14 pt cushion and I don't see Philly losing by more than 9.  Chicago could very well beat Philly but I believe it will be a close one if they do.  FT's at the end could stretch it to 5-7 pts but I doubt the margin reaches 10.


The teaser is an interesting idea in that it really does give you a greater middle range. I tend to be very hesitant to play teasers in hoops though, although I suppose if you are going to do one, doing it in a low total game in the playoffs would be the place to do it, no?
 
Legend
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Posted: #9
Quote Originally Posted by powerade:

So you a middle chance with 10 points involved. Unless you need this money to pay rent you should 100% go for the middle. 

Put it all on the middle. 


My gut instinct says to do this as well -- the money is definitely not rent/mortgage money, but I'm wondering if I should just go 3.3 to win 3 on Orlando +10.5. If they get blown out then I'm basically back to even and so be it, but if I didn't hedge and somehow ORL beats IND straight up today I'd be furious I didn't when I had the opportunity (and even probably more upset if IND wins by single digits and I passed up the chance to nail the middle)
 
Prospect
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Posted: #10
stay away. the pacers are gonna win this game and you'll cash from that. why mess with it?

just my 2 cents..
 
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Posted: #11

Quote Originally Posted by kaponofor3:



The teaser is an interesting idea in that it really does give you a greater middle range. I tend to be very hesitant to play teasers in hoops though, although I suppose if you are going to do one, doing it in a low total game in the playoffs would be the place to do it, no?

 

Yea, I never play teasers in the regular season but I have tried a few in the playoffs and have been very successful with them.  The Bulls/Philly game is going to be a typical low-scoring dog fight.  A 9 point cushion in a game like that seems to be a winner in my opinion.

 
Captain
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Posted: #12
Sit back and cash 3.65 units is what I would do
 
Prospect
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Posted: #13
Do you bet on Pinnacle or with a bookie?

Watch the first half and bet halftime if your worried.

Or if you bet on pinnacle wait till the pacers get their expected lead and then bet a little on Magic spread or ML.

If i had to either NOT hedge before game or  hedge. I wouldnt hedge as a -10.5 favorite. The whole point of gambling is to get ur money in when you think you have a big edge and thats what you have right now. So Id leave it as be, or watch first half and decide then
 
Prospect
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Posted: #14
Quote Originally Posted by kaponofor3:



My gut instinct says to do this as well -- the money is definitely not rent/mortgage money, but I'm wondering if I should just go 3.3 to win 3 on Orlando +10.5. If they get blown out then I'm basically back to even and so be it, but if I didn't hedge and somehow ORL beats IND straight up today I'd be fuous I didn't when I had the opportunity (and even probably more upset if IND wins by single digits and I passed up the chance to nail the middle)
Dude, you have to live with yourself. If you'd be furious with yourself if the middle hits and you didn't play it, and you're  ok with breaking even if you play it and it doesn't hit, you have to play it . From strictly a " play the percentages" point of view, never bet a penny on anything you don' t believe in as a standalone propoposition (in this case magic + 10 1/2, if you don't like the side or are neutral on it).
 
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Posted: #15
Stay where you are.  Pacers will win tonight.  They don't want the hassle of having to go back to Orlando then winning game 7.  They blew an 18 point lead in game 4 cause they thought it was over and mentally checked out----but still showed they were the better team by hanging on for the win.  It was jjust like San An last night---they thought Utah would just quit. 

Orlando sturggles to score as it is---look at their PT totals in the 3 games + before they went off in the 4th to force over time in game 4.

Pacers will win SU tonight for sure.
 
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Posted: #16
I agree with 9nip. Watch the first half and then bet if you see something that worries you.
 
MVP
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Posted: #17
Agree with Stew - would leave it alone unless you have strong enough lean on the Magic that you'd make it at least a very small play anyhow. GL  
 
Captain
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Posted: #18
Middling is a money burning long term proposition. It might pay off here and there in the short run, but in the long scheme of things it'll cut into your bottom line.
DON'T DO IT KAP( Jus't Kidding man, it's your call. This is only my opinion )

Now Hedging a bet on a parlay when your trying to gain at least 10X your original stake. THIS I WOULD RECOMMEND.
 
MVP
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Posted: #19
Let your pacers bet ride 
 
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Posted: #20
if u're concerned think orlando has a shot to win hedge otherwise leave as-is
 
Captain
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Posted: #21

Quote Originally Posted by 44-dimes:

Middling is a money burning long term proposition. It might pay off here and there in the short run, but in the long scheme of things it'll cut into your bottom line.
DON'T DO IT KAP( Jus't Kidding man, it's your call. This is only my opinion )

Now Hedging a bet on a parlay when your trying to gain at least 10X your original stake. THIS I WOULD RECOMMEND.

I would think the opposite. Over the long-run a 10-pt middle would be extremely profitable...the problem is it would be tough to have a "long-run" as that's a very rare situation.

As a one-off, and as long as you can afford to lose 3.7 units, I wouldn't be hedging...unless you think Orlando is a very live 'dog...and I don't mean to cover the spread, but to win outright. However, as a long-term strategy middling is a good idea.

 
All-Star
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Posted: #22
put a 0,5 units on ORL ML and you are good to go
 
Prospect
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Posted: #23
Quote Originally Posted by P4P:

I would think the opposite. Over the long-run a 10-pt middle would be extremely profitable...the problem is it would be tough to have a "long-run" as that's a very rare situation.

As a one-off, and as long as you can afford to lose 3.7 units, I wouldn't be hedging...unless you think Orlando is a very live 'dog...and I don't mean to cover the spread, but to win outright. However, as a long-term strategy middling is a good idea.

Are 10 1/2 point middles profitable? Of course they are. The question is, once you already have a bet that puts you in a real good position, is it more profitable over the long run to stick with that original bet, or to add a play on the side opposite of what you need and try for a middle? If the bet you're considering adding to set up a middle has, by itself, a negative expectancy, then it would dilute the profit potential of the original good position you are starting with, and  you should just stick with the original bet.  
 
Captain
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Posted: #24
Quote Originally Posted by Stew Baker:

Are 10 1/2 point middles profitable? Of course they are. The question is, once you already have a bet that puts you in a real good position, is it more profitable over the long run to stick with that original bet, or to add a play on the side opposite of what you need and try for a middle? If the bet you're considering adding to set up a middle has, by itself, a negative expectancy, then it would dilute the profit potential of the original good position you are starting with, and  you should just stick with the original bet.  


This.

p.s. Hedging is for action junkies.
 
 
Captain
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Posted: #25

Quote Originally Posted by MuggsyBogues:



This.

p.s. Hedging is for action junkies.

That makes no sense. If you hedge, you essentially have no action on the game...

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