Why? WHY do these bettors hit me with sure bets like that???

haha.... WOW.  this thread should go down in history.

MEM taking game 6. 3-1 means nothing. Now 3-2.

Look at the lines and the additional point spreads in basketball. Buying 7 points is always around -340. I have the text to prove it was +13. Why would I make shit up about a losing bet?

At least the odds of the Clippers winning the series dropped by a little bit.

this is why most books do not allow you to parlay prop bets - alt spreads are prop bets

Buddy, if I took action from everyone that's whiling to give me, I would never have to work a day in my life. I don't take action from people I don't know. I don't even take action from people I know unless I know them very well and we have some kind of common network and where stiffing the other for a couple of hundred or thousand would result in a bigger cost in terms of reputation.

Message board bookie!

wish i had the 5 minutes  I wasted on this post, FFS get story straight u attention  seeking person

How does someone involved in wagering / accepting wagets not know what a clear path foul is. Come on bro. Im not trying to hate, wait, yes i am.

Then +12-+13

What would i do without the comedy on these forums

Wagers*

Woah people on covers ate really fast in putting people down. Why I posted my story ? Because it's gambling related and I find it quite amusing, and if you don't no ones forcing you to read. 

... Just like when you invest in stocks you do not necessarily know all the terms. I honestly thought it was 12 even tho it says 13 on my text from him and on the slip. Completely forgot with all the action I had in baseball.

Looks like he got lucky AGAIN with Boston. If Atlanta had won that game, his huge parlay that was paying -124 odds would have been an underdog as Boston would need to travel to Atlanta and win and the L.A. team would each need to win their series respectively.

Not only that, but he would probably try to buy his way out of his ticket for a part of his stake, as he is been begging me to do so.

Boston won. Lakers and Clippers each lost a game. There are no odds for their next game to win.

Basically right now he has 10K riding to win about 8K, needing the Lakers to win Game 7 and the Clippers to win game 6 OR Game 7.

How much would I need to risk on a 2-game series parlay right now (Lakers/Clippers) for the payout + my stake to be 18K ? If the odds are -300 for Lakers and Clippers respectively, then the answer would be 10K.

(1/3 + 1)^2 = 1.78
1.78 *10K = 17,800

This means with Boston already winning but the Lakers and Clippers each losing a game, I should let my guy cancel his ticket free of charge to be EV neutral. However, we do not know what the odds are going to be.

I actually believe the Lakers will be around -175 and the Clippers -230 (but if they lose, they will be slight underdogs in Memphis). Assuming Clippers odds of losing both games are (30%*60%) = 18%, the odds should be -455.

(1/4.55 + 1)*(1/1.75 + 1) = 1.917

Which means his ticket is worth about $9400, or $600 less than what he started with. He is a gambler and he does not want to experience the feeling of watching the Lakers and Clippers win while being bought out of his ticket. He rather lose. All gamblers rather lose than not have action on a winning game. How do I buy him out short? How do I convince him that even though Boston already won, for him to get out of this ticket, he's actually going to have to pay money out?

sigh...
this just seems like something a bookie should not be asking a board IMO.

griffen and cp3 are hurt.  lakers are terrible.  there ya go.

What's wrong with asking the board? Haha I just saw the Clippers line, +105.

The Lakers are actually -270. I honestly think the Nuggets are a better team but it's all a stage. The NBA would never pass up a OKC/LA series.

I did all the math, all the joint probabilities etc and I came to a number: 44%. My guy has a 44% chance of hitting his parlay, which means I should let him cancel his wager for a price of $2000. If I can get a better number out of him I'll cancel it for him, if not, then I'll sweat out the 18K swing.

Ok I calculated using Excel and plugging in values of the series odds. He would actually need to pay me $2408 to cancel the play for both of us to be zero EV.

Looks like his $10K is in jeopardy and he should be whiling to lose a good chunk of it to get out of the ticket.

He won't sell

Gamblers get a high from the uncertainty of whether they are going to win 10K or lose 10K. They almost rather lose than take a small loss or small win with no action. I think I will have to take the risk and let him bury himself.

tbh I didn't read alot of this thread..  Who do you need to win?

Denver OR Memphis.

According to my calculations, his ticket is worth 25.6% of his original stake! Which means if you risked $x right now on a no-juice parlay Lakers/Clippers, the payout would be about 6 to 1, which will approximately equal to his original stake + would-be winnings.

Down to the last game now. This fish has already given me a good chunk of his wager in hedging against his own series parlay by betting on Atlanta and Denver on elimination games.

And now for the 18K swing, going into today's basketball game as a 4 to 1 fav (me).

You've spent a lot of time making up this story. Got to give you credit for that.