TNF Cinn (Loss) -5.5u
NFL YTD: 64-52 (+65.03 units)
Teaser_7pt: Miami-2.5_49ers -3 10 unit Hammer (posted wk 10 thread)
Teaser_7pt: Det -3 _Dallas -3.5 10 unit Hammer ( wk 10 thread)
Teaser_10pt: LAC +7_Den+7_Chiefs +7 10 unit Hammer
Detroit -7 (-125) 10 unit Hammer
Miami -13.5 (-110) 5u
San Francisco -12 (-110) 5u
SNF: Denver ML -130 10 unit Hammer
MNF: Kansas City Chiefs -2.5 20 unit **Max Wager** Hammer
With all due respect, I think the Lions are in for a game vs the Bears this Sunday.
There's a lot to unfold here, but I'll do my best.
The situation:
Lions just played out west in LA vs the Chargers. It was a high leverage game. This game was tied at 3 different points in the game. The Lions won by 3 on a 41 yard FG as time expired.
The Bears played last Thursday. They are on extended rest.
The Lions have to play on Thanksgiving vs the Packers. At noon to boot. Sandwich spot?
Last week was the first time that the Bears had all of their starters from the secondary on the field, including their nickel back. They didn't have any setbacks vs the Panthers.
This week, it will be the first time that the Bears have all 5 projected starting o linemen on the field. Nate Davis comes back at right guard. Tevin Jenkins(who's been tremendous) slides over to left guard. The odd man out is Cody Whitehair, and that's a good thing for their line.
Justin Fields is back(duh). The last time he played was vs the Vikings. A game in which Cody Whitehair was filling in at center. The guy is so bad at shotgun snaps, that they didn't allow him to do shotgun snaps. If you didn't know, Justin Fields strength is out of the shotgun. He's best when he never turns his back to the D, or from a low center of gravity where it's harder to see the field. If you don't believe me, put on some tape from Ohio st.
He was a mess vs the Vikings, and ultimately got hurt in that game. Lucas Patrick has been back at center since then, he's fine with the shotgun. Fwiw, Fields best 2 games were in weeks 4 and 5(out of the shotgun with Patrick) vs the Broncos and Commanders. The offense put up 28 and 40.
Did you know:
The Bears run defense is the best in the league. Since week 5, #1 in rush epa and rush success rate. Their overall defense is #6 since week 5 in defensive epa per play. To put into perspective, the teams 1 through 5 in the same span are the Jets, Browns, Raiders, Saints, 49ers.
The run D is important here, vs a Lions team who loves to run, run often, and a lot of what they do is catapulted by establishing the run. Remember that Jared Goff is the ultimate guy out of play action pass. He has been since his days with the Rams under McVay. I'm not so sure that they will have success here, despite having 2 stud RB's, one of which who will be playing with extra motivation against his former team.
The Bears biggest weakness all year has been their pass rush, or lack there of. It will be Montez Sweat's 3rd game with them. PFF grades him at 76.5. Their other DE Yannick Ngakoue is 38.4, ouch. What happened to that dude?
Starting RB Khalil Herbert will be back. He's missed the last 5 games. Got hurt in week 5 vs the Commanders.
Starting Fullback Khari Blasingame missed last week's game due to concussion. And he's a good one for the rare position these days. He's back for this game.
All these guy's coming together, and getting healthy vs a divisional opponent. The opening # of 10 was ridiculous. Even at 7.5 it was too much. At 7...OK maybe. I'm just seeing a grinder of a game here, especially in the trenches.
Best of Luck Wise, and tremendous record to date.
@Wizerguy
Good luck! And Denver the same Denver that beat KC and Buf are back home to Dangerous Dicky Diddley Dobbs and the Vikings. Normally I would be on Denver Donkeys as well but not with SUPERMAN/Astronaut/QB at the Helm for the Vikings and I'm sold... Going against the (Pubic) and ride the NFL'S new poster Boy Dobbs all the way to the Bank
PS I wouldn't be making Denver my best bet on anything...lololo
OUTSTANDING STUFF!
@undermysac
Nice writeup and I agree and even think this is a very good spot for Chicago to have a good game. However, I disagree slightly with your assessment of Fields.
Justin Fields is back(duh). The last time he played was vs the Vikings. A game in which Cody Whitehair was filling in at center. The guy is so bad at shotgun snaps, that they didn't allow him to do shotgun snaps. If you didn't know, Justin Fields strength is out of the shotgun.
I would not put a lot of stock in this year's sample. He has only thrown from under center 10 times; but from the shotgun 152 times.
This year his rating is better from under center 115.4 to 88.3 and his completion% is better 70% to 61.2 but his PE/Play -.075 compared to .056 is worse and his WAR slightly worse and his on-target% is slightly worse 70% to 73.5%.
If you look at last year from a larger sample size he performs better from under center. His rating under center on 52 throws was 123.8 against 266 throws from the shotgun of 77.6. From shotgun his comp% was 60.2% vs 61.5%. Y/A under center was 9.6 vs 6.6. On-Trgt% under center 73% vs 64.8%. PE/Play under center .227 vs -.006. His WAR under center was .3 vs -.5 from the shotgun.
Bottom line is he is not a good QB at all. But QBs that work a lot from under center are not that common anymore. Cousins and Goff are the only ones that have more than 65 throws from under center. Most other QBs that need to see the field and have the chance to maybe run work from the shotgun nowadays. For example, Mahomes only has 28 throws from under center and even Herbert only has 29.
Sure, Fields gives them the best chance to win. That is just not saying a lot to me. He has not shown much improvement in any phase of the game to me. But their offense runs out of the shotgun, as do most teams. For example, Bagent threw from the shotgun 126 times versus 17 times from under center.
But very good analysis and I agree with you. 
Established in 1995,
z
Hot Forum Topics
