🏈🏈🏈 “To BEt, or not to BEt, that is the question” ...Fubah2's risky bets

sad

prolly fail again

Well that's a decent consolation prize. 

Tomorrow maybe we can compare notes on some key Divisional stats.

Only one unit for that teaser, with Jags +18.5 in the third and final leg of a 10 points teaser. But loss has occurred for me tonight.  

Ah well, new week now.  You'll get it back and then some!

good call fubah

that cowboys winner makes it 11-0-1 so far in the playoffs ?

@fubah2

In fairness,

since you post so many large chalk bets it might be useful to the forum to know how those panned out in units.
I have taken the liberty to research your posted regular season picks and added the resulting units you weren't listing. Don't take offense as I believe this info completes a picture and might be useful to some members or lurkers.

Week 05:   1 - 1  - 070
Week 06:   1 - 1  - 010
Week 07:   4 - 3  - 118
Week 08:   7 - 2  +473
Week 09:   9 - 1  +785
Week 10:   6 - 5  - 614
Week 11:   7 - 3  +110
Week 12:   9 - 1  +700
Week 13:   9 - 1  +640
Week 14:   3 - 1  +115
Week 15:   3 - 3  - 246
Week 16: 11 - 5  +193
Week 17:   3 - 4  - 400
Week 18: 11 - 7  - 301

@zircon

Nah man, it's OK, it's all good.   

Was going to do that post season but what you posted is fine.

I have some Divisional stats I'll be posting here you and others might find interesting and probably some bets

Take a look on the previous page and see how effective betting with big chalk can be when picking the right spots!

BoL with your bets Saturday/Sunday

Interesting DIVISONAL PLAYOFF betting stats:

#1 seeds this year: EAGLES and CHIEFS

  •  Over the last 20 years a #1 seed has been upset in 10 of those 20 years

  • Out of 40 #1 seed games, 13 have been upset, BUT 27 - 13 to advance!

  • any seed that enters the Divisional round carrying a NEGATIVE point differential from the regular season (NYG this year) is only  2 - 9 to advance

more later ...

@fubah2

Good luck!!  

•  all Home favs are 49 - 24 su past 20 years (Note, all the home teams this weekend qualify under that stat)

•  small home favs up to -4.5 (Niners qualify) have won outright 13 - 9 but 9 - 13 to cover

•  home favs of between -5 and -8.5 odds have won outright 26 - 9 but 16 - 18 to cover (Eagles and Bills qualify)

67% winning rate, that's not to shabby for the home teams. On the against the spread side, this year could either be 2-2 or 3-1. That's what I'm speculating.   

•  HEAVY home favs of -9 and up (Chiefs) have struggled! winning outright 10 - 6 but 7 - 9 to cover

Note, all my DIVISIONAL playoff stats DO NOT INCLUDE the covid year, 2020/21 (yr with no fans in home parks)

Also, fellas, let us keep in mind going forward in future playoff years, that we now have 17 game schedules. Meaning the stats of HALF the teams will benefit from playing one extra home game, while the other HALF must be measured against being forced to play an extra ROAD game.  This is a critical consideration in my handicapping of every sport.  Fictional example: two teams have identical 7 - 7 records and nearly the same pt. differential.....but the ROAD team achieved that playing 2 extra road games and the HOME team benefited from 2 extra home games - and this fortunate home team is favored -3.5.   No brainer for me. The road team is likely the better team!

This year, 12 - 4 Bengals (in reg. season) only benefited from playing 7 home games against 9 on the road and despite that they still managed a very respectable +96 pts differential!  Yes, the 13 - 3 Bills have a significantly higher pts differential but those stats were aided by getting to play 1 more home game than Bengals and 1 less on the road.

These two teams are very close when this is considered.

•  HOMIES with a "significantly higher" pts differential are  37 - 15 su

    (EAGLES qualify under this stat but the moneyline is HIGH!)

i make this matchup to b almost dead even 

i would rate it a pickem on a neutral field !

but line is trending up on bills   

•  HOMIES with a "MASSIVELY higher" pts differential are  20 - 6 su

•  HOMIES with a "MASSIVELY higher" pts differential are  20 - 6 su

      (EAGLES qualify under this stat but the moneyline is HIGH!)

I expect to post my bets soon....just going over injury status updates

Found this very interesting from Covers...

Reid is 27 - 4 su with two weeks to prepare for an opponent as a head coach.

•  the Divisional playoff teams that finished with a better regular season record are 43 - 24 su   but 30 - 38 to cover 

        (Note, all the home teams this weekend do qualify under that stat)

"Weather" you like it or not . . .

JAC @ KC -

This game is going to be played wet! We're likely looking at a rain/snow mix, or rain transitioning over to some snow late-game, but regardless it's wet, and while it's never a true downpour the steady light/moderate rains should eventually make for soaking wet conditions.

Cold and wet

(from rotogrinders)

•   When the HOME FAV faces an underdog, that won 4 or fewer games than the home team (reg season), the HOME FAV only covered 8 - 7 ATS...........but won su 13 - 2

Both the Chiefs (-495) and Eagles (-375) are in this scenario!

Nice to see you in your thread..

Took KC with 10 point spread for 20.00

We will see

 best of luck in your bets.

GL today Fubah.