Ok here we go. My Ravens will take the field Saturday at 4:30 as basically a 10 point favorite. A bad place for Lamar Jackson. He has struggled at home as a favorite regular season or playoffs.
- Playoffs: 1-3 SU/ATS
- Home Favorite: 28-10 SU, 15-23 ATS. Of 220 QBs over the past 20 years, he is ranked 213th ATS as a home favorite.
- On 12+ days rest: 1-6 ATS .. OUCH
Past 3 seasons:
-3.5 or higher: 6-16 ATS
-7.5 or higher: 1-8 ATS — worst mark of 32 QBs. His only cover? Week 1 this season at home against the Texans as a 9.5-point favorite. HA
I was shocked to see these numbers. Basically never bet on Lamar as a home favorite. The question is will they exercise those demons this Saturday.
Looking at the rest factor it’s interesting to see it isn’t a factor. These will be the 57th and 58th playoff games played in the past 20 years where both teams aren’t off a bye week, but one team has a “rest advantage.” The team with the rest advantage is 32-23 SU, 30-25 ATS. A small edge.
how about weather .. The Houston Texans — a team who plays in a dome — will travel to Baltimore to play the Ravens in about 20-degree weather. In the last 20 years, a dome team has played outdoors in sub-30 degree weather for the playoffs 8 times. Those teams are 2-6 SU, losing by 10 PPG. Line is 10 so not sure it’s that big an advantage.
The key to this game is CJ Stroud. Can he put up enough points against the best defense in the NFL to keep the Texans in the game. He is no longer a rookie and plays lights out. When you get this many points that back door cover is always looming. It’s very difficult for me to lay this many points. This is such a difficult game to call but with Lamar’s problems in the playoffs and especially the inability to cover as a home favorite and Stroud playing so well I will have to take the
TEXANS +10
@WilliamMunny 
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