With your system/program is there any correlation between the % and O/U? I've only briefly gone over this thread so Im not going to pretend to understand your program but it makes sense to me that the relationship between the offensive and defensive percentages could indicate semi-accurately the O/U.
I've been tracking the program myself since last year and after careful analysis of the O/U's ive come to the conclusion it's too inconsistent because of how my program records turnovers as it impacts the overal teams profiency percentages but doesn't take into account whether the turnover resulted into points such as a Matt Shaub pick six every week
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Quote Originally Posted by SavvyDonk:
With your system/program is there any correlation between the % and O/U? I've only briefly gone over this thread so Im not going to pretend to understand your program but it makes sense to me that the relationship between the offensive and defensive percentages could indicate semi-accurately the O/U.
I've been tracking the program myself since last year and after careful analysis of the O/U's ive come to the conclusion it's too inconsistent because of how my program records turnovers as it impacts the overal teams profiency percentages but doesn't take into account whether the turnover resulted into points such as a Matt Shaub pick six every week
First time. Good read besides the bashers and haters. Really. Keep your comments to yourself. He isn't asking you to play his picks. Only giving advice.
Anyway. What's your system saying for tomorrow night? Is the bears the right play ? Giants are a really bad team and on the road. Everyone is using the oh they have to win one sooner or later. But so do all the other 0 and 4 and 0and 5 teams. Thanks for your time.
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First time. Good read besides the bashers and haters. Really. Keep your comments to yourself. He isn't asking you to play his picks. Only giving advice.
Anyway. What's your system saying for tomorrow night? Is the bears the right play ? Giants are a really bad team and on the road. Everyone is using the oh they have to win one sooner or later. But so do all the other 0 and 4 and 0and 5 teams. Thanks for your time.
First time. Good read besides the bashers and haters. Really. Keep your comments to yourself. He isn't asking you to play his picks. Only giving advice.
Anyway. What's your system saying for tomorrow night? Is the bears the right play ? Giants are a really bad team and on the road. Everyone is using the oh they have to win one sooner or later. But so do all the other 0 and 4 and 0and 5 teams. Thanks for your time.
I have giants ranked 31 just above the last ranked 32 jags...Giants are a bad team on the road...obviously all the percentages point to bears but at a 7.5 spread the bears don't exactly have a explosive offense like the saints...bears offense at 8% if the line was much smaller like -3 bears I would take bears but.. It's definitely a sharp line I see no value which is why it's a no play
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Quote Originally Posted by Bootz79:
First time. Good read besides the bashers and haters. Really. Keep your comments to yourself. He isn't asking you to play his picks. Only giving advice.
Anyway. What's your system saying for tomorrow night? Is the bears the right play ? Giants are a really bad team and on the road. Everyone is using the oh they have to win one sooner or later. But so do all the other 0 and 4 and 0and 5 teams. Thanks for your time.
I have giants ranked 31 just above the last ranked 32 jags...Giants are a bad team on the road...obviously all the percentages point to bears but at a 7.5 spread the bears don't exactly have a explosive offense like the saints...bears offense at 8% if the line was much smaller like -3 bears I would take bears but.. It's definitely a sharp line I see no value which is why it's a no play
With your system/program is there any correlation between the % and O/U? I've only briefly gone over this thread so Im not going to pretend to understand your program but it makes sense to me that the relationship between the offensive and defensive percentages could indicate semi-accurately the O/U.
This is an example of how to correlate the % to O/U....keep in mind 0% offense = average NFL
TNF...Giants offense -25% Bears 8% Giants are playing at -25% below Average which = to 10 points
Bears are playing at 8% above average which = 28 points
So for a test run lets play under the total of 47
Final score should be around 28-10 bears 31-10 bears around those numbers..lets see if it stays under
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Quote Originally Posted by SavvyDonk:
With your system/program is there any correlation between the % and O/U? I've only briefly gone over this thread so Im not going to pretend to understand your program but it makes sense to me that the relationship between the offensive and defensive percentages could indicate semi-accurately the O/U.
This is an example of how to correlate the % to O/U....keep in mind 0% offense = average NFL
TNF...Giants offense -25% Bears 8% Giants are playing at -25% below Average which = to 10 points
Bears are playing at 8% above average which = 28 points
So for a test run lets play under the total of 47
Final score should be around 28-10 bears 31-10 bears around those numbers..lets see if it stays under
Thanks AFN. With the Bears D have you factored in their TD potential they are always a threat to score on a turnover(s) which could possibly push total over.
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Thanks AFN. With the Bears D have you factored in their TD potential they are always a threat to score on a turnover(s) which could possibly push total over.
Thanks AFN. With the Bears D have you factored in their TD potential they are always a threat to score on a turnover(s) which could possibly push total over.
that's where my totals for O/U become inconsistent...my program only records turnovers as face value regardless of the outcome...if they scored or ended up punting after the turnover...my test run for bears giants game is pretty simple actually as all I'm doing is calculating how much both teams should score compared to each others defense...so doing the math for example...
Giants offense -25% = 10,13 points
Bears offense 8% = 28, 31 points
But we can't neglect the defense numbers...
Giants defense 7%
Bears defense -7%
So what we have here is a giants defense at 7% that should hold the bears to around 31,28 points...compared to a chargers bad defense at 28% just to compare how bad the chargers defense is compared to the giants...
Bears defense -7% against a giants offense at -25% giants will score but given those numbers ill go as far to say giants get 14 points max...
So according to the percentages calculations the game should hit 31 14 bears for a total of 45...
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Quote Originally Posted by prodigy808:
Thanks AFN. With the Bears D have you factored in their TD potential they are always a threat to score on a turnover(s) which could possibly push total over.
that's where my totals for O/U become inconsistent...my program only records turnovers as face value regardless of the outcome...if they scored or ended up punting after the turnover...my test run for bears giants game is pretty simple actually as all I'm doing is calculating how much both teams should score compared to each others defense...so doing the math for example...
Giants offense -25% = 10,13 points
Bears offense 8% = 28, 31 points
But we can't neglect the defense numbers...
Giants defense 7%
Bears defense -7%
So what we have here is a giants defense at 7% that should hold the bears to around 31,28 points...compared to a chargers bad defense at 28% just to compare how bad the chargers defense is compared to the giants...
Bears defense -7% against a giants offense at -25% giants will score but given those numbers ill go as far to say giants get 14 points max...
So according to the percentages calculations the game should hit 31 14 bears for a total of 45...
Now what I like about this under play is if the bears decide not to show up and shi.t the bed and bears backers lose ATS the score should be even lower so an under play shows great value...lets find out tomorrow
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Now what I like about this under play is if the bears decide not to show up and shi.t the bed and bears backers lose ATS the score should be even lower so an under play shows great value...lets find out tomorrow
The only thing is there will be offence in this game. Eli can still pass and Chicago's coach is a believer in offence first. Who knows though....I got burned on Sunday playing the over in the Greenbay and Chicago games.
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GOOD INFO,
The only thing is there will be offence in this game. Eli can still pass and Chicago's coach is a believer in offence first. Who knows though....I got burned on Sunday playing the over in the Greenbay and Chicago games.
i understannd the numbers could point to the 0-5 giants being ranked 31st... but theyre 0-5 ats so I am going to ride them each week until they cover, doubling my bet every week they dont... so it may take a few weeks but I figure I will eventually make money on the giants,,, anyone else agree with my logic? lets just hope its not week 15 before they cover
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i understannd the numbers could point to the 0-5 giants being ranked 31st... but theyre 0-5 ats so I am going to ride them each week until they cover, doubling my bet every week they dont... so it may take a few weeks but I figure I will eventually make money on the giants,,, anyone else agree with my logic? lets just hope its not week 15 before they cover
i understannd the numbers could point to the 0-5 giants being ranked 31st... but theyre 0-5 ats so I am going to ride them each week until they cover, doubling my bet every week they dont... so it may take a few weeks but I figure I will eventually make money on the giants,,, anyone else agree with my logic? lets just hope its not week 15 before they cover
This looks like a Martingale method... not a good idea. When you win, you are up 1 unit total even though you are betting several units after successive losses. I would consider this a poor choice.
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Quote Originally Posted by plopez14325:
i understannd the numbers could point to the 0-5 giants being ranked 31st... but theyre 0-5 ats so I am going to ride them each week until they cover, doubling my bet every week they dont... so it may take a few weeks but I figure I will eventually make money on the giants,,, anyone else agree with my logic? lets just hope its not week 15 before they cover
This looks like a Martingale method... not a good idea. When you win, you are up 1 unit total even though you are betting several units after successive losses. I would consider this a poor choice.
i understannd the numbers could point to the 0-5 giants being ranked 31st... but theyre 0-5 ats so I am going to ride them each week until they cover, doubling my bet every week they dont... so it may take a few weeks but I figure I will eventually make money on the giants,,, anyone else agree with my logic? lets just hope its not week 15 before they cover
this system works great in horse racing because you get odds!
once you start a system, commit to it until you get your money back. start again as you please or stop.
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Quote Originally Posted by plopez14325:
i understannd the numbers could point to the 0-5 giants being ranked 31st... but theyre 0-5 ats so I am going to ride them each week until they cover, doubling my bet every week they dont... so it may take a few weeks but I figure I will eventually make money on the giants,,, anyone else agree with my logic? lets just hope its not week 15 before they cover
this system works great in horse racing because you get odds!
once you start a system, commit to it until you get your money back. start again as you please or stop.
i understannd the numbers could point to the 0-5 giants being ranked 31st... but theyre 0-5 ats so I am going to ride them each week until they cover, doubling my bet every week they dont... so it may take a few weeks but I figure I will eventually make money on the giants,,, anyone else agree with my logic? lets just hope its not week 15 before they cover
If it takes until week 15, you lose. For example, suppose standard bet is $100 to win $90.90. First week you lose $100. Second week bet $200 to win $181.80. If you win, your net winnings are $81.80. If you lose , you bet a third week, $400 to win $363.60. Winning only nets you $63.60. Each week you lose, the vig hits you harder. By week 5 of this system, it's a losing proposition.
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Quote Originally Posted by plopez14325:
i understannd the numbers could point to the 0-5 giants being ranked 31st... but theyre 0-5 ats so I am going to ride them each week until they cover, doubling my bet every week they dont... so it may take a few weeks but I figure I will eventually make money on the giants,,, anyone else agree with my logic? lets just hope its not week 15 before they cover
If it takes until week 15, you lose. For example, suppose standard bet is $100 to win $90.90. First week you lose $100. Second week bet $200 to win $181.80. If you win, your net winnings are $81.80. If you lose , you bet a third week, $400 to win $363.60. Winning only nets you $63.60. Each week you lose, the vig hits you harder. By week 5 of this system, it's a losing proposition.
that's where my totals for O/U become inconsistent...my program only records turnovers as face value regardless of the outcome...if they scored or ended up punting after the turnover...my test run for bears giants game is pretty simple actually as all I'm doing is calculating how much both teams should score compared to each others defense...so doing the math for example...
Giants offense -25% = 10,13 points
Bears offense 8% = 28, 31 points
But we can't neglect the defense numbers...
Giants defense 7%
Bears defense -7%
So what we have here is a giants defense at 7% that should hold the bears to around 31,28 points...compared to a chargers bad defense at 28% just to compare how bad the chargers defense is compared to the giants...
Bears defense -7% against a giants offense at -25% giants will score but given those numbers ill go as far to say giants get 14 points max...
So according to the percentages calculations the game should hit 31 14 bears for a total of 45...
Final score bears 27 Gmen 21 = 48
And that's why I don't play totals pick six from bears...plus, with the NFL promoting more offense and safety I will officially not try to cap another NFL under ever again seriously when jay cutler slid and Gmen defender touched his helmet and called a 15 yard penalty I told myself why I. The world am I wagering on an under on the NFL?
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Quote Originally Posted by AFNfootballnerd:
that's where my totals for O/U become inconsistent...my program only records turnovers as face value regardless of the outcome...if they scored or ended up punting after the turnover...my test run for bears giants game is pretty simple actually as all I'm doing is calculating how much both teams should score compared to each others defense...so doing the math for example...
Giants offense -25% = 10,13 points
Bears offense 8% = 28, 31 points
But we can't neglect the defense numbers...
Giants defense 7%
Bears defense -7%
So what we have here is a giants defense at 7% that should hold the bears to around 31,28 points...compared to a chargers bad defense at 28% just to compare how bad the chargers defense is compared to the giants...
Bears defense -7% against a giants offense at -25% giants will score but given those numbers ill go as far to say giants get 14 points max...
So according to the percentages calculations the game should hit 31 14 bears for a total of 45...
Final score bears 27 Gmen 21 = 48
And that's why I don't play totals pick six from bears...plus, with the NFL promoting more offense and safety I will officially not try to cap another NFL under ever again seriously when jay cutler slid and Gmen defender touched his helmet and called a 15 yard penalty I told myself why I. The world am I wagering on an under on the NFL?
Smart man. I cant see Eagles winning two road games back to back...with injured M.Vick and a terrible defense. Foles isn't a scrub and can make plays but I feel he tries to do too much to secure a starter job in PHI. I like TB coming off the bye being able to prepare for this game like the Coach said last week after the release of J.Freeman... there's a lot of things that come into play but I"m with you on taking TB this weekend.
I also really like Carolina for certain reasons...thoughts? I can explain why...
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Smart man. I cant see Eagles winning two road games back to back...with injured M.Vick and a terrible defense. Foles isn't a scrub and can make plays but I feel he tries to do too much to secure a starter job in PHI. I like TB coming off the bye being able to prepare for this game like the Coach said last week after the release of J.Freeman... there's a lot of things that come into play but I"m with you on taking TB this weekend.
I also really like Carolina for certain reasons...thoughts? I can explain why...
How sold are you on rookie QB Glennon AFN? Hopefully the bye week has given him time to build chemistry with WRs. Foles has done ok so far and has some experience if Vick sits out this game. Doug Martin has struggled so far this season. He's been getting the touches but hasn't done much. If Glennon struggles Martin could be facing a stacked box until Glennon proves himself. Guard Carl Nicks could be out due to staph infection also.
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How sold are you on rookie QB Glennon AFN? Hopefully the bye week has given him time to build chemistry with WRs. Foles has done ok so far and has some experience if Vick sits out this game. Doug Martin has struggled so far this season. He's been getting the touches but hasn't done much. If Glennon struggles Martin could be facing a stacked box until Glennon proves himself. Guard Carl Nicks could be out due to staph infection also.
How sold are you on rookie QB Glennon AFN? Hopefully the bye week has given him time to build chemistry with WRs. Foles has done ok so far and has some experience if Vick sits out this game. Doug Martin has struggled so far this season. He's been getting the touches but hasn't done much. If Glennon struggles Martin could be facing a stacked box until Glennon proves himself. Guard Carl Nicks could be out due to staph infection also.
I'm more sold on tampas defense...
Eagles offense 19% Bucs defense 19%
Exactly same offsetting numbers...so with a Bucs defense and a bye week to prepare for the eagles coming off a road game. Greg schiano must win this game at home coming off a bye. As long as Bucs defense can hold I think glennon can give them a chance if schiano prepared a good game plan coming off a bye
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Quote Originally Posted by prodigy808:
How sold are you on rookie QB Glennon AFN? Hopefully the bye week has given him time to build chemistry with WRs. Foles has done ok so far and has some experience if Vick sits out this game. Doug Martin has struggled so far this season. He's been getting the touches but hasn't done much. If Glennon struggles Martin could be facing a stacked box until Glennon proves himself. Guard Carl Nicks could be out due to staph infection also.
I'm more sold on tampas defense...
Eagles offense 19% Bucs defense 19%
Exactly same offsetting numbers...so with a Bucs defense and a bye week to prepare for the eagles coming off a road game. Greg schiano must win this game at home coming off a bye. As long as Bucs defense can hold I think glennon can give them a chance if schiano prepared a good game plan coming off a bye
If glennon needed a chance to perform well then the eagles coming into to Tampa with the 29th ranked defense would would be his opportunity...hell even gabbert would love to see the eagles defense
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If glennon needed a chance to perform well then the eagles coming into to Tampa with the 29th ranked defense would would be his opportunity...hell even gabbert would love to see the eagles defense
Smart man. I cant see Eagles winning two road games back to back...with injured M.Vick and a terrible defense. Foles isn't a scrub and can make plays but I feel he tries to do too much to secure a starter job in PHI. I like TB coming off the bye being able to prepare for this game like the Coach said last week after the release of J.Freeman... there's a lot of things that come into play but I"m with you on taking TB this weekend.
I also really like Carolina for certain reasons...thoughts? I can explain why...
With Adrian pettersons sons death not sure if he will be a beast or in depression mode or if it motivated the Vikings team as a whole...to much emotion involved to choose a side
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Quote Originally Posted by DaSaltySluG:
Smart man. I cant see Eagles winning two road games back to back...with injured M.Vick and a terrible defense. Foles isn't a scrub and can make plays but I feel he tries to do too much to secure a starter job in PHI. I like TB coming off the bye being able to prepare for this game like the Coach said last week after the release of J.Freeman... there's a lot of things that come into play but I"m with you on taking TB this weekend.
I also really like Carolina for certain reasons...thoughts? I can explain why...
With Adrian pettersons sons death not sure if he will be a beast or in depression mode or if it motivated the Vikings team as a whole...to much emotion involved to choose a side
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