was thinking about doing that but I like to be able to track down my picks and numbers to track all in one thread...plus I like to look back at the percentages and see if there's a trend in losing picks to track accordingly and see if those trends really stand out numbers wise
0
Quote Originally Posted by Sicsemper:
I meant to say a new thread every week.
was thinking about doing that but I like to be able to track down my picks and numbers to track all in one thread...plus I like to look back at the percentages and see if there's a trend in losing picks to track accordingly and see if those trends really stand out numbers wise
Week 2 program numbers...so week 1 in the books and the data has KC ranked number 1 over Denver ranked number 2
It's only week 1 but the program is accurately recording week 1 based off of only 1 week of data so lets not take these numbers or the program to seriously here...as many teams are over valued and under valued...simply put its too early to get an accurate read of the teams with the program numbers...
Program? Hey Hey get your programs here !!!! What kind of program u have computer program? Spreadsheet with all the stats dated back since day 1 ,just curious ..U seem to be a big stat guy, and I might need to follow someone,if i get into a rutt which happens please clue me in ..
the only two games I feel confident in wagering on based off of the numbers that stood out according to the program...
Detroit @ Arizona
Overall team performance matchup-
Detroit 12% Arizona -25%
Offense matchup-
Detroit 8% Arizona -9%
Defense matchup-
Detroit -12% Arizona -1%
Pick Detroit -1.5
Carolina @ Buffalo
Overall teams matchup-
Carolina
Mr Evil.
0
Quote Originally Posted by AFNfootballnerd:
Week 2 program numbers...so week 1 in the books and the data has KC ranked number 1 over Denver ranked number 2
It's only week 1 but the program is accurately recording week 1 based off of only 1 week of data so lets not take these numbers or the program to seriously here...as many teams are over valued and under valued...simply put its too early to get an accurate read of the teams with the program numbers...
Program? Hey Hey get your programs here !!!! What kind of program u have computer program? Spreadsheet with all the stats dated back since day 1 ,just curious ..U seem to be a big stat guy, and I might need to follow someone,if i get into a rutt which happens please clue me in ..
the only two games I feel confident in wagering on based off of the numbers that stood out according to the program...
@trust-me it's a program on my computer that tracks important stats and numbers of the season and gives me percentages to gauge how good or bad a team is performing...I wanted to create a program where the important stats are being recorded rather than espn's rankings and so called "expert analysis"on TV...
For example patriots last year were ranked 3rd overall according to the program with a 30% offense....after week 1 of this season they dropped to -14%! To clear things up 0 = average NFL team...so -14% pats are playing below average compared to their plus 30% last year.
So they were -14% below average on offense and laying -11? jets at -28% is horrible too which a buddy of mine said "yea jets do look like a -28% offense they are bad" couldn't get more accurate than that stats wise as they were both bad offenses..
If you look at the Detroit and Arizona matchup percentages you can see a why the line is -1.5 because they are pretty close on both sides of the ball stats percentages wise...
0
Quote Originally Posted by trust-me:
@trust-me it's a program on my computer that tracks important stats and numbers of the season and gives me percentages to gauge how good or bad a team is performing...I wanted to create a program where the important stats are being recorded rather than espn's rankings and so called "expert analysis"on TV...
For example patriots last year were ranked 3rd overall according to the program with a 30% offense....after week 1 of this season they dropped to -14%! To clear things up 0 = average NFL team...so -14% pats are playing below average compared to their plus 30% last year.
So they were -14% below average on offense and laying -11? jets at -28% is horrible too which a buddy of mine said "yea jets do look like a -28% offense they are bad" couldn't get more accurate than that stats wise as they were both bad offenses..
If you look at the Detroit and Arizona matchup percentages you can see a why the line is -1.5 because they are pretty close on both sides of the ball stats percentages wise...
@AFN , am I reading these numbers correctly about Carolina defensively ?
Defense matchup
Carolina 12% Buffalo -13%
I thought I read a negative number for a defense is better in your system . I have heard Carolina's defense is pretty good and they kept the Seahawks to 12 points . I would have guessed Carolina would have the minus defensive rating and the Bills would have the plus defensive rating .
As a request , say each Tues or Weds , could you rank each team offensively and defensive with your percentages ?
I have my formula for offensive and defensive inertia , and my offensive inertia results outperform my defensive inertia when used ats . Do you find a similar pattern from your results ? Like is it better to use offensive percentage especially early in the season or does defensive percentage work better ats ?
0
@AFN , am I reading these numbers correctly about Carolina defensively ?
Defense matchup
Carolina 12% Buffalo -13%
I thought I read a negative number for a defense is better in your system . I have heard Carolina's defense is pretty good and they kept the Seahawks to 12 points . I would have guessed Carolina would have the minus defensive rating and the Bills would have the plus defensive rating .
As a request , say each Tues or Weds , could you rank each team offensively and defensive with your percentages ?
I have my formula for offensive and defensive inertia , and my offensive inertia results outperform my defensive inertia when used ats . Do you find a similar pattern from your results ? Like is it better to use offensive percentage especially early in the season or does defensive percentage work better ats ?
Such a good tease this morning with bills amazing comeback....but lions again put up the numbers but always find a way to self destruct...and the niners
NFL 3-4
MNF I can't back a steelers team on the road with a -37% offense and only getting 6 points....I expect to see Pitt kick fg's....
Pick bengals -6
0
Such a good tease this morning with bills amazing comeback....but lions again put up the numbers but always find a way to self destruct...and the niners
NFL 3-4
MNF I can't back a steelers team on the road with a -37% offense and only getting 6 points....I expect to see Pitt kick fg's....
i know last year u didnt start until November w/ the plays>>is it ok to start playing them now or should we wait?Thanks for ur plays
I wouldn't follow my picks this early as I'm tracking how efficient program is early in the season...a beta test run hopefully it picks up after week 2 into week 3
0
Quote Originally Posted by King Creole42:
i know last year u didnt start until November w/ the plays>>is it ok to start playing them now or should we wait?Thanks for ur plays
I wouldn't follow my picks this early as I'm tracking how efficient program is early in the season...a beta test run hopefully it picks up after week 2 into week 3
Glad to see youre back this season. What stats are you looking at to build your modeling percentages for offense and defense? I feel like this is a better indicator on what youre doing to factor "trust" or confidence.
Cheers!
0
Glad to see youre back this season. What stats are you looking at to build your modeling percentages for offense and defense? I feel like this is a better indicator on what youre doing to factor "trust" or confidence.
Glad to see youre back this season. What stats are you looking at to build your modeling percentages for offense and defense? I feel like this is a better indicator on what youre doing to factor "trust" or confidence.
Cheers!
data is compiled on both sides of the ball...I then compare them to a league average which gives me a percentage of both offense and defense...I then look at the percentages and compare them to the line...example patriots -30% on offense and laying -11 to anybody? steelers -38% offense on the road and only getting +6? the best percentage I look at are bad defenses on the road..which I totally neglected on the niners pick. I got all excited with niners +35% offense but forgot about the niners +%24 defense on the road a really bad niners defense on the road and I picked niners but that's why it's good to keep track of the bad picks and take notes for future wagers..
NFL 4-4....2 weeks in the books and even more data to get a better reading of the teams in week 3
0
Quote Originally Posted by pcz:
Glad to see youre back this season. What stats are you looking at to build your modeling percentages for offense and defense? I feel like this is a better indicator on what youre doing to factor "trust" or confidence.
Cheers!
data is compiled on both sides of the ball...I then compare them to a league average which gives me a percentage of both offense and defense...I then look at the percentages and compare them to the line...example patriots -30% on offense and laying -11 to anybody? steelers -38% offense on the road and only getting +6? the best percentage I look at are bad defenses on the road..which I totally neglected on the niners pick. I got all excited with niners +35% offense but forgot about the niners +%24 defense on the road a really bad niners defense on the road and I picked niners but that's why it's good to keep track of the bad picks and take notes for future wagers..
NFL 4-4....2 weeks in the books and even more data to get a better reading of the teams in week 3
@ PCZ forgot to answer your question in detail stats are recorded such as first down runs passes etc on offense...total yardage is recorded but doesn't effect the percentages that much...first downs are more important....turnovers are also huge factor in percentages..I Then compare the numbers to NFL average...same goes for defense..3 and outs,sacks, interceptions etc...all compared to an average NFL team...basically the important stats I really care about to get a gauge on a team
0
@ PCZ forgot to answer your question in detail stats are recorded such as first down runs passes etc on offense...total yardage is recorded but doesn't effect the percentages that much...first downs are more important....turnovers are also huge factor in percentages..I Then compare the numbers to NFL average...same goes for defense..3 and outs,sacks, interceptions etc...all compared to an average NFL team...basically the important stats I really care about to get a gauge on a team
If you choose to make use of any information on this website including online sports betting services from any websites that may be featured on
this website, we strongly recommend that you carefully check your local laws before doing so.It is your sole responsibility to understand your local laws and observe them strictly.Covers does not provide
any advice or guidance as to the legality of online sports betting or other online gambling activities within your jurisdiction and you are responsible for complying with laws that are applicable to you in
your relevant locality.Covers disclaims all liability associated with your use of this website and use of any information contained on it.As a condition of using this website, you agree to hold the owner
of this website harmless from any claims arising from your use of any services on any third party website that may be featured by Covers.
but that's why it's good to keep track of the bad picks and take notes for future wagers..
stats are recorded such as first down runs passes etc on offense...total yardage is recorded but doesn't effect the percentages that much...first downs are more important....turnovers are also huge factor in percentages..I Then compare the numbers to NFL average...same goes for defense..3 and outs,sacks, interceptions etc...all compared to an average NFL team...basically the important stats I really care about to get a gauge on a team 
Established in 1995,
Hot Forum Topics
