Had a decent season last year in plays I posted on my twitter, small sample size but hoping I can turn a profit again this year. Last year's tracking can be found here: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1CKjXa-qeqeQb9zeQS1cl0n2rr5L6fT_EIzpVXqFdE6w/edit#gid=0
Will be posting NFL win total Over/Unders, as well as weekly plays. Will probably post more of these, but so far have these future plays. Each are 2u:
Rams U 7 (-130) - analytically should not have won 7 games last year, and did not do much to improve over the off-season. Offense will be similar if not worse (especially with Keenum under center), and defense will be held back by a weak secondary. HBO/LA/Goff move have over-hyped the Rams in public eye.
BUCS U 7.5 (-135) - using pythagorean expectation while normalizing turnover stats, I had the Bucs winning 6.3 games last year. Not much shows me they will be much improved this year unless Winston takes a big step forward. Good offense around him, but a weak O-Line and bad defense will make it tough for Tampa to win 8 games.
49ers U 5 (-105) - I have the 49ers as the worst team in the NFL, and the worst team in the NFL doesn't usually win 5 games. I had them as a 4 win team last year, and would be surprised if they win that many this year. They are a young team with very limited talent. Under.
Texans O 8.5 (-125) - Warning - may be a homer pick but I feel like the Texans are being priced at their floor. TheTexans won 9 games the past two years, and that was with scraps at offense. The offense has received a massive overhaul this off-season, and at worst Osweiler/Lamar Miller/Fuller/Braxton will be able to replicate the production of Hoyer/Blue/Shorts/Washington.
Starting out the season with Broncos +3.5 (-115) for 1u. Hoping to have the rest of my week 1 plays by Friday.
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To remove first post, remove entire topic.
Had a decent season last year in plays I posted on my twitter, small sample size but hoping I can turn a profit again this year. Last year's tracking can be found here: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1CKjXa-qeqeQb9zeQS1cl0n2rr5L6fT_EIzpVXqFdE6w/edit#gid=0
Will be posting NFL win total Over/Unders, as well as weekly plays. Will probably post more of these, but so far have these future plays. Each are 2u:
Rams U 7 (-130) - analytically should not have won 7 games last year, and did not do much to improve over the off-season. Offense will be similar if not worse (especially with Keenum under center), and defense will be held back by a weak secondary. HBO/LA/Goff move have over-hyped the Rams in public eye.
BUCS U 7.5 (-135) - using pythagorean expectation while normalizing turnover stats, I had the Bucs winning 6.3 games last year. Not much shows me they will be much improved this year unless Winston takes a big step forward. Good offense around him, but a weak O-Line and bad defense will make it tough for Tampa to win 8 games.
49ers U 5 (-105) - I have the 49ers as the worst team in the NFL, and the worst team in the NFL doesn't usually win 5 games. I had them as a 4 win team last year, and would be surprised if they win that many this year. They are a young team with very limited talent. Under.
Texans O 8.5 (-125) - Warning - may be a homer pick but I feel like the Texans are being priced at their floor. TheTexans won 9 games the past two years, and that was with scraps at offense. The offense has received a massive overhaul this off-season, and at worst Osweiler/Lamar Miller/Fuller/Braxton will be able to replicate the production of Hoyer/Blue/Shorts/Washington.
Starting out the season with Broncos +3.5 (-115) for 1u. Hoping to have the rest of my week 1 plays by Friday.
Broncos over 9 (+105) 2u - I like the juice on last year’s Super Bowl team and best defense in the NFL to win just 9 games. QB situation isn’t good, but isn't going to be all that much worse than Manning’s corpse and Osweiler’s inconsistencies last year. Running-game should be better, and surrounding offense is great. Kubiak can win with weak QB’s, and Semien might sneakily be a good fit in Kubiak's short throw offense.
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Adding a play on NFL O/U Wins:
Broncos over 9 (+105) 2u - I like the juice on last year’s Super Bowl team and best defense in the NFL to win just 9 games. QB situation isn’t good, but isn't going to be all that much worse than Manning’s corpse and Osweiler’s inconsistencies last year. Running-game should be better, and surrounding offense is great. Kubiak can win with weak QB’s, and Semien might sneakily be a good fit in Kubiak's short throw offense.
Got a little lucky with that Raiders game, but I'll never complain about starting 3-0. Record is 3-0 for +4u on the year, got two plays tonight.
Going Redskins +3 -130. Going to go against the public and take the home dog on opening week. The Steeler's aren't 100% going into this one, and it will be tough for Antonio Brown to go off against Josh Norman. I think it's important to tease the line if available as I did, much more value at a 3 or 3.5 line than at 2.5.
Also taking Rams/49ers 1st Half Under 21.5 -110.
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Got a little lucky with that Raiders game, but I'll never complain about starting 3-0. Record is 3-0 for +4u on the year, got two plays tonight.
Going Redskins +3 -130. Going to go against the public and take the home dog on opening week. The Steeler's aren't 100% going into this one, and it will be tough for Antonio Brown to go off against Josh Norman. I think it's important to tease the line if available as I did, much more value at a 3 or 3.5 line than at 2.5.
Just slapped a unit on Browns +7. No way in hell is RG3 worth 3.5 points, I'd think McCown is a little bit better (as do many models/projection machines) based on how he played last year. I don't love the Browns against an improved Ravens team, but there is good value in this line and it will almost certainly move.
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Just slapped a unit on Browns +7. No way in hell is RG3 worth 3.5 points, I'd think McCown is a little bit better (as do many models/projection machines) based on how he played last year. I don't love the Browns against an improved Ravens team, but there is good value in this line and it will almost certainly move.
Playing Jets -1.0 -110 for 1u. Public and sharp money are all over the Jets right now, so I'm betting now to beat any sort of line movement. I like the Jet's in this spot, at a line that is essentially a pick'em.
Adding a 2u play on Saints/Giants over 52.5 -101. Saints pass rush is horrible and will give Manning plenty of time to find OBJ and his other new receivers against a secondary that was exposed against Oakland last week. On the other side, I expect the Saints to air the ball out against the Giant's solid front-seven and weak secondary. Brees was electric last week, and will have a much easier matchup this week compared to last. I see this one becoming a shoot-out early.
Also like the Panthers, even though the line is pretty hefty at -13.5. The 49ers are on a short week and traveling across the country, while the Panther's have been resting since last Thursday. On top of that, the 49ers dominated on a national stage while the Panther's had a disappointing loss on Thursday Night Football, a perfect storm for public overreaction. I'll wait to see if the line moves a bit down as 64% of spread money has been on the Niners, but I see Carolina dominating SF in this one.
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Playing Jets -1.0 -110 for 1u. Public and sharp money are all over the Jets right now, so I'm betting now to beat any sort of line movement. I like the Jet's in this spot, at a line that is essentially a pick'em.
Adding a 2u play on Saints/Giants over 52.5 -101. Saints pass rush is horrible and will give Manning plenty of time to find OBJ and his other new receivers against a secondary that was exposed against Oakland last week. On the other side, I expect the Saints to air the ball out against the Giant's solid front-seven and weak secondary. Brees was electric last week, and will have a much easier matchup this week compared to last. I see this one becoming a shoot-out early.
Also like the Panthers, even though the line is pretty hefty at -13.5. The 49ers are on a short week and traveling across the country, while the Panther's have been resting since last Thursday. On top of that, the 49ers dominated on a national stage while the Panther's had a disappointing loss on Thursday Night Football, a perfect storm for public overreaction. I'll wait to see if the line moves a bit down as 64% of spread money has been on the Niners, but I see Carolina dominating SF in this one.
Strange push, as I'm still seeing 70% of bets and 73% of money bein on the Jet's spread. Somewhat concerning, but I'm not sweating it too hard. Still essentially a pick'em.
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Strange push, as I'm still seeing 70% of bets and 73% of money bein on the Jet's spread. Somewhat concerning, but I'm not sweating it too hard. Still essentially a pick'em.
Week 2 Recap: 5-3 for -0.6u. Puts me at 9-4 for the season for +3.1u. Hoping to get my week 2 plays in early this time, shooting for today or at latest tomorrow.
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Week 2 Recap: 5-3 for -0.6u. Puts me at 9-4 for the season for +3.1u. Hoping to get my week 2 plays in early this time, shooting for today or at latest tomorrow.
Putting 1u on the Texans Pick'Em -110. I get it, it's tough to bet against Bellicheck at home on primetime regardless of who the QB is. But that were my exact thoughts, despite being a Houston fan and Texans homer. This may be a homer pick, but at this point I'm just trying to fade the public. The money is heavily on the Texans, and I'm going to follow the sharps. I think the Texans are legit this year, and I'm taking them against a 3rd string QB.
Other early leans are Dolphins +9.5, Lions +7.5, Ravens +1, and Chargers +3. Will do more research and get the rest of this week's plays out tomorrow hopefully.
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Putting 1u on the Texans Pick'Em -110. I get it, it's tough to bet against Bellicheck at home on primetime regardless of who the QB is. But that were my exact thoughts, despite being a Houston fan and Texans homer. This may be a homer pick, but at this point I'm just trying to fade the public. The money is heavily on the Texans, and I'm going to follow the sharps. I think the Texans are legit this year, and I'm taking them against a 3rd string QB.
Other early leans are Dolphins +9.5, Lions +7.5, Ravens +1, and Chargers +3. Will do more research and get the rest of this week's plays out tomorrow hopefully.
Chargers +3 -120 2u - Philip Rivers tore apart the Jags last week, and will get the chance to do the same against the Colt's decimated secondary this week. The Colts defense has looked terrible this year, and they will find it tough to exploit one of the Charger's biggest glaring weakness (O-Line) with their weak front-seven. SD offense is already starting to repeat last year's injury feast, but Melvin Gordon has looked good and I expect McCluster to pickup Woodhead's role fairly seamlessly. With limited stats at the start of the year, a large part of handicapping early games is gut and matchup, and I love the Charger's line at +3.
Lions +7.5 -110 1u - I feel this is a generous line given the Packer's offensive struggles this year. The Lions are able to put up points, and if A-Rodg doesn't come out firing I could easily see this game being close. The Packers are a sexy team and Rodger's is a fan favorite while the Lions are still synonymous with 0-16 internet memes and the Cleveland Browns. The money is heavily on the Lions (both ATS and ML) despite the public being pretty 50-50, and I'm following the sharps on this one. Give me the Lions and the points.
Ravens/Jaguars 1st Half Under 23.5 -110 1u - gotta give props to my boy @byeweekpicks for this one, I love his first half under plays and I agree with this one. I don't expect this one to be very high scoring, especially not early in the game. 23.5 is a high number. Under.
May add a few others, considering Bears +7.5, Rams/Bucs Under 42, and Jets +3.
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Week 3 Plays:
Texans Pk -110 1u
Chargers +3 -120 2u - Philip Rivers tore apart the Jags last week, and will get the chance to do the same against the Colt's decimated secondary this week. The Colts defense has looked terrible this year, and they will find it tough to exploit one of the Charger's biggest glaring weakness (O-Line) with their weak front-seven. SD offense is already starting to repeat last year's injury feast, but Melvin Gordon has looked good and I expect McCluster to pickup Woodhead's role fairly seamlessly. With limited stats at the start of the year, a large part of handicapping early games is gut and matchup, and I love the Charger's line at +3.
Lions +7.5 -110 1u - I feel this is a generous line given the Packer's offensive struggles this year. The Lions are able to put up points, and if A-Rodg doesn't come out firing I could easily see this game being close. The Packers are a sexy team and Rodger's is a fan favorite while the Lions are still synonymous with 0-16 internet memes and the Cleveland Browns. The money is heavily on the Lions (both ATS and ML) despite the public being pretty 50-50, and I'm following the sharps on this one. Give me the Lions and the points.
Ravens/Jaguars 1st Half Under 23.5 -110 1u - gotta give props to my boy @byeweekpicks for this one, I love his first half under plays and I agree with this one. I don't expect this one to be very high scoring, especially not early in the game. 23.5 is a high number. Under.
May add a few others, considering Bears +7.5, Rams/Bucs Under 42, and Jets +3.
Adding 1u on the Bears +7.5 and Vikings +7. Like the value on Chicago and Minny. Panther's secondary is garbage this year, and Diggs has been killing it. I think Minny and Bears both play it close.
Going heavy dogs this week, but I like this approach early in the year. Hasn't been figured out which teams will actually be good this year, so there's more parity than usual.
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Adding 1u on the Bears +7.5 and Vikings +7. Like the value on Chicago and Minny. Panther's secondary is garbage this year, and Diggs has been killing it. I think Minny and Bears both play it close.
Going heavy dogs this week, but I like this approach early in the year. Hasn't been figured out which teams will actually be good this year, so there's more parity than usual.
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