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***3 HUGE NFL PLAYS FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY***

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Prospect
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Posted: #201
Prime my bookie has Ravens @ -17 is that still a solid play for me to take?
 
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Posted: #202
Quote Originally Posted by mrbelvidere2010:

That is incredible value. Has a legit shot to take it down. IMHO no way the Steelers/Ravens/Jets/Packers lose. Vick is back and the Giants played the type of game they can really build on going forward. Just wondering. Did you think of replacing the Giants with Atlanta?

 

EAGLES are a mess. Phins are on fire.  Now that Vick is back and this team out of the playoff pic, they suddenly turn it on?

Miami

 
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Posted: #203

Quote Originally Posted by F-150:

Prime my bookie has Ravens @ -17 is that still a solid play for me to take?

Ravens might not even score 17. . .You never know which Flacco will show up. . .

 
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Posted: #204
Quote Originally Posted by F-150:

Prime my bookie has Ravens @ -17 is that still a solid play for me to take?



Yes, you are still good....................
 
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Posted: #205
Quote Originally Posted by forkball:

Ravens might not even score 17. . .You never know which Flacco will show up. . .



Against this Colts defense, please dont make me laugh.............I see you also said Miami is hot & the Eagles arent going anywhere...........where is Miami actually going? 

Miami covered 6 straight, what goes up must come down..............Eagles will clobber the Dolphins.................
 
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Posted: #206

I really hope you look at how unbelieveable the Dolphins defense has been playing the last 6 weeks and buy back some of your money on the Eagles.

Oakland - 14 (all 14 scored in garbage time vs prevent.)

Dallas - 20 (7 of those scored on a 5 yard drive)

Buffalo - 8 (zero TDs)

Washington - 9 (zero tds)

KC - 3 (dominating)

This defense is clicking and is completly different with Vontae Davis playing. I just don't see why you are so high on the Eagles.

Just trying to help out a fellow pennsylvanian. gl

 
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Posted: #207
Trends:


Eagles are 19-5 ATS on the road after losing to an NFC opponent (1-1 this season)

Eagles are 10-3 ATS as a dog of 3 points or less (0-1 this season vs Patriots)

Eagles are 12-6 ATS vs opponents that scored 30 or more points previous game (1-1 ATS this season)

Eagles are 23-10 ATS as a dog last 33 times (1-1 ATS this season)

Eagles are 7-1 ATS as a December dog

Eagles are 15-6 ATS on the road after losing SU as a favorite


I am not laying all this money on the Eagles just because of trends but I do like when everything links together in my favor............


 
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Posted: #208
Great work Prime, you da man.

BOL this weekend 
 
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Posted: #209
Not to mention, historically, the Dolphins play better on the road and SUCK at home.....yeah they won a couple in a row but i think that trend restarts Sunday.....

Pattern Play- The Eagles have lost to a +3 spread and a -3 spread in two consecutive games....Vegas knows the Dophins are hot and are getting plenty of action on their suggested -3 line.....

Trap game?? I think so.......EAGLES ALLL DAY

Plus that dude on the Eagles will step up finally cause after his performance in Seattle his agent will tell him how other teams wont fuck with him with that attitude, sure the Eagles season is over but they still got pride and contracts to play for
 
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Posted: #210
Trends:



Seattle is 12-1 SU & 10-3 ATS vs the Rams

Seattle is 1-16 ATS  after winning by 14 or more points, I still like Seattle in this spot

Seattle is 14-7-2 ATS after scoring 30 or more points

Rams are 35-25-2 ATS as a road dog of 7 or more points (0-3 ATS this season)

Rams are 1-8 on the road in December vs an opponent off a SU non-division win

Rams are 1-7 ATS after playing the 49ers

Rams are 2-10 ATS off a division road game



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Here is a total system play:


Play the Under in December if a division road team beat a division opponent SU at home the previous week: Play 49ers/Cards Under 39.............35-15-1 ATS...........70%


Play the Over in December if a non-division home dog allowed 17 or less points the previous week: Play Saints/Titans Over 50...............30-13.............70%..........past 15 years
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Posted: #211
Here is a system favoring the Skins, not a strong one but still decent:



Go against a road favorite in December that allowed 275 or more passing yards the previous week............the Pats allowed 338 to the Colts .............35-21 ATS............63%...........past 17 years.


Play on Skins +8




 
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Posted: #212
Quote Originally Posted by Johnbongo:

Great work Prime, you da man.

BOL this weekend 


Thanks Bongo..................
 
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Posted: #213
Quote Originally Posted by aaustinova67:

Not to mention, historically, the Dolphins play better on the road and SUCK at home.....yeah they won a couple in a row but i think that trend restarts Sunday.....

Pattern Play- The Eagles have lost to a +3 spread and a -3 spread in two consecutive games....Vegas knows the Dophins are hot and are getting plenty of action on their suggested -3 line.....

Trap game?? I think so.......EAGLES ALLL DAY

Plus that dude on the Eagles will step up finally cause after his performance in Seattle his agent will tell him how other teams wont fuck with him with that attitude, sure the Eagles season is over but they still got pride and contracts to play for

Heres a trend: Eagles are 0-2 vs the AFC East this year allowing 31 points or more in each game.

This is why trends are misleading to me.

picking and choosing when you think trends will stop and end means nothing. Its all personal opinion

 
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Posted: #214
Another system:


Play on a non-conference home team that won SU as a road dog in lat 4 weeks of the season.................39-18 ATS............68%...............past 21 years.


Play on: Titans +3.5

Play on: Broncos -3 
 
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Posted: #215
 
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Posted: #216
Quote Originally Posted by earthWake:

Heres a trend: Eagles are 0-2 vs the AFC East this year allowing 31 points or more in each game.

This is why trends are misleading to me.

picking and choosing when you think trends will stop and end means nothing. Its all personal opinion



One thing that everyone should understand is that trends are made to be used as a capping tool............I hope no one is using trends & systems to blindly wager on a game...............

When everything lines up on the side I am looking to wager on, it just gives me more confidence on my play.

 For instance, I liked the Steelers most of the week but when I found several trends going against the Steelers & how the public has been getting smashed on Thursdays, well, it helped make a decision to pull of the game & turns out it was the correct decision.

I like the Bears this week but I just posted a system that likes the Broncos so I wont be adding anymore with the Bears but I wont get off the Bears either unless I find something that really tilts the advantage to the Broncos.

Like I said, this stuff is just to be used as a tool & not to blindly wager on teams..................
 
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Posted: #217
More systems:


Go against a road favorite in December that scored 28 or more points the previous week................70-43........62%...............(23-11 past 3 years).........................Play on: Skins +8..........Titans +3.5



 
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Posted: #218
Prime what do you think about bengels? any significant  trends in that match-up?
 
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Posted: #219
Rams to not win a half is currently -128 and no quarters is +260
 
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Posted: #220
Quote Originally Posted by F-150:

Prime what do you think about bengels? any significant  trends in that match-up?


Too many trends against the Bengals in this game...............here are a few:


Bengals are 2-11 ATS after losing by 10 or more SU to a division opponent

Bengals are 3-15 ATS as a home favorite after allowing 20 or more points under Lewis (1-2 ATS this season)

Bengals are 0-8 ATS as a favorite off a double digit SU loss

Bengals are 11-1 ATS at home in December off a SU & ATS loss vs .500 or better opponent


There is more & I actually had them typed out & was about to post them but something happened & everything got erased. I dont like this game.

 
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Posted: #221
Quote Originally Posted by TRAIN69:

Rams to not win a half is currently -128 and no quarters is +260



Just the Hawks full game for me man, gl with your prop bets..............
 
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Posted: #222
Thanks again
 
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Posted: #223
Quote Originally Posted by PrimeTimeBoys:




Just the Hawks full game for me man, gl with your prop bets..............

 I like Seattle, but 9 was a little steep for me. I figure if they cover the 9, they get up early and dont look back.

bol ptb

 
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Posted: #224
Train, on those quarter wagers, if it puses for a quarter do you lose if you have the favorite?
 
 
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Posted: #225
*pushes
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