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Hello savvy sports investors, how’s it going? We are coming off a disappointing week where we got one correct pick and two that were wrong. Our season record is now 24-15-2, a 61.5% success rate.
I’ve got 4 picks for you this week, and I do feel good about them.
PICK #1: San Francisco 49ers +7 vs Seattle Seahawks
If you believe the fatigue factor is important when handicapping NFL games, then this one is for you. Rest is definitely in favor of the 49ers here. Not only are they coming off their bye week, but the Seahawks played Monday night, thus losing one day of preparation. To top it all off, San Francisco will be at home for a fourth consecutive week after hosting the Cards and the Giants and being on a bye. That is seldom seen in the NFL, especially combined with the 8 extra days of preparation over what Seattle has.
One more thing I like about this pick is the fact that the Seahawks might overlook this game a little bit, as it is being sandwiched between a key matchup with the Falcons last week, and a tough challenge against the 9-1 Philadelphia Eagles next week. The only factor I don’t like about this game is how the Seahawks might be mad and motivated following a home loss on primetime television.
The 49ers will be looking to avenge a 12-9 loss earlier this year against those same Seahawks in Seattle. Paul Richardson caught a 9-yard TD pass with 7 minutes remaining to put the Seahawks up for good, but they definitely had trouble handling the Niners. Seattle swept the season series last year, but they struggled in San Francisco in a 25-23 win, a game where they trailed 14-3 early on. The Seahawks made a comeback before pulling some starters in the fourth quarter because it was the last game of the season and it turned out to be meaningless for them.
I could see the Seahawks crumbling through the rest of the season and missing the playoffs. Their defense is banged up, their running game is average at best, and Russell Wilson has been running for his life on many occasions. Thank God he is great at escaping the pressure and extending plays, otherwise they would be doomed with such a mediocre offensive line. I don’t believe they will win by more than one touchdown on the road.
PICK #2: New York Jets +5 vs Carolina Panthers
Both teams are in similar conditions with respect to the rest factor. They are both coming off their bye week and neither team has had to travel much recently. As a matter of fact, prior to having the week off, the Panthers had played a couple of home games in a row, while the Jets had played two out of three games at home.
I’m afraid the Panthers won’t show up in top form this week. First, their last game was a cakewalk when they handled the Dolphins easily by a 45-21 score. Also, they might get caught peeking ahead to their upcoming showdown in New Orleans on week #13.
The cold weather might come into play as well. At the time of this writing (Tuesday November 21), it is expected that it will feel like one degree Celcius or 34 degrees Farenheit next Sunday. That could go in favor of the Jets, who are more used to that kind of weather, especially quarterback Josh McCown who has played a few seasons with cold-weather teams like the Browns and the Bears.
The Jets have been tough to beat at MetLife Stadium this year. They are 3-2, with their only two losses occurring against the Patriots by a 7-point margin and the Falcons by a 5-point deficit, so basically nothing to be ashamed of. Granted, the Panthers are 4-1 on the road, but keep in mind they have lost 17-3 at Chicago.
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