49ers -5.5 vs DTR led Cleveland?

49ers juggernaut playing mistake free football bringing things that travel (defense, running game) to Clevleland who you have to consider a pretty big mess.

Cleveland defensive stats pumped up by outings vs low ranked offenses of Bengals, Steelers and Titans. The Ravens average+ offense put up four TDs on them.

Deshaun Watson has already missed both Monday and Tuesday practices. Low character guy with a huge guaranteed contract, he already bailed on his team vs Ravens when cleared to play. If he does return to practice and play he'd probably play two series, look bad maybe take a hard sack or throw an INT and grab his shoulder and bail on his team again.

I like DTR from his college days but against a top D with no Nick Chubb and injuries on the offensive line I think he would have another bad game just like he did vs the Ravens.

I myself loaded up on ML last night at -210 although I did take some -5 action as well. In Billy Walters new book there is a point spread to moneyline conversion chart, and it say for a 5 point spread anything better than -237 is  better bet than the points, and I figure that guy knows a lot more than me so I put it to use. -210 is considered fair to a -4 point spread.

Maybe this is the ultimate sucker/Joe Public bet but I took the bait. I don't think the 49ers will go undefeated but I do not think the banged up Watson or DTR led Browns are going to be the team to knock them off.

I bought the half point and laid 2K on it -4 yesterday.  Concerns are a let-down game on the road early Sunday back east.  All bad.  But......The niners cannot afford to lose games against teams with gimpy QB or back up rookie QB.  They are fighting for the home field and bye.  They need to win every winnable game before the schedule gets tough in late November into December.  They should win the game and should cover -4.  When Watson is officially announced as out, the spread will jump to -7 or more.  I thought about the money line...but at more than 1-2 payout its tough.  Good Luck!!!!  

Apparently now if Watson does not play the starter will be PJ Walker and not DTR.

I'd say he is a bit of an improvement over DTR since he is a veteran but he's a marginal 53 man roster guy.

Walker will play, which is a huge upgrade over DTR (in what universe would you ever say that?).

Interesting dynamic here with CLE's pass rush though.  I think Purdy will be surprised at what the Browns D will bring in terms of pressure.

Go figure I like the Browns in this spot...

missing a decimal place ther bro-55.5 yu mean browns 9ers haha///soxxz  -5555pts....

@KempDunkLister

 9ers playing in the dawg pound..prissy friscae nivkers..dawg pound..haha...the orioles cab pickupthe crums cause joes boys gonna get smacked doen...

real fkn hard...bad moonrising..

but ilikr the niners to win..

aye ya fekrs you support the brons...cause eway.....and we owe them...broons eat niners fer brekkie...

but if i brroons in frisco..coldest winter ever was that summer they moved woodstock for the weather....

they still f em....browns ya bass

dawgs till we die...

say yer prayers elway...one day some time imgonna say see yu..actually ill sifgn iyt ya fknnn..

5678 best gagetqb...wish clevelenad had ya first..

The line is now -6 and -6.5 on all the sites I look at.  It will only go up.  The ML is now around -250.  

P.J. Walker career stats:  5 TDs, 11 INTs.  That inspires ZERO confidence in this CLV fan.  However, I have a query which favors CLV, so I will probably suppress my gag reflex and bet on my favorite team.

I will have a tough time risking more than one unit.

@DogbiteWilliams

At some point SF will throw in a stinker.  I just don't think this week is the week given Cleveland's QB situation.  Yes, they are rested and at home, but the niners literally played 2.5 quarters Sunday Night.  They are as rested coming off of a game than any team can be.  They are playing for home field and the bye, which is a huge deal for them and any team.  They also have a TON of high character players and coaches that will be preaching "Trap Game" all week.  Can the 49ers throw in a stinker this week?  Sure.......but I wouldn't bet on it.  The 2nd Seattle game is the ultimate trap game for SF coming off of a road game at Phily later this year which may determine home field and the bye.  Or the week after the Seattle game, travelling to Arizona the week before a home game against Baltimore and coming off 3 straight weeks: @ Seattle; @ Phily; vs. Seattle.  GOOD LUCK with all of your plays Dogbite........

@DogbiteWilliams

My apologies for the double post.  Love computers........

@Vanrush

 Only concern for the 9'ers is KS use of CMC looks tired after 5 games, needs to rest or use him more tactically, plenty of other weapons, Deebo and Jusyk to name 2, some traps but for reasons mentioned, Watson a fraud/pretender and the 'locker room' will explode sooner than later ..... adios Browns yet again...

why would anyone like the browns in this spot 

@Coben

Yes, Shanahan has used CMC too much first five games.  Especially the game that Mitchell got zero touches and was healthy.  I have no defense for that one.  Deebo, Aiyuk and Kittle are all more than capable of picking up any slack that may be given to CMC this week and moving forward.  Just look at all 5 games, the three other offensive stars all shined in separate games while CMC has been a rock of elite consistency.  If Watson sits out again, Cleveland will get blown out.  If he plays, their defense needs to play a super bowl type game to keep it close.  No Chubb, gimpy QB or back up starting who is not a very good back up.....All of this adds up to SF winning and covering 4 points, which is the only number I am concerned with since I bet it at that line.  It will be -7 or more if Watson is ruled out.  If I were betting Cleveland, I would wait to see if Watson plays....even if he does, the gambler who bets Cleveland will get much better odds for both the line and money line towards the end of the week.  This is why I jumped on -4.5 so quickly.  

@Vanrush

CLV fans and/or fundamental handicappers, please discuss/analyze this for me.  This is CLV's RB depth chart with career YPRA stats per Pro Football Reference:

Jerome Ford   3.41

Kareem Hunt   4.48

Pierre Strong Jr.   7.70

JF and PSJ do not have that many carries and their averages have been skewed by some long gains.  If we deduct JF's 69-yard gain vs. PIT, his average plunges to an abysmal 2.05 YPRA!  Deducting 40- and 44-yard gains, PSJ's average falls to 4.43, which is still far better than JF's.  I readily admit I don't understand football and I am no fundamental handicapper, but this makes no sense to me whatsoever.  With C Ethan Pocic on IR and RT Jack Conklin out for the year, it's hard to see CLV's rushing attack with JF as the featured RB amounting to anything vs. SF.

I’m large on the 9ers this week as well . Bought it down to -3 at -174 . Not a knock on my confidence level with them at 5.5 but I’ve been bit before with 3.5-4.5 #s in the past . I still think they roll 30-17

Browns are toast lol. 

is that duck billed plateee pus elway playing..gonna be there..within hundred miles.....eh..

dawgs rar...and keep wthn ...13.5

...deaf denver born .bumhead

@szhcik

 9ers -13.5...stealin muni..ffs lock t in ...noo...

Niners about to be teased and ML parlayed to death

49ers now -7 and -290 ML.   hehe

That Browns defense is being overlooked because of the egg they laid against Baltimore where Lamar Jackson basically had a career day and played to that MVP level we haven't seen since. He was putting the ball wherever he wanted. Browns defense is physical and fast and can make this a game. 

I agree Cleveland's D may keep it close for a bit.  Ultimately, they will not be able to move the ball consistently or at all.  For the niners to cover for literally everyone who has bet on it up to now, they have to win by 7 points.  It is now -7.5 -310 money line on one of my sites, and the other site has pulled the line altogether.  What does that tell you??