Posted:
#1
12-5-1 YTD
My line: LAR -.4
This would normally not be a play for me(only 1.6 points for SF not enough value from my model)but a couple of intangible factors make me like it.
6 words: Relativity. Public perception. Size. Depth. Coaching.
Relativity and public perception: Coming into the year I had both Carolina and Seattle ranked as top 10 teams and top 6 defenses. 49ers just went to war with both those teams and despite some losses really impressed me. Their defense kept them in both games- against Cam and Rus no less. So far Hoyer has pooped the bed. Let's pretend he played average in both games... They probably lose but cover vs. Carolina and prolly beat SEA.... IN SEA. I think the #'s I use for my model are kinda skewed by the fact that Rams played a below average team and a team that quit with a trash QB where as the 49ers #'s are a little skewed from playing elite competition.
Let's be real. Hoyer is a below average QB.... But let's also be real he is experienced, and he's not THAT much below average. He has proven plenty of times he can manage games and make a couple throws here and there. He actually was a top 16 QB 3 out of the last 4 years according to PFF. Let's stop pretending like he's trash.
The Rams destroyed a Colts team with maybe the worst QB we will see all year take the field and the Colts team quit fast in that game. That's the honest truth. Washington is a below average team who is still looking for timing and consistency on offense after Reed/Doctson missed all of camp. They were also playing at home both games. Sorry guys... I'm not impressed. The Rams defense on short rest in their 1st road game of the year after playing on short rest is going to be like switching from all madden to rookie at half time.
For whatever reason everyone is all raving about Goff. He's made some nice throws but most of them were on busted coverages and 1 of his best weapons won't be playing in this game. (TE Everett) 25% of his yards have gone to Everett. He was awful last year. He's had some yuck moments the last couple games too. I'm not backing him on the road against this SF defense who even before week 1 I've said was very good. With Everett out, you've got 2 nonathletic TE's who struggle to get separation, Woods who can't get separation, a rookie(Kupp- who admittedly has looked good but still a rookie), and Watkins. Watkins really the only guy on offense that in my opinion is a mismatch.
Side note- Ray Ray Armstrong has been garbage for SF at LB and is finally going to lose snaps or be benched all together to Coyle, who is a HUGE upgrade in coverage ability. People are going to talk about missing Reid, who is great, but his replacement has been the best player in the secondary through 2 games(Tartt). SF defense has only 2 real weaknesses in my opinion- their 2nd and nickel corner. As mentioned I do not think the Rams offense has the talent at 2nd/3rd WR to take advantage of that. Everybody on the Rams offensive line other than Andrew Whitworth has looked like hot garbage to me. The 49ers gonna be able to cover them, and an extremely talented front 4(with 2 really good bench edge rushers-Doom/Tank) are going to be able to get to Goff-book it.
Size and depth: Wade Phillips my dude but this team is not equipped to be a 3-4 yet. Brockers and Westbooks are not bulky/strong enough to be 1 gap 3-4 defensive ends. Quinn weighs 250 lbs soaking wet and hasn't impressed me in a long time. Staley gonna handle that man. Trent Brown is the best RT in the league and he'll be playing against Connor Barwin who somehow got another starting job despite always been trash. He's also 250 lbs. RT Trent Brown is 355 lol. Aaron Donald is a beast but no way can he be full Aaron Donald off short rest and playing a ton of snaps after missing all of training camp. He's also only 280. There is not much bulk on the Rams d-line. Mark Barron is a pretty good cover LB but let's be real he's small for a LB and is a converted safety. The Rams have a 5-8 safety, and a 5'8 starting corner. Rams are most likely to be without CB Webster again and their 3rd/4th CB will be a rookie and a guy who has been awful and is coming off a 2 game suspension(Hill). If Rams lose a corner to injury in game they got some real problems. Their entire defense is small. We saw what Washington did to them y'all. Hyde is almost the same size as both of the Ram's edge rushers, is extremely elusive, and this is run specialist Kyle Shanahan. I would be surprised is Hyde ran for less than 150 yards. That's gonna open up the passing game. Not saying Hoyer gonna be Brady but I think he'll have some really easy looks with LA getting gashed on the ground.
Coaching: Mcvay is really young y'all. Shanahan is older and has a pretty amazing coaching tree he is coming from. I like his consistent aggressiveness despite some poor QB play and his play calling and run game design has always drawn raves around the league. Coaching is hard to numerically quantify and is often very biased but in my opinion the 49ers have a big coaching advantage. Also... worth noting in the media.... Mcvay when asked if he is sleeping at the office said "I dunno about that"... Shanahan is literally sleeping at the office this week. I think the 49ers gonna be the more prepared team- especially with a big experience advantage at QB.
49ers +2
Good luck!
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