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    All Forums | NFL Betting Forum

    4th and 4 from the KC 9 in OT

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    NFLJOE1973
    brn2loslive2win
    Klaista2k
    ArtSchlichterJr
    Win4Ever
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    NFLJOE1973
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    Posted: Feb. 11, 2024 - 11:49 PM ET #26

    @davemsh

     Sorry man but you’re dead wrong on this one. With the new rules you take the ball first. Simply put, if the chiefs matched them with a FG the niners have a chance for a walk off win with a FG.

     

    That being said, Shanahan didn’t call a good game. Abandoned the run when he didn’t need to. 

    Reply

    @davemsh

     Sorry man but you’re dead wrong on this one. With the new rules you take the ball first. Simply put, if the chiefs matched them with a FG the niners have a chance for a walk off win with a FG.

     

    That being said, Shanahan didn’t call a good game. Abandoned the run when he didn’t need to. 

     
    brn2loslive2win
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    Posted: Feb. 12, 2024 - 12:26 AM ET #27

    Any thoughts on SF kicking in the 4th when it was tied 16-16? First off, sending Moody out there was far from a sure thing. It was 4th and 4 I believe and SF was moving the ball well. If they go for it and get it, they have a chance to win in regulation by running the clock down. If they don’t get it they still have a chance to get a stop on defense and force OT. Would have been an aggressive call but the outcome didn’t end well the way they played it.

    Reply

    Any thoughts on SF kicking in the 4th when it was tied 16-16? First off, sending Moody out there was far from a sure thing. It was 4th and 4 I believe and SF was moving the ball well. If they go for it and get it, they have a chance to win in regulation by running the clock down. If they don’t get it they still have a chance to get a stop on defense and force OT. Would have been an aggressive call but the outcome didn’t end well the way they played it.

     
    Klaista2k
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    Posted: Feb. 12, 2024 - 6:27 PM ET #28

    Dave is actually 100% right on this.

    You have to ask yourself even if SF makes the fg what are the chances they actually stop Mahomes and the Chiefs?

    The right call is to go for it and even if you don't make it at least the Chiefs are backed up far in their own end.

    Reply

    Dave is actually 100% right on this.

    You have to ask yourself even if SF makes the fg what are the chances they actually stop Mahomes and the Chiefs?

    The right call is to go for it and even if you don't make it at least the Chiefs are backed up far in their own end.

     
    ArtSchlichterJr
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    Posted: Feb. 12, 2024 - 6:36 PM ET #29

    Exactly and by knowing that you run CM on 3rd and 4 and see what he gets because we are going on 4th if needed..  Putting it in BP hand instead of CM major issue IMO.. peace_5

    Be careful with the axe Eugene.
    Reply

    Exactly and by knowing that you run CM on 3rd and 4 and see what he gets because we are going on 4th if needed..  Putting it in BP hand instead of CM major issue IMO.. peace_5

     
    Win4Ever
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    Posted: Feb. 12, 2024 - 6:54 PM ET #30

    Why are people talking about deferring?  That would have been the dumbest thing any coach could have done.  If you score a td, the other team still gets a chance, but any score after each team has the ball ends the game.  Yeah, technically if you’re going to plan on going for 2 getting the ball second it’s moot, but that’s still a risky proposition.  Not going for on a 4th was poor coaching, electing to receive first was not imo.  

    Reply

    Why are people talking about deferring?  That would have been the dumbest thing any coach could have done.  If you score a td, the other team still gets a chance, but any score after each team has the ball ends the game.  Yeah, technically if you’re going to plan on going for 2 getting the ball second it’s moot, but that’s still a risky proposition.  Not going for on a 4th was poor coaching, electing to receive first was not imo.  

     
    raceman06
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    Posted: Feb. 12, 2024 - 7:45 PM ET #31

    @Win4Ever

     Tell me you are joking. With the new rules deferring is the smartest thing you can do. The team with the ball first has to show their hand. This sets up the team with the ball second to know exactly what it takes to win. 

    The chiefs knew they needed 3 for a tie and TD for the win. That meant they are going for every 4th down situation.  Also if niners score TD and extra point then chiefs could still go down and score TD then 2 point conversion for the win. 

    Chiefs had already said they would have deferred. 

    Reply

    @Win4Ever

     Tell me you are joking. With the new rules deferring is the smartest thing you can do. The team with the ball first has to show their hand. This sets up the team with the ball second to know exactly what it takes to win. 

    The chiefs knew they needed 3 for a tie and TD for the win. That meant they are going for every 4th down situation.  Also if niners score TD and extra point then chiefs could still go down and score TD then 2 point conversion for the win. 

    Chiefs had already said they would have deferred. 

     
    HabsHater88
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    Posted: Feb. 12, 2024 - 7:51 PM ET #32

    I would have run a draw play on 3rd and 4.. 

    Reply

    I would have run a draw play on 3rd and 4.. 

     
    davemsh
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    Posted: Feb. 12, 2024 - 7:53 PM ET #33

    Quote Originally Posted by Win4Ever:

    Why are people talking about deferring?  That would have been the dumbest thing any coach could have done.  If you score a td, the other team still gets a chance, but any score after each team has the ball ends the game.  Yeah, technically if you’re going to plan on going for 2 getting the ball second it’s moot, but that’s still a risky proposition.  Not going for on a 4th was poor coaching, electing to receive first was not imo.

     

     

    Wonder why 49ers had to kick a FG in OT on 4th and 4 from the KC 9...BECAUSE THEY TOOK THE BALL 1ST

    Mayweather bet 450000 on
    Reply

    Quote Originally Posted by Win4Ever:

    Why are people talking about deferring?  That would have been the dumbest thing any coach could have done.  If you score a td, the other team still gets a chance, but any score after each team has the ball ends the game.  Yeah, technically if you’re going to plan on going for 2 getting the ball second it’s moot, but that’s still a risky proposition.  Not going for on a 4th was poor coaching, electing to receive first was not imo.

     

     

    Wonder why 49ers had to kick a FG in OT on 4th and 4 from the KC 9...BECAUSE THEY TOOK THE BALL 1ST

     
    jerseyj24
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    Posted: Feb. 12, 2024 - 7:58 PM ET #34

    Quote Originally Posted by davemsh:

    And Shanny Kicks a FG......You 100% have to go for a TD......Worse case is KC is pinned back at the 49ers 9 yard line and KC would not go for it on 4th down as game would be tied.....Did he not see what Maholmes did end of regulation down 3? Chiefs would have scored a TD if they had 10 more seconds...Furthermore..Shanny went for it on 4th and 3 on KC 12 down 13-10 4th quarter  and they scored a TD...yet he pusssiess out and kicks the FG..

     

           That kind of playcalling is why the Detroit Lions were watching the Super Bowl on TV and why Brandon Staley is unemployed.

    Reply

    Quote Originally Posted by davemsh:

    And Shanny Kicks a FG......You 100% have to go for a TD......Worse case is KC is pinned back at the 49ers 9 yard line and KC would not go for it on 4th down as game would be tied.....Did he not see what Maholmes did end of regulation down 3? Chiefs would have scored a TD if they had 10 more seconds...Furthermore..Shanny went for it on 4th and 3 on KC 12 down 13-10 4th quarter  and they scored a TD...yet he pusssiess out and kicks the FG..

     

           That kind of playcalling is why the Detroit Lions were watching the Super Bowl on TV and why Brandon Staley is unemployed.

     
    Jimmy_Cats
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    Posted: Feb. 12, 2024 - 8:18 PM ET #35

    According to the analytics, with the new rules, you should receive the ball in OT.

    Reply

    According to the analytics, with the new rules, you should receive the ball in OT.

     
    davemsh
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    Posted: Feb. 12, 2024 - 8:42 PM ET #36

    Quote Originally Posted by Jimmy_Cats:

    According to the analytics, with the new rules, you should receive the ball in OT.

     

    Yes is certain spots...But with Maholmes and that D on the other side..u defer.....Look at the 49ers 2 TD's...It took a trick plays to score the 1st TD and then they had to go for it on 4th down..by no means was it easy to score a TD..

    Mayweather bet 450000 on
    Reply

    Quote Originally Posted by Jimmy_Cats:

    According to the analytics, with the new rules, you should receive the ball in OT.

     

    Yes is certain spots...But with Maholmes and that D on the other side..u defer.....Look at the 49ers 2 TD's...It took a trick plays to score the 1st TD and then they had to go for it on 4th down..by no means was it easy to score a TD..

     
    nfl_brosuf
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    Posted: Feb. 12, 2024 - 8:57 PM ET #37

    What not mentioning is in ot, by defer, your defense can get a pick or fumble or stop and you get the ball for the FG win.  If they score, you still can get the ball to match.  If they get TD, you can get TD n 2 points. 

    Reverse the role.  KC gets FG, whiners getting a TD last to win. 

     

    X_____________________________
    Reply

    What not mentioning is in ot, by defer, your defense can get a pick or fumble or stop and you get the ball for the FG win.  If they score, you still can get the ball to match.  If they get TD, you can get TD n 2 points. 

    Reverse the role.  KC gets FG, whiners getting a TD last to win. 

     

     
    Ufo2112
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    Posted: Feb. 13, 2024 - 10:34 AM ET #38

    Yea, and if Shanahan goes for it and they fail and KC drives in to field goal range,  Shanahan is facing 10 times more criticism then Campbell was. No NFL coach would have gone for it there. Maybe Campbell and we see how that blew up in his face in the NFC championship. 

    Reply

    Yea, and if Shanahan goes for it and they fail and KC drives in to field goal range,  Shanahan is facing 10 times more criticism then Campbell was. No NFL coach would have gone for it there. Maybe Campbell and we see how that blew up in his face in the NFC championship. 

     
    Killrus420
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    Posted: Feb. 13, 2024 - 10:40 AM ET #39

    I guess I'm in the minority in agreeing that you take the points.  I get that you need to stop mahomes but I would rather try and hold him to a field goal compared to a TD.  KC was not obligated to get a TD.  If you go for it on 4th and give the ball to them they just need to get to fg range where their kicker broke the record earlier in the game.

    Reply

    I guess I'm in the minority in agreeing that you take the points.  I get that you need to stop mahomes but I would rather try and hold him to a field goal compared to a TD.  KC was not obligated to get a TD.  If you go for it on 4th and give the ball to them they just need to get to fg range where their kicker broke the record earlier in the game.

     
    nfl_brosuf
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    Posted: Feb. 13, 2024 - 11:36 AM ET #40

    Quote Originally Posted by Ufo2112:

    Yea, and if Shanahan goes for it and they fail and KC drives in to field goal range,  Shanahan is facing 10 times more criticism then Campbell was. No NFL coach would have gone for it there. Maybe Campbell and we see how that blew up in his face in the NFC championship.

    Not 10 times the criticism.  Only 1x n that's only you.  

    Shanahan can at least say that he's playing to win and no chicken scratch getting a FG n expecting his gassed out defense to stop mahomie to also get a FG.  

    Look, he took the FG n his defense still needs to make a stop.  If he doesn't make it, his defense still needs to make a stop.  Both scenarios, going on 4th has a more favourable outcome.  KC did a 4th on the last drive n was favorable.  It's a risk.  KC took the risk as well.  To say them whiners can come short on 4th is the same risk as saying KC coming up short on their 4th.  The difference is if KC don't make it, they lose the game.  If them whiners don't make it, defense up n the game still goes on.  an_cheers

    X_____________________________
    Reply

    Quote Originally Posted by Ufo2112:

    Yea, and if Shanahan goes for it and they fail and KC drives in to field goal range,  Shanahan is facing 10 times more criticism then Campbell was. No NFL coach would have gone for it there. Maybe Campbell and we see how that blew up in his face in the NFC championship.

    Not 10 times the criticism.  Only 1x n that's only you.  

    Shanahan can at least say that he's playing to win and no chicken scratch getting a FG n expecting his gassed out defense to stop mahomie to also get a FG.  

    Look, he took the FG n his defense still needs to make a stop.  If he doesn't make it, his defense still needs to make a stop.  Both scenarios, going on 4th has a more favourable outcome.  KC did a 4th on the last drive n was favorable.  It's a risk.  KC took the risk as well.  To say them whiners can come short on 4th is the same risk as saying KC coming up short on their 4th.  The difference is if KC don't make it, they lose the game.  If them whiners don't make it, defense up n the game still goes on.  an_cheers

     
    Ufo2112
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    Posted: Feb. 13, 2024 - 12:58 PM ET #41

    @nfl_brosuf

     Give me a break. KC's fourth down was 4th and less then a yard. Huge difference 

    Reply

    @nfl_brosuf

     Give me a break. KC's fourth down was 4th and less then a yard. Huge difference 

     
    lookingtowin
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    Posted: Feb. 13, 2024 - 1:24 PM ET #42

    @ davemsh POST # 6 Shanny admitted along with a lot of his players they didn't know the OT rules go figure. You always, always, always play defense first in OT less pressure on your defense especially with Mahomes on the other side. When SF said they wanted the ball first I said to myself just give Mahomes the Vince Lombardi. I would imagine Shanny and John Lynch will be having a little meeting on not KNOWING THE RULES OF OT.
    Reply
    @ davemsh POST # 6 Shanny admitted along with a lot of his players they didn't know the OT rules go figure. You always, always, always play defense first in OT less pressure on your defense especially with Mahomes on the other side. When SF said they wanted the ball first I said to myself just give Mahomes the Vince Lombardi. I would imagine Shanny and John Lynch will be having a little meeting on not KNOWING THE RULES OF OT.
     
    Rowdie22
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    Posted: Feb. 13, 2024 - 1:28 PM ET #43

    I agree they need to kick it.   

    Reply

    I agree they need to kick it.   

     
    nfl_brosuf
    nfl_brosuf
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    Posted: Feb. 13, 2024 - 1:41 PM ET #44

    Quote Originally Posted by Ufo2112:

    @nfl_brosuf  Give me a break. KC's fourth down was 4th and less then a yard. Huge difference

    If it was the 2nd possession, 4th and long goal, you think whiners gonna go for it?  

    X_____________________________
    Reply

    Quote Originally Posted by Ufo2112:

    @nfl_brosuf  Give me a break. KC's fourth down was 4th and less then a yard. Huge difference

    If it was the 2nd possession, 4th and long goal, you think whiners gonna go for it?  

     
    Indydog
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    Posted: Feb. 13, 2024 - 6:15 PM ET #45

    @davemsh

     I didn't read all the replies, but I can promise you that if They go on 4th and don't get it and then KC goes down and kicks winning fg... all the same people would be bbq'ing him for not kicking the fg.  

    Reply

    @davemsh

     I didn't read all the replies, but I can promise you that if They go on 4th and don't get it and then KC goes down and kicks winning fg... all the same people would be bbq'ing him for not kicking the fg.  

     
    Newkid92
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    Posted: Feb. 13, 2024 - 7:03 PM ET #46

    all or nothing he chose nothing 

    Reply

    all or nothing he chose nothing 

     
    nfl_brosuf
    nfl_brosuf
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    Posted: Feb. 13, 2024 - 8:30 PM ET #47

    Quote Originally Posted by Indydog:

    @davemsh  I didn't read all the replies, but I can promise you that if They go on 4th and don't get it and then KC goes down and kicks winning fg... all the same people would be bbq'ing him for not kicking the fg.

     

    No they will not roast him.  Here's why. 

    Do you play video poker?  You get some random hand and you hold cards n you get new sets of cards.  If you see the potential to hit a royal flush, you go with that.  You don't cut short of having an opportunity to hit the highest point possible.  

    Even if miss the 4th.  Who to say the defense can not make a stop?  Taking a FG there still leaves you vulnerable to even lose as we have seen.  Kyle said he took the ball first because his defense was gassed.  Well, getting FG and putting a gassed defense out there is the same chit.  From the way the game is played, mostly FG trading, he thought in ot, FG would be traded as well.  He just don't know mahomie.  Funny part is his gm stuck by him with his decision.  Go figures.  If the GM goes, the coach goes with him but that's not going to happen.  The whiners fans still loves them all.  Who knows how long again but they will be playing with a new chip on their shoulders.  I hope whiners vs someone else on the afc side n not mahomie cuz it'll be nightmare all over again. 

    X_____________________________
    Reply

    Quote Originally Posted by Indydog:

    @davemsh  I didn't read all the replies, but I can promise you that if They go on 4th and don't get it and then KC goes down and kicks winning fg... all the same people would be bbq'ing him for not kicking the fg.

     

    No they will not roast him.  Here's why. 

    Do you play video poker?  You get some random hand and you hold cards n you get new sets of cards.  If you see the potential to hit a royal flush, you go with that.  You don't cut short of having an opportunity to hit the highest point possible.  

    Even if miss the 4th.  Who to say the defense can not make a stop?  Taking a FG there still leaves you vulnerable to even lose as we have seen.  Kyle said he took the ball first because his defense was gassed.  Well, getting FG and putting a gassed defense out there is the same chit.  From the way the game is played, mostly FG trading, he thought in ot, FG would be traded as well.  He just don't know mahomie.  Funny part is his gm stuck by him with his decision.  Go figures.  If the GM goes, the coach goes with him but that's not going to happen.  The whiners fans still loves them all.  Who knows how long again but they will be playing with a new chip on their shoulders.  I hope whiners vs someone else on the afc side n not mahomie cuz it'll be nightmare all over again. 

     
    ABLP0609
    ABLP0609
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    Posted: Feb. 13, 2024 - 8:35 PM ET #48

    @davemsh

     It was a tough one . If they don’t get it KC just need a FG. But then LC probably won’t go for it on every 4th down. You got a great point .  They should have ran on 3rd then go for it on 4th . IMO 

    Reply

    @davemsh

     It was a tough one . If they don’t get it KC just need a FG. But then LC probably won’t go for it on every 4th down. You got a great point .  They should have ran on 3rd then go for it on 4th . IMO 

     
    Indydog
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    Posted: Feb. 13, 2024 - 8:40 PM ET #49

    @nfl_brosuf

     I respect your opinion, I just think there are valid points for both sides of the argument. I thought Kyle and Purdy both exceeded my expectations for the game and feel lucky to have been on the right side of this game. peace_5

    Reply

    @nfl_brosuf

     I respect your opinion, I just think there are valid points for both sides of the argument. I thought Kyle and Purdy both exceeded my expectations for the game and feel lucky to have been on the right side of this game. peace_5

     
     
    Mangowoman
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    Posted: Feb. 13, 2024 - 9:09 PM ET #50

    Quote Originally Posted by davemsh:

    Also a big Fak Up was winning the coin toss and taking the ball 1st? Why? If u take the ball 1st u have go for the TD if get that deep....U ALWAYS play defense 1st and even better u will get the ball not matter if the cheifs score a TD 1st...Bozo take the ball 1st..Does he not know the SB OT rules?

     https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/39519961/49ers-kyle-shanahan-asked-staff-review-ot-rules-players

    Reply

    Quote Originally Posted by davemsh:

    Also a big Fak Up was winning the coin toss and taking the ball 1st? Why? If u take the ball 1st u have go for the TD if get that deep....U ALWAYS play defense 1st and even better u will get the ball not matter if the cheifs score a TD 1st...Bozo take the ball 1st..Does he not know the SB OT rules?

     https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/39519961/49ers-kyle-shanahan-asked-staff-review-ot-rules-players

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