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63-0-2 ATS trend for Conference Championship games

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Prospect
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Posted: #1
Since 1970, in Conference Championship games where the line is less than 10 points, the winning team is a perfect 63-0-2 against the spread.

So based on this trend for Sunday's games, if you like the favorite don't worry about giving the points, and don't play the ML. But if you like the dog, you should play the ML instead of taking the points.
 
Overall teams that win in the conference finals are 68-6-2 ATS since 1970. All six non-covers were double digit favorites:

1983 Redskins -10.5 vs. 49ers 24-21W
1991 Bills -11 vs. Broncos 10-7W
1995 Steelers -12 vs. Colts 20-16W
1999 Rams -14 vs. Buccaneers 11-6W
2001 Rams -12 vs. Eagles 29-24W
2008 Patriots -15 vs. Chargers 21-12W
 
CONFIRMED!
 
 
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Posted: #2
interesting.
 
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Posted: #3
So if you truly believe this trend will continue why not load up on the Eagles -4 at -110 and the Arizona money line +175 and guarantee yourself a profit. 
 
Risk $11,000 to win $10,000 on Eagles -4 and
Risk $7,500 to win $13,125 on Arizona ML
 
You could guarantee yourself atleast a profit of $2125
...if this trend continues
 
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Posted: #4
Quote Originally Posted by nflpicker14:

So if you truly believe this trend will continue why not load up on the Eagles -4 at -110 and the Arizona money line +175 and guarantee yourself a profit. 
 
Risk $11,000 to win $10,000 on Eagles -4 and
Risk $7,500 to win $13,125 on Arizona ML
 
You could guarantee yourself atleast a profit of $2125
...if this trend continues

And, if the Eagles win by 3, 2, or 1, then you lost $18,500.  Risking $18,500 to potentially win $2125 doesnt seem like something that I would do. 

 
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Posted: #5
load it up!!  its unbeatable
 
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Posted: #6
Quote Originally Posted by jennado:

And, if the Eagles win by 3, 2, or 1, then you lost $18,500.  Risking $18,500 to potentially win $2125 doesnt seem like something that I would do. 

I wouldnt do it either...thats why I suggested for him to do it if he thought that this trend was going to continue.  I am not much of a trend guy anyway i cap each game at hand as its own separate entity.  I will be winning my $2000 on the Eagles -3

 
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Posted: #7
Chargers covered but lost against the Patriots last year.
 
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Posted: #8
Oops, less than 10 points, my mistake.
 
Captain
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Posted: #9
WOW .......yeah in that order
 
Prospect
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Posted: #10
Quote Originally Posted by Whatsalock:

Since 1970, in Conference Championship games where the line is less than 10 points, the winning team is a perfect 63-0-2 against the spread.

WOW, that is an incredible trend.  Love it.  Pit -6, Arizona ML.

 
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Posted: #11
And only one 6 seed has ever advanced to the Super Bowl, see where I'm going with this.....
 
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Posted: #12
Sounds about right. People way over analyze point spreads in the NFL way too much, when in fact the actual spread rarely affects the outcome of a bet. Just bet on the team you think is going to win and go from there. You like the fav, take them and dont worry about what they are laying. You like the dog, take em straight up!
 
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Posted: #13
Quote Originally Posted by nflpicker14:

I wouldnt do it either...thats why I suggested for him to do it if he thought that this trend was going to continue.  I am not much of a trend guy anyway i cap each game at hand as its own separate entity.  I will be winning my $2000 on the Eagles -3



so if you truly believe the eagles will win by more than 3 why dont u guarantee yourself more money and put $18,500 on eagles -3 at -130.. or -4 -110... its a LOCK!
 
MVP
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Posted: #14
Quote Originally Posted by nflpicker14:

So if you truly believe this trend will continue why not load up on the Eagles -4 at -110 and the Arizona money line +175 and guarantee yourself a profit. 
 
Risk $11,000 to win $10,000 on Eagles -4 and
Risk $7,500 to win $13,125 on Arizona ML
 
You could guarantee yourself atleast a profit of $2125
...if this trend continues


Wait, what if the game end with a tie?
Mc-tie is playing this game
The first and greatest victory is to conquer self
 
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Posted: #15

Quote Originally Posted by gambling-devil:



Wait, what if the game end with a tie?
Mc-tie is playing this game

I found a +10,000 line on the outcome being a tie.  I'm going to be rich!

 
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Posted: #16
Quote Originally Posted by 3rd_and_Long:

And only one 6 seed has ever advanced to the Super Bowl, see where I'm going with this.....


How many 9-7 division winners have advanced to the super bowl? 
 
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Posted: #17
Home team under dogs in conference championship games are 1-4-1 ats and 1-5 su.
 
 
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Posted: #18
Quote Originally Posted by Whatsalock:

Since 1970, in Conference Championship games where the line is less than 10 points, the winning team is a perfect 63-0-2 against the spread.
 
Whatsalock, do you have the number for all games (regular or regular and post season)? 
 
Or phrased differently, for all NFL games since 1970 (or another sample size), what percentage of 10 point (or less) favorites win but DON'T cover?
 
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