A Box Score Stat that predicts the winner after the end of the first quarter

Something I've tracked for years and use occasionally. If a team scores a TD in the 1st quarter and "wins" the quarter, they win the game 77% of the time. I've back tracked it 10 years. This week, so far, it went 9-0. When I bet live, I parlay a few of them and have hit consistently. Hard to line them up all the time, but now that the later games are the same time, you could do it. Some games you'll be eating a lot of juice.

*Correction, the stat was 8-0 this week so far. I thought the Broncos kicked two FG's but they scored a TD and missed the XP, so the Raiders win doesn't count in the stat as the score should have been tied 7-7. I mean, I guess it could be counted since the Raiders "won" the 1 quarter, but I mean technically it would have been tied.  

Nice find.  Good luck.

LOVE IT.....kudos

titans won 1st qtr lost game.  77% of the time? seems it would be well known

Does the 77% winning percentage apply to just the 1st quarter team winning the game or does this apply to that team covering ATS?

@jtoler

 He said score touchdown and win 1st quarter.Titans did not score a touchdown they kick two field goals 

nice work...got a question in this scenario.....what if the bills are winning 10-7 at the end of the 1q tonight, does that qualify as a play for the bills or is it a no play because the  Jets have scored a TD as well...thanks.

Bro ... Read what he wrote ... He said if a team scores a touchdown, and wins the first 1/4 ...

So if the Bills score a TD in the first 1/4 and are leading 10 - 7 at the end of the first 1/4, then yes, its obviously a play ... 

@race444

 Interesting  

@sydneys-best

 thanks...i just wanted to make sure i was understanding it properly....appreciate the explanation

Titans didn’t score a TD in the first quarter. Doesn’t count.

i have not checked covering the spread. Might be a way to do it using SDQL, but I didn’t check.

@jtoler

 Not when the juice eats you up after a few losses. Need to win around 80-85% of the time to make money.

Sorry if it’s confusing guys. As long as team wins quarter one and scores a TD, they will win the game 77% if the time.

If a team is a heavy favorite and they go up 7-0 or 10-0 or something, the juice is gonna be insane. If you only play less juiced ones, you’re not gonna experience that 77% though. So gotta parlay to bring that favorite down. 

Ideal would be a home team that’s a pregame 3 point favorite (so basically a pick ‘em) that scores a TD in the first quarter and wins the first quarter but the opposing team is driving in their territory. That would be minimal juice.

You can get even odds if you parlay two or more. Yesterday you would have cleared easy as it went 8-0.

77%?? I looked at the last three years where a team did score a TD in the first quarter and led the game (won the quarter)  

2020-2021 season 125-71 (71%)

2021-2022 season 125-46 (73%)

2022-2023 season 100-58 (63%)

Total for those three 350-175 (67%)

It would have to be huge in the years prior to get to 77% and the win rate is nice, but not sure it's 77%. Thanks for the info regardless

@jpot34

 a more conservative approach would be to wait until the later quarters hoping the other team ties it up or leads.  Then I would assume to hit it then, granted if you're not gunshy after being down.

@wmi799

 I did it manually on ESPN going back 10 years. I had 76.53%

@race444

 All good. I just looked at the last three

This stat went 2-1 this morning. I parlayed Colts/Ravens for even money. Was trying to get the bears in there too but they finished the quarter way early and Buccs were driving in the red zone when Colts/Ravens got to 2nd quarter. Good thing I didn't cause they lost, they actually had a chance to drive and win it though.

would have to agree. Not discounting the win percentage. But if parlays are being used you are at the mercy of well everything. Love this stat and really like that the O.P. Is thinking outside of the box!

That maddness night not work for prime time tht is why 77%....he gave ya the formula the rest is for ya to figure it out...maybe he missing some...ya fill the gab....its help one reach one....ya seem to just come here for free pick.....

....trust me no1 know everything..we just doin out best to be the best....crack the higher ups....bla bla bla

Went 10-1 this week

Went 5-3 last week