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A case for betting the Over

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Prospect
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Posted: #1
During the playoffs:
Carolina scored 31 vs the #2 Seattle defense
Carolina scored 49 vs the #5 Arizona defense

During the last game of the regular season:
Carolina scored 38 vs the #10 Buccaneers defense.

Manning has played two full games of late. Both were in the playoffs.
Denver scored 23 vs the #9 Patriots defense
Denver scored 20 vs the #21 Steelers defense

During the last game of the regular season:
Denver scored 27 vs the #20 Chargers defense when Manning came off the bench.

Carolina has the #6 defense:
vs a Denver offense that ranks #19 on offense during the regular season and #8 vs 12 teams during the playoffs.

Average Points Scored:
Panthers Regular Season              31.3
Panthers Playoffs                          40.0

Broncos Regular Season              22.2
Broncos Playoffs                          21.5

Why is the O/U 45?
The total has not been less than 45 since 2004. In that game the Total was 37.5. The game was New England vs Carolina in Super Bowl XXXVII
The Final was Patriots 32 Carolina 29

More to the point: During the last 15 Super Bowls.
The last three Super Bowls have posted O/U of 47.5, 47.5 and 48. All three have gone OVER by 28-24,
43-8 and 34-31. Average score of 55 points per game.

The prior 12 Super Bowls found players cashing on all 12 Super Bowls if they took the Over or the Under based on the closing total of MORE or LESS than 46 points.

The Under cashed all seven times when the closing totals were 46.5 or MORE.
In order, the O/U for each game was 53, 57, 55, 47, 47 46.5, and 53.
The seven final scores were 21-17, 31-17, 17-14, 29-17, 21-10, 24-21 and 20-17. Average score of 39.4 points scored per game equals 19.8 points per game LOWER than the average Closing Total of 51.2 points per game.

The Over cashed all five times when the closing totals were 46.0 or LESS.
In order, the O/U for each game was 45, 46, 37.5, 44 and 33.
The five final scores were 31-25, 27-23, 32-29, 48-21 and 34-7. Average score of 55.4 points per game equals 14.3 points per game HIGHER than the average Closing Total of 41.1 points per game.
 
Legend
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Posted: #2
A couple days ago, i heard Eli Manning was flying from Hawaii after the Pro Bowl to join Peyton in San Francisco. Manning and the G-men tossed 28 pts in the 2nd half against Panthers on Dec. 20, of last year. Perhaps, Eli has something to share with his brother in this game.  

Good luck!  
 
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Posted: #3
Panthers had a 35-7 lead in the third quarter at New York. Something similar happened vs Seattle in the playoffs.
 
Prospect
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Posted: #4
I have 4 dimes on the over 45. Looking to put more on the Over 44.5.

Can someone please tell me the Over is a bad bet?
And why?

Thanks
 
Prospect
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Posted: #5
it's not keneke, it's the only totals bet that makes any sense to me. There are just way too many FAST playmakers on all four sides of the ball in this game. A recipe for at least 50. I realize I am in the vast minority on the total here too, something that makes me very happy.
 
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Posted: #6
Quote Originally Posted by EndTheFed:

it's not keneke, it's the only totals bet that makes any sense to me. There are just way too many FAST playmakers on all four sides of the ball in this game. A recipe for at least 50. I realize I am in the vast minority on the total here too, something that makes me very happy.


My first play was 2,500 on Carolina -4.5. But -5.5 is not an option.
I agree that 50 is probable due to a pick six or whatever as you suggested.
 
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Posted: #7
 
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Posted: #8
Carolina -4.5 or -5.5 almost has no diff statistically.  
 
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Posted: #9
I'm pretty sure a lot of those points were defensive.


I didnt watch all of those games but I bet you carolina didnt score 31 legitimately on seattle in one half
 
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Posted: #10
Quote Originally Posted by mgmprofits:

I'm pretty sure a lot of those points were defensive.


I didnt watch all of those games but I bet you carolina didnt score 31 legitimately on seattle in one half

like saying - Manning did not win that Championship game - Brady lost that game - because Goodell " want it that way " 

 
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Posted: #11
Line is 44 now.. that is hella low.. last time total was thing low was Packers Steelers

I think Denver over 19.5 has some value
 
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Posted: #12
Quote Originally Posted by 98ITR:

Line is 44 now.. that is hella low.. last time total was thing low was Packers Steelers

I think Denver over 19.5 has some value


Carolina -6 and O/U 44 will get you a Denver Total of 19.0
 
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Posted: #13
Quote Originally Posted by Keneke2008:

During the playoffs:
Carolina scored 31 vs the #2 Seattle defense
Carolina scored 49 vs the #5 Arizona defense

During the last game of the regular season:
Carolina scored 38 vs the #10 Buccaneers defense.

Manning has played two full games of late. Both were in the playoffs.
Denver scored 23 vs the #9 Patriots defense
Denver scored 20 vs the #21 Steelers defense

During the last game of the regular season:
Denver scored 27 vs the #20 Chargers defense when Manning came off the bench.

Carolina has the #6 defense:
vs a Denver offense that ranks #19 on offense during the regular season and #8 vs 12 teams during the playoffs.

Average Points Scored:
Panthers Regular Season              31.3
Panthers Playoffs                          40.0

Broncos Regular Season              22.2
Broncos Playoffs                          21.5

Why is the O/U 45?
The total has not been less than 45 since 2004. In that game the Total was 37.5. The game was New England vs Carolina in Super Bowl XXXVII
The Final was Patriots 32 Carolina 29

More to the point: During the last 15 Super Bowls.
The last three Super Bowls have posted O/U of 47.5, 47.5 and 48. All three have gone OVER by 28-24,
43-8 and 34-31. Average score of 55 points per game.

The prior 12 Super Bowls found players cashing on all 12 Super Bowls if they took the Over or the Under based on the closing total of MORE or LESS than 46 points.

The Under cashed all seven times when the closing totals were 46.5 or MORE.
In order, the O/U for each game was 53, 57, 55, 47, 47 46.5, and 53.
The seven final scores were 21-17, 31-17, 17-14, 29-17, 21-10, 24-21 and 20-17. Average score of 39.4 points scored per game equals 19.8 points per game LOWER than the average Closing Total of 51.2 points per game.

The Over cashed all five times when the closing totals were 46.0 or LESS.
In order, the O/U for each game was 45, 46, 37.5, 44 and 33.
The five final scores were 31-25, 27-23, 32-29, 48-21 and 34-7. Average score of 55.4 points per game equals 14.3 points per game HIGHER than the average Closing Total of 41.1 points per game.

Do those past super bowl games have anything to do with this particular one?

You should look at these 2 teams and what they bring to the field.
i.e.

time of possession
effective drive success rate
average starting field position
penalty's per game
pace or tempo


Then look at both teams defensive #'s. They are more important when deciding on a total than the teams offensive #'s. A good D will always fair well against a good O. Kind of like a good pitcher will always stop good hitting. 

One tidbit I like a lot for this game...

The Broncos are only the fourth team defense since 1970 to be #1 in yards per carry allowed and #1 in yards per pass allowed

And by the way those 2 games you mentioned Luke Kuechly had a pic 6 in each of em. Carson Palmer threw a bunch of 50/50 balls that turned into 4 int's. You can't give the Panther's offense COMPLETE credit for all the scoring.

GL on what you choose
 


 
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Posted: #14
Quote Originally Posted by Second2-Numbers:


like saying - Manning did not win that Championship game - Brady lost that game - because Goodell " want it that way " 


You're right...my comment was kind of pointless. Points are points. No matter what way you look at it, you have to factor them in. I like the Over here too, i think it goes over 50

But to say that is in the minority...I don't believe so. I believe the public will be all over the OVER.

Because Carolina games usually go over.

According to my capping though, UNDER is the right pick here, Carolina has had 3 straight Over games, and I don't believe they've ever had 4 straight. I'd have to double check, but Under is the best bet according to pattern

That is why I am not touching it. Because my gut feeling is contradiction the patterns I found when capping. In that case, I can't come up with any solid play that i feel 100% good about.

And why miss out on the easy money with Denver and ruin a parlay with a risky O/U play.

As for 5.5, it's the same as 4.5 as the game won't end in 5 points.

Carolina either wins by 1, 2, 3, or 4(likely 3 or less) pts or Denver wins SU....

That's my prediction
 
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Posted: #15
Two great Defenses is why the O/U is dropping.

A Pick Six or kickoff/punt return will bode well for the Over.
 
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Posted: #16
Quote Originally Posted by undermysac:


Do those past super bowl games have anything to do with this particular one?

You should look at these 2 teams and what they bring to the field.
i.e.

time of possession
effective drive success rate
average starting field position
penalty's per game
pace or tempo


Then look at both teams defensive #'s. They are more important when deciding on a total than the teams offensive #'s. A good D will always fair well against a good O. Kind of like a good pitcher will always stop good hitting. 

One tidbit I like a lot for this game...

The Broncos are only the fourth team defense since 1970 to be #1 in yards per carry allowed and #1 in yards per pass allowed

And by the way those 2 games you mentioned Luke Kuechly had a pic 6 in each of em. Carson Palmer threw a bunch of 50/50 balls that turned into 4 int's. You can't give the Panther's offense COMPLETE credit for all the scoring.

GL on what you choose
 




Not trying to break down this game. Just the history of the O/U during previous Super Bowls.

But if you must, here goes....

Carolina has scored 31 and 49 points in two playoffs games and is 19-6 to the over when facing a team with a winning record since the arrival of Ron Rivera, including 9-0 to the OVER the past two seasons. Even though the Panthers dominated the first half, they surrendered 403 yards and 24 points to Seattle, so they are susceptible.
 
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Posted: #17
additional food for thought on OVER

The Over is 20-7-1 in Caro's last 28 versus a team with a winning record, and they have gone over the total in four straight playoff games. 

 
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Posted: #18
Give me the Over please
 
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Posted: #19
im with u guys. i think the case is being made


and if its 24-20 its a push!
 
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Posted: #20
Quote Originally Posted by Keneke2008:

I have 4 dimes on the over 45. Looking to put more on the Over 44.5.

Can someone please tell me the Over is a bad bet?
And why?

Thanks



I think it's a bad bet.

1) The $ is on the over, and the line is dropping.
2) Denver will win this game, and their D will shine.
3) Denver will not score a lot of point, bit still win.

Just my humble opinion.
FIND JESUS / GO DAWGS / NOTHING IS WHAT IT APPEARS
 
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Posted: #21
dude you know carolina is going to win if they put out and put up numbers like they normally do
 
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Posted: #22
Quote Originally Posted by merrytimes:

dude you know carolina is going to win if they put out and put up numbers like they normally do



If you're talking to me, you will be surprised after watching Denver's D tomorrow. I'm on Den. + da pts.
FIND JESUS / GO DAWGS / NOTHING IS WHAT IT APPEARS
 
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Posted: #23
very clear under... despite the great case work 
 
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Posted: #24
Well, great write-up. However...

These stats are a tad biased. You could just as easily post both teams points allowed. What Denver allowed to a top NE offense, and what Carolina allowed to a top AZ offense. Which would use your same logic to create a case for the under.
 
 
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Posted: #25
Because its in sunny California! Good football weather. A few defensive miscues either due to nerves and the two week layoff and all the media day stuff and other SB distractions . 

Game could very well flirt with the low to high 40's. O/U will be very close.... GL whatever you choose 
Sip on that plus money honey!
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