A total worth some consideration

BUFF@NYJ U46(-110)

What am I missing here, other than Buffalo is the best team in the nfl and blows teams out? The perception is not conducive to what the #'s are showing me. Blow outs don't just mean that games are a boat race, the Bills shut teams down with their defense. 

The Bills games have gone 1-6 in going over the total of 46 this year, with an average score of 43.

The Jets games have gone 2-6 in going over the total of 46 this year, with an average score of 41.87.

An interesting caveat in the 2 games that did soar over for the Jets: Week 2 vs Cleveland the total hit 61 in that miracle Joe Flacco game where 30 pts were scored in the 4th quarter. Cleveland is ranked #27 per dvoa on defense. Week 5 the total hit 57 vs Miami who is #25. Zach Wilson didn't have any td passes, and the Jets scored 5 td's via the run.

The Bills are #4 on defense, and the Jets are #8, both per dvoa.

Both these teams hang their hat on defense, no matter what you think of the Bills and Josh Allen, they are great no doubt. But how much can one team score vs a stout D who is also a division rival, and otr?

Are we worried about the Jets without Breece Hall and a well below average qb in Zach Wilson? No chance. On top of that, Flacco has been demoted to 3rd string for some reason, leaving only Mike White behind Wilson.

If we look at history, since 2019 in 6 games, the final scores of both teams went like this:

37, 52, 28, 44, 19, 33

Bills Safety Jordan Poyer is out, and Jets WR Corey Davis.

@undermysac

 Buff 31-10. 

27-13 

OVERmysac. Blowout city! This is the weakest 5-3 record i've seen in a long time. Robert Saleh Jets finish AT BEST 7-9 this year...

A blowout means it goes over? Id say he wouldnt mind a blowout and have the bills be up something like 27-10 and just pound the ball on the ground and make first downs while chewing up clock and coast to victory with no urgency to score, but if they did score in that scenario, hed still win, or if the bills punt it away late in that situation and escort the jets to the endzone with prevent D, hed still hed win as well, or maybe the blowout is larger, 35-7, 38-3,41-0, all scenarios in which the under still cashes... does it mean it goes under? No, but doesnt mean it goes over either, and majority of blowouts go under with only 1 team actually trying hard to score in the ladder stages of 2nd half in a blowout 

Good stuff & probably the right choice. 

I like it.  

42-17 BLOWOUT

I love this pick, for many of the reasons you pointed out.  I bet the under on this game early in the week.  It was the first game I bet.  Good luck to us! 

@LVTruck

Following 

@undermysac

I don’t do Totals but excellent analysis mah man

Post#1  

It very well could be, I've been wrong before in the past, and will be wrong many times in the future. 

Fwiw, considering the line movement on the spread, sharps have to be on the Jets here imo. The dog and the under usually coincide.

Also, I did point out that the Bills blow out teams, and with regularity. But didn't say that they will today. I don't know, maybe the Jets give her hell? Or the Jets get beaten like the Texans on TNF. They never had a chance but covered. 

Good Luck everyone 

 Good luck, my man on the under.

I’m still checking some numbers on this game.

Thanks for sharing Big Nuts

Check out epa per play last 3 games, you should like what you see.

it is on my card but not my favorite total good luck today

@undermysac

 BOL!!…

** NOT SURE ABOUT UNDER **!!..

GET’EM!! … BOTH WILL SCORE A LOT!! 

@undermysac

 This is such a LeagueCapper post

What does that mean?

I used to write a lot here, not anymore. People want only winners, but any play can lose.

@undermysac

 Thanks for posting...why even reply to stupid comments...GL today...

GL i thought i was only one on it

Hows does this HELP the forum??

Sac put himself out there and wrote what HE believes will happen.  He's NOT selling his pick, just giving the information he put together.  Instead of engaging him in your thoughts about his choice, you put him down with that LC comment.

Basically, your a DOUCHE.  Why don't you come back in here and prove you are not.