This 3* play from Dr. John is on New Orleans +3.5, which is fairly uncommon as most of my picks fall within the 1-2* range. Earlier in the week this number was pushed down to +3, and while I’m not sure we see this again before kickoff, 3.5 is clearly inflated and a number I’m very comfortable with.
I’m currently 2-0 on the picks I have posted on Covers, 1 of which (MNF) I did a write up for and my model accurately predicted the total to within 0.8 of the final score (here). For Thursday’s game, the model actually likes New Orleans (by ~1.9 pts), so getting plus points in this spot as well as the hook is really a great bargain.
After going back and watching the ATL WAS tape from Sunday, a few things stood out for me – one of which was how poorly Garçon played in this game and the other was how much time Cousins had on a number of key downs but was unable to make the throws; that won’t be the case with Drew Brees under center. Granted, New Orleans’ pass protection has been much worse than Washington’s up to this point, but I anticipate both Evans and Armstead to suit up for this one, which will be key in allowing Brees enough time to connect with targets (Peat was clearly their weakest link blocking vs the Eagles).
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