Posted:
#1
Ahoy all. As I have already locked in my bets this AM, I will share a moderate-strong play for today. Yesterday's 2* were Skins +7.5 and Niners +7 - I also placed an additional 1* bet on SF +9.5 at halftime (which I noted and recommended in another thread).
Tonight's play does not quite qualify as a 2*, though my model predicts that tonight's Total will fall UNDER 46 (~ 44.8); most of these 46's have been gobbled up but as public money continues to come in on the OVER, these may start to show up again at certain books.
Tonight's game should be a bit more of a dogfight than people expect; The steelers (4th rated, non-adjusted) sack defense should test this inexperienced O line of SD (much more so than a weak Browns pass rush did last week). Nonetheless, I expect Allen & role players (Gates, Woodhead, etc.) to make notable contributions.
On the other side, we have a strong Pittsburgh team who, despite a long week for Vick & Brown to play pitch and catch, still will have Michael Vick largely in a game manager type role. Expect him to dial up a few more shots than perhaps last week, though this offense will still be hugely reliant on Bell.
I do have some weak indicators of value with PIT +4 in this one; though some sources fairly-intimately familiar with Vick have stated that he does not look like he has in years past. The adjustment from the April look ahead line of SD -1 to SD -3.5 (several well known handicappers went on the record stating that Ben to Vick is a 3.5 pt downgrade prior to last Thurs.) indicates that a slightly above average is expected from Vick for a cover. San Diego's defense is poor, but Vick is not in a position to truly punish them for this. We may very well see Crybaby Phillip by the end of tonight's game, but I personally will be laying off choosing sides in this one.
Recommendation: UNDER 46 w/ slight lean to PIT +4.
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