Hi all, new member here.. Six months ago I bet on TB to win the Super Bowl. It will pay $4500 but I expect KC to win. I put $1000 on GB last week to hedge my bet which thankfully was a loss.
What would you all do to hedge this bet and maximize your guaranteed return? I'm trying to avoid the money line and stick to alternative spreads, win margins, etc.
Since you hedged 1000 on the GB game, you effectively have a bet of 280 to win 3500 on TB ML.
Right now KC ML is -167 where I bet.
If you want to guarantee a win you could bet:
Bet 2365 on KC, if they win you get 1416.10 - 280 = 1136.10 profit. If TB wins you profit 1135.
If you want to win more on a KC win, bet more than 2365 on KC.
If you want to guarantee a win you can't bet any point spread that has KC favored, or you'll have a negative middle situation where you could lose both bets.
If you want to create a middle you have to use KC + points alt lines.
If you insist on alt line you could do KC +3.5 at -290:
Bet 2900 to win 1000 on KC +3.5. If TB wins by 4 or more you profit 600. If KC wins you profit 720. If TB wins by 1-3 points you profit 4500.
I grt why you want to hedge but did you make the bet with that in mind. You got 16-1 odds. So basically 8-1 for nfc title game win. You already bet 1k so now have 1380 at risk assuming you had standard vig. I just think you've diluted yourself a lot and maybe shouldn't have made this wager if you thought you'd hedge last week. My point of saying this is you are better off making these types of wagers at nfc title game wagers instead that way you don't lose your profits so much. Too late now and I dont blame you hedging. Just food for thought. I like hedging on futures when I know that to start like a super long shot and then they make playoffs and you find a way to hedge as you never believed they'd win it all. You're basically sitting on a 4-1 KC and 4-1 TB super bowl tickets. Would you have bet that that many months ago if you had to get both? Maybe, just saying you've coat yourself some $.
I didn't necessarily think the TB would be better than KC when I placed the bet. In fact, I didn't think they would be better than the Saints. I placed the bet in Biloxi which was Saints country so their odds were well below the national average. My next choice was TB and I knew I could hedge if they at least made the playoffs. Luckily they drew WFT so no need to hedge there. Not putting anything on the Saints was tough but an aging Brees and no T Hill that game ultimately swayed my decision to let it ride.
BTW, I also bet 70 that TB would win the NFC which pays $630. That took the sting out of the GB hedge.
One break I did not catch was an AFC team upsetting KC in the playoffs. TB vs CLE would have been a dream scenario, obviously.
One more thing. I also bet that the Rays would win the World Series on that trip. $100 at +2000. I never hedged against the Dodgers and it made me feel like a complete fool afterward. Just like KC, they were heavy favorites from the get-go and I was hoping they'd be upset earlier in the post-season.
Long story long....hedging the GB game felt right and parting with that money did not bother me. Not putting money on the better KC team will.
This is ridiculous. Dude is trying to hedge alternate lines but trying to give MORE points on the hedge, thereby increasing the chances that he gets middled.
I say ride it out. Betting $1000 on Green Bay was a mistake unless you really liked Green Bay to cover that game. You basically ate up half your hedge by doing that.
If you want to hedge, I say take a shot KC - 3 and hope you don't get middled. You can bet your original stake and let the rest ride. Or let it all ride if a $280 loss doesn't really bother you.
But if you start hedging halfway, you're looking at like a $280 bet for $1500 maybe. with the possibility of getting middled.
People always ask for help hedging for some reason. The last game is almost always a ML on an underdog. Makes it really expensive to hedge because the money lines are expensive.
I say do an even hedge or let it ride. If $1500 win means a lot to you, then even hedge.
paging vanzack..paging vanzack...attention please.
never hedge unless its a life changing amount of money or circumstances have significantly changed in the interim..i suppose its fair to say they have changed given that you feel chiefs should definitely win...in which case the very best,most prudent option seems to be what kempdunklister suggested-put 2365 on chiefs and be happy with the profit....or if feeling very strong about chiefs put a bit more on them so profit is more lop-sided in their favour.
please do not..i repeat DO NOT do this..you are just tempting fate to lose all bets with a close chiefs win..if you are willing to throw away money that way just dont hedge at all and hope for the best with your original bet.
Thanks for all the input guys. I ended up betting:
$1200 on KC (-3) to win $1000
$300 on KC (-7.5) to win $540
$125 in freeplay on KC (-10.5) to win $312.
Plus...
$400 in neutral prop bets, +100, +200, etc
$50 in longshot prop bets, +3000, +10000, +15000
Regarding the GB game... That was easy to hedge as GB absolutely was the better team and should have won easily. I have no regrets there.
I'm curious as to how you TB bettors feel KC could lose this game. Brady out-gunning or outrunning Mahomes? Nope. Hill/Kelce being shut down? Unlikely. Arians out-coaching Reid? Never.
Here is TB's only path to a victory: TWO touchdowns off of turnovers, no INT's from Brady, run the ball a lot, and be gifted multiple DEF pass interference calls against KC on 40+ yard plays.
What WILL happen: TB falls behind from the get-go, Arians abandons the run, calls for more and deeper passes. Interceptions ensue. A bomb will will finally connect late in the game to keep the KC margin of victory under 20.
yo...i cannot fathom why you would do this.now you can lose EVERY SINGLE BET that you have with a bit of pretty bad luck in a very tight chiefs win or 3 point push.you have a chance to GUARANTEE yourself money and are instead going to guarantee the possibility that you could not only lose your original "lottery ticket" bet but also other additional bets as well.each to their own but i cant make any sense of it whatsoever.
sounds like you are incredibly confident in a chiefs victory.i dont really know much about gridiron as a non-american but after observing patterns in superbowl betting for over a decade i can safely say that things very often dont turn out the way expected in cases where a gigantic majority of bettors are extremely confident in one side.not saying anything at all about this particular game,but thats just my observation.just seems wild and insane to me that in a 3 point spread game we got so many that are bullish to the max on either side,like to the point where they cannot see a path to victory for the team they are betting against.and i just witnessed this less than 2 weeks ago with the packers game also.an overwhelming majority basically 100% certain rodgers would win/cover.........any way i hope that you come out ahead in the end in some way.never wanna see anyone lose money in this silly little hobby of ours so best wishes..
Based on what I've read you are the worst hedger ever. Like you don't understand the basics of it at all, and it's not even a complicated concept.
The 1k bet on GB.... That's not a hedge. A hedge is when you guarantee a profit or at least breaking even. The only hedge you could make with your bet is if you bet KC ML in the SB. Not GB in the game before!
Now you are considering leaving yourself open to massive middling opportunities by laying TD with KC... Ffs.
You made the bet as a recreational gambler and got lucky to have it be live now at the last stage. You should never have started trying to now play like a professional gambler because you clearly arent in that category. Or you wouldn't have bet GB thinking it was a hedge (it was simply a bet you made and lost... No matter if TB wins or loses the SB you lost 1k on that game.) You basically opend yourself up to a middle on that last round as you stood to lose both bets if GB lost and TB lost the SB) and now you bout to open up a middle opportunity again.
Why would you do that? Well as I see it the whole reason you want to bet KC with these alt lines is because you stung yourself in the arse with that GB bet last week and that Loss made it so that a true hedge with KC ML this week doesn't leave you with as good a profit as it should have been so are trying to pump it up.
Just let it ride now man and stop trying to be clever. You're better off trying to be lucky.
You hedged LAST week too? Why make the initial bet? You cant start hedging 2 weeks out.
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