Lets first address the Weather and Travel: Winning three consecutive playoff games on the road is extremely difficult to accomplish. Only four teams have done so to reach the Super Bowl. Extensive travel usually catchs up to teams. It wil here. The Packers have four postseason wins outright in a row on their home turf. Though Aaron Rodgers lacks the playmakers that Tom Brady has, no QB is playing better currently, and at a MVP level. Rodgers manages to deliver to the lesser know players he has around him, play after play. While the cold will not affect Brady, Tampa is, still a warm-weather team.
The Buccaneers are getting a lot of credit for the Saints win, but a road game in a dome and road game at Lambeau Field in January are two different animals. Green Bay is more consistent on both ends of the football and has been the past two months. It has the best league's best QB in Aaron Rodgers. GB has a strong running game with the 3 headed monster, Jones, williams and Dillion as they dismantled the leagues #1 defense last week. GB now has a solid defense clicking on all cylinders with a pass rush to boot!. Defensively, the Pack has allowed an average of 16 points over the last four games. Green Bay has defeated three straight playoff teams by an average of 19.7 points, and is 10-3 ATS this season as a favorite of - 8 or lower. This line should be -5 solely on power ratings.
The Packers' offensive line is peaking at the right time. Against the Rams' elite defense, Green Bay averaged 5.2 yards per carry and Aaron Rodgers was not sacked. The Bucs have had a great year, but they aren't likely to be plus 4 in turnovers in the NFC title game as they enjoyed last week against the self destructing Saints.
The Bucs were able to turn three turnovers into short-field TDs in their upset of the Saints last week, but that doesn't seem repeatable against a Packers offense that's first in turnover percentage with a QB that has thrown just five picks all year. Do not forget 2 of those INT's were against the Buc's back in mid October which in the NFL is an eternity and the Packers were stll finding themselves.
With only 316 yards to its credit last week, the Bucs offense didn't really have the type of statistical game you'd expect from a 30-point showing. And that's bad news against a Packers defense that continues to play great, allowing only 244 yards against the Rams despite Jared Goff looking sharper than expected.
With a ton of respect for Brady and his career, one must Back the Pack here if you want the Cash! Lay the -3 here.
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