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Andarmac99

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Posted: #26
Quote Originally Posted by andarmac99This is the same stuff people thought about Seattle last year. It's just not true whatsoever. Seattle was #6 in the NFL in yards per play this season..New England was #12. Seattle averaged more yards per game than New England. Seattle was more efficient running it (#1 vs #24) AND passing (#6 vs #16). Football outsiders have the the #5 offense in the NFL ahead of New England at #6. To say they have an anemic offense is a joke when they are probably better than the Pats in that department.Will try to get discussion going this week.roastedpeanuts - I've seen the us against the world argument a lot. I disagree. They won't play better or be more motivated because everyone is against them. It's the Super Bowl. Both teams are going balls deep.[/Quote:


Care to clarify? Seattle was ranked #1 in rushing, they were ranked 27th in passing, which is their weakness if you ask me. This is looking at passing offense stats, not sure if you got yours from elsewhere
 
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Posted: #27
I've seen the us against the world argument a lot. I disagree. They won't play better or be more motivated because everyone is against them. It's the Super Bowl. Both teams are going balls deep. Quote from Andermarc


BINGO! Well said *handshake
What do you call an Eternal Optimist? An accordion with a beeper!
 
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Posted: #28
The read option = very very tough to defend. 
 
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Posted: #29
simply put - at halftime of the Patriots/Colts game the line was Seahawks -3 (-115)....and now they are catching a point?!?  This is the perfect buy low sell high....

The fact that there are people who start the read with "How could anyone bet Seatlle" or my "DID YOU WATCH LAST WEEKS GAME?".....really last week?  

I love teams coming off a crappy performance let alone on national tv to get value...Most of the junk about this team beat this team, who beat this team, so this team is better makes me laugh....there is a reason very few make money at this game....and us in the few have the many to thank!


Appreciate the thoughts Andramac and Glyde 
 
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Posted: #30
 
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Posted: #31
Quote Originally Posted by iwhiteyy:


Care to clarify? Seattle was ranked #1 in rushing, they were ranked 27th in passing, which is their weakness if you ask me. This is looking at passing offense stats, not sure if you got yours from elsewhere

Every time Seattle threw the ball this year they gained on average 7.3 yards. Every time New England threw it they gained 6.6 yards. Seattle was more efficient throwing the ball. Would their numbers be as good if they threw it as frequently as NE? I don't think anyone would agree with that, however they wouldn't drop off the earth and would still be very good. Wilson is very underrated as a passer.

Seattle does set up a lot of their pass offense with the run, but there is nothing to suggest the Hawks won't run on NE. This season the Pats played 9 games against teams in the top half of the league in rushing YPC (the 16 most efficient run offenses). Those teams averaged 135 rush yards per game and 4.7 YPC against New England. The bad news is those teams combined to average 4.5 YPC for the season, so they ran it better against NE than they did the rest of the league. Seattle is the best rushing offense in the league by a country mile...if other good run teams ran it better against NE than the rest of the league, what on earth is there to suggest that NE is going to be able to stop the best rushing offense in the league? Also worth noting - in those nine games against Top 16 rush offenses the Pats LOST the Time of Possession battle 7 of 9 times and by a average of over 5 minutes in the nine games. The Pats went 3-6 ATS in those nine games compared to 7-2 ATS against the rest of the league. Run it on NE, win TOP, keep Brady off the field and you will have success. Seattle can do that.

Few props:

Blount UNDER 60.5 rush yards

Don't think he comes close.


Edelman OVER 6.5 receptions

He's gone over this in 6 straight games and had double digit targets in each of them. He'll be in the slot away from Seattle's big corners and I think Brady throws to him a piss load.


Vereen OVER 2.5 rushing attempts

Just a hunch.


Will be playing Luke Willson OVER receptions as well when I can get it. Like Glyde said earlier, I think it's a good matchup for him and he'll find space in the middle as NE tries to contain the run upfrontand he'll be away from their corners on the edges. Pats also 3rd worst in the NFL in defending the TE according to FO.


 
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Posted: #32
^ Should add those rushing stats for NE opponents are minus QB kneel downs.
 
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Posted: #33
Great to see you post Andarmac99....Glyde / Andarmac .....good luck on Sunday!
 
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Posted: #34
 I've said several times in the last week that a team that can run the ball & stop the run will be in every game...........Seattle does both much better than NE............but people just brush it off. 

 Everyone has their opinion & no one can change it..........GL bro. 
 
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Posted: #35
Andy, I might tail u on the Blount under. Seeing the way NE abandoned running completely after the Ravens stuffed them, I can't see Blount getting 60+ in a game Seattle controls, a close game shootout, or a close game defensive game......only situation I can see him having a game is if the Pats jump up big early and hold a 2-3 TD lead whether it's 24-3 or 42-20 going into the fourth. As I'm on Seattle and feel confident, I don't see that happening, so good chances he does go under.

Edelman looks juicy too, but I'm looking to go easy on the props this year, so I'm probably gonna pass.

Good to see some of the old crew in here! GL to everyone! This should be a great game. Lol, I always call my boss a mush. At my job, we have a box pool that is 500 a box. Haha, he pulled a 2 and 5. And then his other box a 5 and 2. Math wizards....what the odds of that?? 10,000 to 1? Ahhh, I hope both teams get a safety and FG and its 5-5 early on.
 
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Posted: #36
I got cute and it cost me. Waiting on the Willson props because I didn't want to pay -115 and -125 on over 27.5 yards and over 2 receptions.

Now it's fu$king OVER 33.5 yards at -118 and OVER 3 receptions at -115.

SMH. Thought I found a soft line and didn't take advantage of it. Brutal.
 
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Posted: #37
2.5 rec not 2**+
 
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Posted: #38
Blount went from -115 to -122 too.

Christ almighty.
 
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Posted: #39
After having more time to cap this game I would like to ADD this:

A) I have not forgotten that teams who scored 40+ points in any round of the playoffs are 8-33 ATS in the next round

B) Public perception of last game is HUGE and many Pats backers forget how Brady and Co. had to rally from behind 3X to overcome the feisty Ravens in a tight contest

C) There are 4 KEY STATS that have seen a team own ALL 4 going into the SB 15 out of 48 times and those teams are 12-3 SU in the SB and Seattle owns ALL 4  stats. They are: 1) allows fewer points 2) averages more rushing yards 3) allowing fewer rushing yards 4) allowing fewer total yards

I also feel upon closer consideration that there will be a 
heavy dosage of tape review of the two Giants SB wins
over NE and that they will hold Brady and Co.to 20 
or less. SEA does not match up in a shootout nor will they engage in one.


SEA 23 NE 17
 
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Posted: #40

I have watched every Pats game this year.  They are a pass first team!!  Blount is a weapon but, the short passing game is much better.  Brady is deadly in the shotgun with 4 or 5 wideouts and an RB or FB blocking.  He has been successful this year due to better pass protection.  Seattle stats show only limited success hurrying or getting to the QB.

I fully believe that Gronk will occupy Kam Chancellor and/or some linebacker attention.  I highly doubt the Pats will look to test this secondary deep very often. 

I suspect we will see a ton of Danny Amendola, Julian Edelman, and Shane Vereen.  I also anticipate the Patriots in hurry up offense - looking to outscore Seattle.  Seattle is VERY rarely able to put up 28+ points. 

Seattle will counter with BEAST MODE and look to chew up the clock and keep Brady on the sidelines.  Seattle will be able to run on New England and will surpass the Pats in Time of Possesion.  My Prop bets will reflect above. 

Glyde - I believe Blount will be held in Check.....under Prop bet.

I favor Seattle slightly in a tight game.  Something like Seattle 23 - Pats 20.  If this game is played 10 times....Seattle wins 6 games and Patriots win 4 games roughly.  Should be a great Game.  Good luck guys!

 

 
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Posted: #41
Quote Originally Posted by Macwestie1:

I've seen the us against the world argument a lot. I disagree. They won't play better or be more motivated because everyone is against them. It's the Super Bowl. Both teams are going balls deep. Quote from Andermarc


BINGO! Well said *handshake


Ball licker 
 
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Posted: #42
Damn. Wanted Willson Over receptions but juice git too high for my liking. Just sticking with the Hawks and few props I have. 

Good luck everyone. Nice to see the famaliar faces with some great discussion points. 

Should be a great game.  
 
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Posted: #43
Another thing I keep seeing that cracks me up is "the Patriots have a much better passing game." 

Stop me if I'm wrong, but I think the Seahawks have a yard higher than NE in both yards per completion, and yards per attempt. Not to mention a QB that extends plays in and out of pocket always looking downfield first if he doesn't pull down and run it. 

Like Earth said, there's gotta be 3+ turnovers or some crazy ST scoring or some big blown referee calls against Seattle for NE to win this one. 
 
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Posted: #44
Quote Originally Posted by andarmac99:

Damn. Wanted Willson Over receptions but juice git too high for my liking. Just sticking with the Hawks and few props I have. 

Good luck everyone. Nice to see the famaliar faces with some great discussion points. 

Should be a great game.  

Andy, keep an eye on that prop and the juice could move in your favor. Let's say Wilson is sitting at 17.5 with a -130 juice. That could click to 18 -105 in a blink so keep an eye as the game gets closer. 
 
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Posted: #45
Quote Originally Posted by xflrejects:

After having more time to cap this game I would like to ADD this:

A) I have not forgotten that teams who scored 40+ points in any round of the playoffs are 8-33 ATS in the next round

B) Public perception of last game is HUGE and many Pats backers forget how Brady and Co. had to rally from behind 3X to overcome the feisty Ravens in a tight contest

C) There are 4 KEY STATS that have seen a team own ALL 4 going into the SB 15 out of 48 times and those teams are 12-3 SU in the SB and Seattle owns ALL 4  stats. They are: 1) allows fewer points 2) averages more rushing yards 3) allowing fewer rushing yards 4) allowing fewer total yards

I also feel upon closer consideration that there will be a 
heavy dosage of tape review of the two Giants SB wins
over NE and that they will hold Brady and Co.to 20 
or less. SEA does not match up in a shootout nor will they engage in one.


SEA 23 NE 17



 
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Posted: #46
Quote Originally Posted by WilliamMunny:

a chair punk ? i tried being reasonable once i didn't like it...

 
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Posted: #47
Quote Originally Posted by naesiy:

This is probably the best discussion on the SB I have read yet on this site...and it's less than a page long....granted I haven't been in the nfl forum much lately, but awesome perspectives guys.  I'm liking my seattle pick alot more.

This is because Mac, Glyde and others always shared excellent opinions and great angles without the BS as OP mentioned.  Between Amac, RJSizzle, and 165yds (in his prime) there really were some excellent discussions that are few and far between on this site today.  Would love RJSizzle to post here again.  I'm sure there are other i'm leaving out (theone, pro1, etc)

Mac - good to see you man hope all is well.  Glad to see we are on the same side here.  IMO, this game is very similar to last year's, don't think it will be as lopsided, but I see Seattle easily handling their business.  Their LBS and Secondary are very physical and over-sized (save Earl Thomas who makes up for it w/ aggression) and they should handle gronk and NE WRS easily.

the Championship couldn't have played out better for this situation with Seattle looking terrible and hardly getting past GB combined with the Pats steamrolling Indy.  This helped to drastically skew the public perception ad gave Seattle a great # (Bodog still has +2).

I'll be playing Seattle +3 (Buying point) relatively large as well as sea alt spreads at -6.5 +200 and -10.5 +300.  BOL ALL 
 
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Posted: #48
Quote Originally Posted by Michfan15:


This is because Mac, Glyde and others always shared excellent opinions and great angles without the BS as OP mentioned.  Between Amac, RJSizzle, and 165yds (in his prime) there really were some excellent discussions that are few and far between on this site today.  Would love RJSizzle to post here again.  I'm sure there are other i'm leaving out (theone, pro1, etc)

Mac - good to see you man hope all is well.  Glad to see we are on the same side here.  IMO, this game is very similar to last year's, don't think it will be as lopsided, but I see Seattle easily handling their business.  Their LBS and Secondary are very physical and over-sized (save Earl Thomas who makes up for it w/ aggression) and they should handle gronk and NE WRS easily.

the Championship couldn't have played out better for this situation with Seattle looking terrible and hardly getting past GB combined with the Pats steamrolling Indy.  This helped to drastically skew the public perception ad gave Seattle a great # (Bodog still has +2).

I'll be playing Seattle +3 (Buying point) relatively large as well as sea alt spreads at -6.5 +200 and -10.5 +300.  BOL ALL 



Yup         
 
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Posted: #49
Quote Originally Posted by Michfan15:


This is because Mac, Glyde and others always shared excellent opinions and great angles without the BS as OP mentioned.  Between Amac, RJSizzle, and 165yds (in his prime) there really were some excellent discussions that are few and far between on this site today.  Would love RJSizzle to post here again.  I'm sure there are other i'm leaving out (theone, pro1, etc)

Mac - good to see you man hope all is well.  Glad to see we are on the same side here.  IMO, this game is very similar to last year's, don't think it will be as lopsided, but I see Seattle easily handling their business.  Their LBS and Secondary are very physical and over-sized (save Earl Thomas who makes up for it w/ aggression) and they should handle gronk and NE WRS easily.

the Championship couldn't have played out better for this situation with Seattle looking terrible and hardly getting past GB combined with the Pats steamrolling Indy.  This helped to drastically skew the public perception ad gave Seattle a great # (Bodog still has +2).

I'll be playing Seattle +3 (Buying point) relatively large as well as sea alt spreads at -6.5 +200 and -10.5 +300.  BOL ALL 

Hey Mich, good luck, bro! 
 
 
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Posted: #50
thx brotha....managed to obtain a few goodies for the game 
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