I would like to start early and share some predictive stats. I hope others will come on board with their thoughts.
season=2024 and team and sacks-o:sacks>0 and week>1
156-63 (71%) ATS
Always thought the line of scrimmage is a gold mine and imo sacks can involve this idea.
If we change the query to sacks-o:sacks>1 and use the top 8 teams, we get
55-11 (83%) A significant result!!
season=2024 and week>1 and sacks/o:sacks>1 and p:W
55-22-1 ats (71.4%)
In the teaser records +6 it's 71-7 (91%)
season=2024 and week>1 and TO-o:TO>1
This one is 17-80(17.5%)
In the teaser records -6 it's 8-90 (8.2%)
On to the CFL buddy
and if you add p:L it's (14%) ats and 3-54 in teaser records -6 (5.3%)
That is a Conjecture Query based on the current game. You have no values for the sacks. If we query for the entire league based on p:
season=2024 and p:sacks-op:sacks>0 and week>1
ATS: 98-116-4 (-1.1,45.8%) GTD
If you make a reasonable conjecture that team A will have more sacks than team B and you are correct, team A will likely cover. What sacks values are you using to pick a team in the current game: p, avg, ytd?
Again, that is a Conjecture Query for the current game. Teams that manage 4+ sacks usually cover. How are you selecting those teams? There are no p, avg or ytd parameters in that query.
season = 2024 and p:sacks > 3
ATS: 62-64-5 (-0.2,49.2%) GTD
season = 2024 and tA(sacks) > 3
ATS: 47-50-2 (-0.0,48.5%) GTD
season=2024 and tA(sacks) - oA(sacks) > 1.5
ATS: 15-14 (0.5,51.7%) GTD
JC, I hope you can find a way to predict the sacks in any game (or week's games) you are handicapping. Good luck.
THX DBW
I have made this mistake in the past but eventually figured it out. I need to find a line of scrimmage query moving forward.
I wish covers had a delete post option to flush these awful findings........lol
If Covers enabled that, tons of bad picks would disappear. We'd have a tough time deciding which posters are actually worth tailing, or at least reading.
THX DBW!
Your query inspired me. Another line of scrimmage predictive stat imo is RY
season=2024 and week>1 and p:RY
season=2024 and week>1 and p:RY
I see the beginning of a LOS (line of scrimmage model)...;-)
Are you sure about that?
p:RY - pp:RY < -2.5 and pp:RY - ppp:RY < -2.5
ATS: 1151-1153-70 (0.1,50.0%)
HD's do cover at 54.4%, but the avg ATS margin is only 1.2, so I'd skip it.
See post 22.
tA(sacks) = the team's average sacks for the current season
oA(sacks) = the opponent's average sacks for the current season
tA(o:sacks) = the team's average opponent sacks for the current season, i.e. the team's avg sacks of its own QBs
[Quote: Originally Posted by DogbiteWilliams]Quote Originally Posted by jowchoo: A question: Does tA(sacks) measure the "net" average, that is sacks made minus sacks allowed? For that matter does this protocol "A" measure NET or just offensive average? A(RY), oA(PY), tA(qbr)....etal?? tA(sacks) = the team's average sacks for the current season oA(sacks) = the opponent's average sacks for the current season tA(o:sacks) = the team's average opponent sacks for the current season, i.e. the team's avg sacks of its own QBs[/Quote
Thx...... so, tA(sacks)-tA(o:sacks)= NET sack differential
Established in 1995,
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