Atlanta Falcons ML

Revenge match for Atlanta at home.

7 pt dogs looks good. I am more confident in this play than I was with my Giants ML play this past week. Giants almost pulled it out, but not quite. I think Atlanta will though. 27-24

Bol

I kind of agree. But I also think they have definitely been lucky to go undefeated so far. If they could force two turn overs whenever they wanted, they would be shutting teams out.

The New Orleans win was definitely lucky...that the Saints lost their challenge near the end, of Saints would have won. To me, it appeared the ball touched the ground and was an incomplete pass, but they ruled in favor of the panthers, and that call was the only reason they won that game.

Kinda confused by your comment.....What does Newton being the MVP have anything to do with the Panthers winning or losing this week?

I think Carolina losing will be beneficial to the NFL, money wise. Remember just a few weeks ago, covers advertised a prop for both Pats and Panthers going undefeated. Pats were +500 and Panthers somewhere around +1500

You know a lot of bettors probably jumped on both of those. Each week since then, Panthers have been squeeking out wins (with the exception of a couple blow outs)

I think it's almost obvious Atlanta picks of the win this week at home.

If Carolina was going to win, they would be 6.5 favorites or less, not 7 pt....

Now that's not set in stone, of course a 7 pt favorite could win but the reason why it's less likely is given away in the spread alone. 

I figured this out by studying games over the years. It's part of vegas mind games arsenal. I'll explain...

When you have a great team vs a bad team and you see a 6.5 spread, bettors often ignore the ML in this case, and jump on the spread, seeing as it's less than a TD. But when you have a 7 pt spread, they often jump on the ML, especially when they do a parlay (and believe it or not, the majority of bettors in las vegas do parlays)

So, the 7 pt spread here tells me, the public will be on Carolina ML and that tells me, it's a good spot for them to lose, as the prop bet for +1500 I don't think is coming through. And I don't think it will be Tampa who beats them next week, so I believe Atlanta is good value here at 7 pt dogs, to take them ML.

Will be close either way, I am thinking 28 to 24.....or 27 to 24 final score.

In their last match up in Carolina, when the spread was 8.5, I had Carolina in that one, and i had them in a blow out. Had them on my pleaser ticket as well -14.5 and covered that easily as well.

This week I'll have Atlanta on my Pleaser ticket, they will be +0.5

I'll give you $100 bucks, if you bet $5 on Atlanta....

No? Ok fine I'll keep the $100 then and I'll put it on Atlanta ML.

In all seriousness, this is pro sports, we all know it's fixed. Atlanta was 5-0, they are a great team. Ever since that New Orleans game where they turned the ball over so many times in the red zone, they went south.

If the league wants Atlanta to win this week, they will win. Simple as that. I personally believe they want them to win so that is the only reason I am betting them. It has nothing to do with how good they've been playing or how much better Carolina might be or any of that. just a simple guess, that this one will be staged for a close Atlanta win at home.

I think the Falcons are actually a very solid team. They just need to limit their turn overs and they'll be ok.

I wouldn't call it the bet of the year...but definitely my top play this week 

I also think if it were Pitt and Carolina in the super bowl, Pitt would be favorites, not carolina. Books still haven't been sold on Carolina yet, or they feel the same way I do....that they are overdue for a loss.

Carolina was underdogs at Dallas. lol

But the way Pitt has been playing lately, vs the way baltimore has been playing, you would think Pitt will blow them out

I just cant see Carolina being undefeated at the end of the season

Carolina also should of lost to the Saints, they got lucky to win that game

Hypothetically, let's say your assumption is right.  Why in jebus' name would the NFL want ATL to beat CAR?  How does that benefit them?  That benefits the books a small bit but I doubt books are sweating a +1500 payout.  Compared to what an undefeated Panther's team is doing to viewership that +1500 is peanuts.  Wild behind guess, maybe a Million total in exposure for that bet?  I'd guess merch $$, viewers and the storyline going into the playoffs of an undefeated Cam Newton easily trumps that, even IF the NFL has some vested interested in not allowing undefeated Panther prop bets to cash.  

Am I missing something?  I'm curious actually.

Idk, I just don't see it and I think you are making a bad bet.  But GLTU either way.

The books do care about money. And +1500 is considered a big bet for them. 

We will see. They have been generous this year letting the public win a lot, it seems. Maybe they will clean up big time this week...they usually do the week after. Expect a public blood bath this week.

I could be wrong here, please don't take my word on anything. I was certain Dallas was going to beat them too, and they got blown out.

So, bet who you like. I am just taking a shot with Atlanta ML, if I lose, no big deal. I don't have to bet large on it, since the payout in a parlay will be generous.