Regression was inevitable
I was looking for a word to describe the Falcons’ 2017 campaign and here is what I came up with: weird. Their season was weird. They won games they were supposed to lose and lost games they were supposed to win. In 2017, against the Lions and Saints, the Falcons went 2-0 when throwing three or more interceptions – all other teams went 1-31. They also went 1-0 in a game at Seattle in which they had less than 100 rush yards, less than 200 passing yards and conceded more than 30 points. The rest of the league went 0-19. Well, teams are 6-636 in this case since 1989. And then, on the flip side, they lost games against the Bills, Dolphins and Panthers which they could have or rather should have won. And those three games pretty much sum their season up as they were highly efficient on a yards-per-play basis, but they were completely inefficient in terms of scoring-based outcomes – this is what you see in the stats sheet above. And that’s why I kept saying they weren’t a good playoff team last year.
Let’s dive into the numbers: Atlanta’s offense ranked 3rdin Net Yards Per Pass Attempt and therefore 3rdin Yards Per Play. But they ranked just 12thin passer rating and 10thin Pass DVOA. On defense, it was the same story: They ranked 9thin Net Yards Per Pass Attempt and 13thin Yards Per Play. However, they ranked 20thin Passer Rating and 19thin Pass DVOA. They couldn’t turn their efficiency in yardage into scoring-based efficiency. You can also recognize that when studying the Expected Scoring table. Based on metrics, they should have scored 24.1 offensive points per game but scored only 20.8.
That’s why they were still inefficient and finished 12thin my overall ranking. What were the reasons for it? First of all, Matt Ryan was sensational, but he was also in a crazy regression season and his supporting cast showed issues that haven’t been there in 2016. He led all Quarterbacks in tipped interceptions and he had a stunning six of them! The Falcons receiving corps also had a lot of failed receptions like drops on accurate throws. According to Pro Football Focus, Matt Ryan was among the best quarterbacks in turnover-worthy throws. He just had bad luck - it’s what we call variance.
It also didn’t help that first-year NFL offensive coordinator Steve Sarkisian struggled with play-calling and situational awareness. Gone were the creative play-action plays by Kyle Shanahan, arrived has a more conservative drop-back offense. While I was watching the Bills and Dolphins games again before writing this chapter, I had the feeling that Steve Sarkisian is a casual Madden player who randomly chooses between the three plays provided by “Ask Madden”.
To demonstrate the problems explained, let’s take a look at the Bills, Dolphins and Panthers games that perfectly illustrate what I am saying. Thanks to a fumble return touchdown and a few exceptional plays by Tyrod Taylor, the Bills led 23-17. With 40 seconds left, the Falcons were facing a 4th& 1 at the BUF14 after Sarkisian refused to run the ball or give Ryan short options on 3rddown. On 4thdown, the Falcons didn’t run a fullback dive, a QB sneak or spread the field out to create mismatches in the short area. Sarkisian called an under-center pass in 12 personnel with the tight end, fullback and running back being in pass protection. Only two receivers ran routes and neither had the name Julio Jones. Both routes were covered, the pass to Taylor Gabriel went incomplete – game, set match.
Against the Dolphins, the Falcons led 17-0 at halftime just to let the Fins come back, taking over with a 20-17 lead late in the game. Once again, the Falcons marched downfield and had a 1st& 10 at the MIA26 with 47 seconds and two timeouts left. TE Austin Hooper ran a post route from inside the right number to the MIA8. Ryan delivered a perfect ball into his hands, but he couldn’t haul it in with Codrea Tankersley in his back and the ball popped into the hands of safety Reshad Jones – game, set, match. At Carolina, the Falcons outgained their divisional rival by 2.5 yards per pass and 24.6 in passer rating, but two crucial plays didn’t go their way. Right before halftime, the Falcons were at the CAR49 and Matt Ryan was looking for Austin Hooper over the middle, but he fell down on his route and Mike Adams returned the easy interception into Falcons territory. The Panthers scored a touchdown and made it 14-10 before halftime. Later in the game while facing a 4th& 7 at the CAR39, Ryan went deep to a wide-open Julio Jones in the end zone, but Jones dropped the easy touchdown reception. Atlanta still went 10-6 because of the other three weird wins described. And how did the Falcons season end? By terrible play-calling inside the Eagles red zone at the end of the divisional playoffs. A classic Sarkisian. Rant over.
how did i not see this, again good analysis Suuma
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