• Forums
  • Best Betting Sites
  • Sportsbook Promos
  • Best Sports Betting Apps
  • NFL Betting Forum
  • NBA Betting Forum
  • MLB Betting Forum
  • NHL Betting Forum
  • NCAAF Betting Forum
  • NCAAB Betting Forum
  • Soccer Betting Forum
  • Tennis Betting Forum
  • General Discussion
  • Help Forum
  • Guidelines
  • FAQ
  • Forum Updates
    Covers Logo
    Covers App
    Faster picks. Smarter bets.
    All in the NEW Covers App
    Download on the App Store Download on the Google Play Store
    • Sports
      • NFL
        • Back
        • NFL
        • NFL Home
        • Scores & Matchups
        • Prop Projections
        • NFL Picks
        • NFL Prediction Prices
        • Weather
        • Injuries
      • NCAAF
        • Back
        • NCAAF
        • NCAAF Home
        • Scores & Matchups
        • Prop Projections
        • NCAAF Picks
        • Weather
        • Injuries
      • NBA
        • Back
        • NBA
        • NBA Home
        • Scores & Matchups
        • Prop Projections
        • NBA Picks
        • Injuries
      • NCAAB
        • Back
        • NCAAB
        • NCAAB Home
        • Scores & Matchups
        • NCAAB Picks
        • Injuries
      • MLB
        • Back
        • MLB
        • MLB Home
        • Scores & Matchups
        • Prop Projections
        • MLB Picks
        • Weather
        • Injuries
      • NHL
        • Back
        • NHL
        • NHL Home
        • Scores & Matchups
        • Prop Projections
        • NHL Picks
        • Injuries
      • Soccer
      • UFC
        • Back
        • UFC
        • Odds
        • Picks
        • News & Analysis
      • WNBA
        • Back
        • WNBA
        • WNBA Home
        • Scores & Matchups
        • WNBA Picks
        • Injuries
      • CFL
        • Back
        • CFL
        • CFL Home
        • Scores & Matchups
        • CFL Picks
      • Golf
        • Back
        • Golf
        • Golf Home
        • Golf Odds
        • Masters Odds
        • PGA Championship Odds
        • US Open Odds
        • British Open Odds
        • Ryder Cup Odds
        • Golf Picks
    • Odds
      • All Odds
      • NFL
      • NCAAF
      • NBA
      • NCAAB
      • MLB
      • NHL
      • Golf
      • Soccer Odds
        • Back
        • Soccer Odds
        • MLS Odds
        • Champions League Odds
        • Premier League Odds
      • UFC
      • WNBA
      • CFL
      • Election Odds
      • Futures
        • Back
        • Futures
        • NFL
        • NBA
        • MLB
        • NHL
        • NCAAB
        • NCAAF
      • Sports Odds History
      • Politics
        • Back
        • Politics
        • Politics Home
        • Presidential Election Odds
        • Midterm Election Odds
        • House Midterm Odds
        • Senate Midterm Odds
        • Texas Midterm Odds
        • Michigan Midterm Odds
    • Picks
      • All Picks
      • NFL
      • NBA
      • NHL
      • MLB
      • NCAAF
      • NCAAB
      • UFC
      • Golf
      • WNBA
      • CFL
      • User Picks
      • Team User Picks
      • Consensus Picks
        • Back
        • Consensus Picks
        • All Consensus Picks
        • NFL
        • NBA
        • NHL
        • MLB
        • NCAAF
        • NCAAB
        • CFL
        • WNBA
        • Consensus FAQ
        • Public Money
    • Prop Projections
      • NFL
      • NBA
      • MLB
      • NHL
    • Betting
      • US Betting Sites
      • Canada Betting Sites
      • Sportsbook Reviews
      • States
        • Back
        • States
        • US Legal Tracker
        • Revenue Tracker
        • Arizona
        • Arkansas
        • California
        • Colorado
        • Connecticut
        • DC
        • Florida
        • Georgia
        • Illinois
        • Indiana
        • Iowa
        • Kansas
        • Kentucky
        • Louisiana
        • Maine
        • Maryland
        • Massachusetts
        • Michigan
        • Mississippi
        • Missouri
        • Nevada
        • New Hampshire
        • New Jersey
        • New York
        • North Carolina
        • Ohio
        • Oregon
        • Pennsylvania
        • Tennessee
        • Texas
        • Vermont
        • Virginia
        • West Virginia
        • Wyoming
      • Provinces
        • Back
        • Provinces
        • Alberta
        • British Columbia
        • Manitoba
        • New Brunswick
        • Newfoundland and Labrador
        • Northwest Territories
        • Nova Scotia
        • Nunavut
        • Ontario
        • Prince Edward Island
        • Quebec (English)
        • Quebec (francais)
        • Saskatchewan
        • Yukon
      • By Sport
        • Back
        • By Sport
        • Baseball
        • Basketball
        • Boxing
        • College Football
        • F1
        • Football
        • Super Bowl
        • Golf
        • Hockey
        • Horse Racing
        • March Madness
        • Soccer
        • UFC
        • World Cup
      • Betting Apps
        • Back
        • Betting Apps
        • Best Sports Betting Apps USA
        • Ontario Sports Betting Apps
      • Rest of World
        • Back
        • Rest of World
        • UK Betting Offers
          • Back
          • UK Betting Offers
          • UK Betting Sites
          • bet365 Bonus Code UK
          • 888Sport Promo Code UK
          • William Hill Sign up Offer
          • Betway Sign up Offer
          • BetVictor Bonus Code UK
      • Betting Guides
        • Back
        • Betting Guides
        • All Guides
        • Glossary
        • Betting Calculators
          • Back
          • Betting Calculators
          • Odds Converter
          • Parlay Calculator
        • Futures Betting Guide
        • Moneyline Betting Guide
        • Over/Under Betting Guide
        • Parlay Betting Guide
        • Point Spread Betting Guide
        • Prop Betting Guide
        • Sports Betting Guides
          • Back
          • Sports Betting Guides
          • How To Bet On Sports Guide
          • NFL Betting Guide
          • NHL Betting Guide
          • NBA Betting Guide
          • MLB Betting Guide
          • NCAAB Betting Guide
          • NCAAF Betting Guide
          • Golf Betting Guide
          • Tennis Betting Guide
        • Teaser Betting Guide
      • Betting News
        • Back
        • Betting News
        • All News
        • Industry News
        • Podcasts
        • Covers Videos
        • Covers Writers
        • Offers & Boosts
    • Promos
      • Sportsbook Promos
      • Canada Sportsbook Promos
      • Bonuses By Sportsbook
        • Back
        • Bonuses By Sportsbook
        • bet365 Bonus Code
        • BET99 Promo Code
        • BetMGM Bonus Code
        • BetRivers Bonus Code
        • Caesars Sportsbook Promo
        • DraftKings Promo Code
        • Fanatics Sportsbook Promo
        • FanDuel Promo Code
        • Hard Rock Bet Promo Code
        • Sports Interaction Promo
        • Stake Promo Code
        • theScore Bet Promo Code
        • TonyBet Promo Code
      • Bonuses By Region
        • Back
        • Bonuses By Region
        • Arkansas Promos
        • Arizona Promos
        • Colorado Promos
        • Connecticut Promos
        • DC Promos
        • Illinois Promos
        • Indiana Promos
        • Iowa Promos
        • Kansas Promos
        • Kentucky Promos
        • Louisiana Promos
        • Maine Promos
        • Maryland Promos
        • Massachusetts Promos
        • Michigan Promos
        • Missouri Promos
        • New Jersey Promos
        • New York Promos
        • North Carolina Promos
        • Ohio Promos
        • Pennsylvania Promos
        • Tennessee Promos
        • Vermont Promos
        • Virginia Promos
        • West Virginia Promos
        • Wyoming Promos
    • Forum & Contests
      • All Forums
      • NFL Betting Forum
      • MLB Betting Forum
      • NCAAB Betting Forum
      • NCAAF Betting Forum
      • NBA Betting Forum
      • NHL Betting Forum
      • Soccer Betting Forum
      • Contests
        • Back
        • Contests
        • Contests Home
        • Streak Survivor
        • King of Covers
        • My Contests
    • Casino
      • Sweepstakes Casino
        • Back
        • Sweepstakes Casino
        • Sweepstakes Casino
        • Sweepstakes No-Deposit Bonuses
        • Sweepstakes Promos
          • Back
          • Sweepstakes Promos
          • Crown Coins Promo Code
          • FreeSpin Casino Promo Code
          • Jackpota Promo Code
          • LoneStar Promo Code
          • McLuck Promo Code
          • NoLimitCoins Promo Code
          • Rainbet.us Promo Code
          • RealPrize Promo Code
          • Splash Coins Promo Code
          • Stake.us Promo Code
      • US Casinos
        • Back
        • US Casinos
        • US Online Casinos
        • US Online Casino Bonuses
        • Casino Promos
          • Back
          • Casino Promos
          • bet365 Casino Promo Code
          • BetMGM Casino Promo Code
          • BetRivers Casino Promo
          • Borgata Casino Bonus Code
          • Caesars Casino Bonus Code
          • DraftKings Casino Promo
          • Fanatics Casino Promo
          • FanDuel Casino Promo Code
          • Golden Nugget Casino Promo
          • Hard Rock Bet Casino Promo
          • Hollywood Casino Promo Code
      • Canada Casinos
        • Back
        • Canada Casinos
        • Canada Online Casinos
        • Provinces
          • Back
          • Provinces
          • Alberta Online Casino
          • BC Online Casino
          • Ontario Online Casinos
        • Casino Promos
          • Back
          • Casino Promos
          • 7Bit Promo Code
          • BC.GAME Bonus Code
          • BitStarz Promo Code
          • Jack Casino Promo Code
          • JackpotCity Promo Code
          • Rainbet Promo Code
          • Roobet Promo Code
          • Shuffle Promo Code
          • Spin Casino Promo Code
          • TonyBet Casino Bonus Code
    • Prediction Markets
      • Prediction Markets
      • Prediction Market Apps
      • Prediction Market Promos
      • Kalshi Promo Code
      • Kalshi Referral Code
      • Polymarket Promo Code
      • Polymarket Referral Code
      • FanDuel Predicts Promo Code
      • Gemini Predictions Promo Code
      • Novig Promo Code
      • Underdog Promo Code
      • ProphetX Promo Code
      • OG Promo Code
      • Plus500 Promo Code
      • Betr Promo Code
      • DraftKings Predictions Promo Code
      • Fanatics Markets Promo Code
    • NFL Week 9
      NFL Week 9
      • NFL Odds
      • NFL Picks
      • NFL Prediction Markets
      • NFL Betting Sites
    Covers Account
    Log in Create account
    Join free Log in
    All Forums | NFL Betting Forum

    Atlanta lost the SB on 3rd and 23 at the +35 with 3:50 left in game.

    «First Previous 12345 Next Last»
    Mikenifacent
    theclaw
    Toothfairy1
    Trinitiyy
    DoubleUp4Life
    ...
    Participants:
    Search
    Views: 14707
    Posts: 116
    «First Previous 12345 Next Last»
     
    Mikenifacent
    Mikenifacent
    Prospect
    Participation Meter
    Joined: Jan, 2007
    Posts: 76
    Posted: Feb. 6, 2017 - 7:29 AM ET #76

    do yall really believe these experienced nfl coaches are calling a play that ridiculous with the SB on the line? Cmon Mane! That game was fixed!!   3rd and 1 already in field goal range to go up by 11 points with 3 mins left? The FIX was in!!!   Fix was probably in when the Pats beat Seattle!!
    Reply
    do yall really believe these experienced nfl coaches are calling a play that ridiculous with the SB on the line? Cmon Mane! That game was fixed!!   3rd and 1 already in field goal range to go up by 11 points with 3 mins left? The FIX was in!!!   Fix was probably in when the Pats beat Seattle!!
     
    theclaw
    theclaw
    All-Star
    Participation Meter
    Joined: May, 2008
    Posts: 12292
    Posted: Feb. 6, 2017 - 7:33 AM ET #77

    The Pats last 2  SB wins came from bone-headed dumb plays by the opp.

    Pete got schooled calling a pick-play from the 1 yd line, the Pats d sees that play all the time in practice since one of favorite Pats plays.

    3 runs by Falcons even if for no gain set up a 40 yard FG, that is a very high probability FG in todays NFL.

    But it's not 100%.

    There is a small chance he could miss it, has happen before like last year playoff when Vikings kicker missed a much shorter FG

    Remember Gary Anderson missed a 39 yder for 98 vikes after not missing any kick in regular season, FG or Xpt which would of put Vikes up 10 with little time left.

    It does happen and those things weigh on coaches minds but running the ball could also produce yards as well and is much less risky to lose alot of yds.

    Jimmy Johnon said coaching Boys in early 90's, big plays get fans excited but it's the team makes the fewest dumb plays that wins more games.

    By-golly maybe he's on to something.
    Reply
    The Pats last 2  SB wins came from bone-headed dumb plays by the opp.

    Pete got schooled calling a pick-play from the 1 yd line, the Pats d sees that play all the time in practice since one of favorite Pats plays.

    3 runs by Falcons even if for no gain set up a 40 yard FG, that is a very high probability FG in todays NFL.

    But it's not 100%.

    There is a small chance he could miss it, has happen before like last year playoff when Vikings kicker missed a much shorter FG

    Remember Gary Anderson missed a 39 yder for 98 vikes after not missing any kick in regular season, FG or Xpt which would of put Vikes up 10 with little time left.

    It does happen and those things weigh on coaches minds but running the ball could also produce yards as well and is much less risky to lose alot of yds.

    Jimmy Johnon said coaching Boys in early 90's, big plays get fans excited but it's the team makes the fewest dumb plays that wins more games.

    By-golly maybe he's on to something.
     
    Toothfairy1
    Toothfairy1
    Veteran
    Participation Meter
    Joined: Mar, 2015
    Posts: 2425
    Posted: Feb. 6, 2017 - 8:11 AM ET #78

    Julio won them the super bowl with that catch, and Falcons pissed it away!
    If I'm the 49rs I would take back my offer to Kyle Shanahan!!
    Reply
    Julio won them the super bowl with that catch, and Falcons pissed it away!
    If I'm the 49rs I would take back my offer to Kyle Shanahan!!
     
    Trinitiyy
    Trinitiyy
    All-Star
    Participation Meter
    Joined: Aug, 2006
    Posts: 10368
    Posted: Feb. 6, 2017 - 9:32 AM ET #79

    Kyle Shanahan is a retard no doubts about it, all he had to do was run and milk the friggin clock in the 4th, why throw the friggin ball?? Matt Ryan is also a friggin retard for fumbling the ball witch was the one thing you did not want to do at your own 25. Atlanta as a team fell apart when it mattered most and it was sad to see. 

    Sorry to Julio Jones , man what a friggin catch to win the game for your team but it was all for nothing....

     Julio Jones 
    Reply
    Kyle Shanahan is a retard no doubts about it, all he had to do was run and milk the friggin clock in the 4th, why throw the friggin ball?? Matt Ryan is also a friggin retard for fumbling the ball witch was the one thing you did not want to do at your own 25. Atlanta as a team fell apart when it mattered most and it was sad to see. 

    Sorry to Julio Jones , man what a friggin catch to win the game for your team but it was all for nothing....

     Julio Jones 
     
    DoubleUp4Life
    DoubleUp4Life
    Banned
    Participation Meter
    Joined: Nov, 2007
    Posts: 66896
    Posted: Feb. 6, 2017 - 10:19 AM ET #80

    Quote Originally Posted by chewbacca:

    Yep! Amazing that Nfl coaches can be so clueless. After the Jones catch at the 20, they could have ran it three times and kicked. But they take a huge sack and then the hold...it is unreal!



    EASILY ONE OF THE BIGGEST COACHING BRAIN FARTS IN NFL HISTORY
    BEST OF HEALTH, HAPPINESS,WEALTH, BLESSINGS and LUCK TO ALL !!
    Reply
    Quote Originally Posted by chewbacca:

    Yep! Amazing that Nfl coaches can be so clueless. After the Jones catch at the 20, they could have ran it three times and kicked. But they take a huge sack and then the hold...it is unreal!



    EASILY ONE OF THE BIGGEST COACHING BRAIN FARTS IN NFL HISTORY
     
    vanzack
    vanzack
    Legend
    Participation Meter
    Joined: Nov, 2001
    Posts: 60107
    Posted: Feb. 6, 2017 - 10:57 AM ET #81

    Good article.

    This only describes the plays really.

    It doesnt describe how ATL only ran the ball 4 times in the final part of the game from the time they were up 28-12.

    Or how they were inexplicably snapping the ball way before the playclock ran down (as high as 20 secs).

    But a good read....

    https://www.yahoo.com/sports/news/the-16-plays-that-needed-to-go-the-patriots-way-in-their-comeback-and-all-of-them-did-072920750.html
    Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.
    Reply
    Good article.

    This only describes the plays really.

    It doesnt describe how ATL only ran the ball 4 times in the final part of the game from the time they were up 28-12.

    Or how they were inexplicably snapping the ball way before the playclock ran down (as high as 20 secs).

    But a good read....

    https://www.yahoo.com/sports/news/the-16-plays-that-needed-to-go-the-patriots-way-in-their-comeback-and-all-of-them-did-072920750.html
     
    Biscuiteater1
    Biscuiteater1
    Legend
    Participation Meter
    Joined: Jan, 2011
    Posts: 33320
    Posted: Feb. 6, 2017 - 11:10 AM ET #82

    Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:

    I mean what are they trying to do there?

    Even on 2nd and 10 at the 23 with 4:30 left.

    Why are they throwing it?
    here is where i thought they blew it, run twice kick it, even if Pats run ensuing kick off back Falcons could run it 3 more times and if they get a 1st down ball game and even if they dont Pats would have the ball back with no time outs and scant seconds left.
    Reply
    Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:

    I mean what are they trying to do there?

    Even on 2nd and 10 at the 23 with 4:30 left.

    Why are they throwing it?
    here is where i thought they blew it, run twice kick it, even if Pats run ensuing kick off back Falcons could run it 3 more times and if they get a 1st down ball game and even if they dont Pats would have the ball back with no time outs and scant seconds left.
     
    lbcake
    lbcake
    Hall of Fame
    Participation Meter
    Joined: May, 2005
    Posts: 27074
    Posted: Feb. 6, 2017 - 11:15 AM ET #83

    Coaches should have advisors next to them always asking them - 'Are you sure that's the right call'  'You might want to rethink that' 

    My staff would include 3. Head, defence and offence .

    We should not be surprised. NFL coaches determine the outcome more than any other sport. 
    Reply
    Coaches should have advisors next to them always asking them - 'Are you sure that's the right call'  'You might want to rethink that' 

    My staff would include 3. Head, defence and offence .

    We should not be surprised. NFL coaches determine the outcome more than any other sport. 
     
    Ali_
    Ali_
    Prospect
    Participation Meter
    Joined: May, 2015
    Posts: 324
    Posted: Feb. 6, 2017 - 12:08 PM ET #84

    Great catch by Julio 
    I did have a prop bet on him to get a touchdown which wasn't a wise bet
    Reply
    Great catch by Julio 
    I did have a prop bet on him to get a touchdown which wasn't a wise bet
     
    vegasslim
    vegasslim
    Veteran
    Participation Meter
    Joined: Jan, 2011
    Posts: 1553
    Posted: Feb. 6, 2017 - 12:17 PM ET #85

    FOUR running plays by the falcons after they took a 28-3 lead BRILLIANT JOB shanny!! YOU lost the superbowl
    Reply
    FOUR running plays by the falcons after they took a 28-3 lead BRILLIANT JOB shanny!! YOU lost the superbowl
     
    wallstreetcappers
    wallstreetcappers
    Covers Linesmen
    Participation Meter
    Joined: Feb, 2003
    Posts: 58462
    Posted: Feb. 6, 2017 - 1:23 PM ET #86

    I dont know if I agree with the run 3 times comments.

    We see so many times that teams try and milk a lead by going away from what they did to build the lead and we will criticize them for doing that...so either way its a no-win from a fan perspective.

    One thing that came to my mind...in the 3rd quarter I was checking out the game stats on NFL.com and I was shocked at how lopsided the stats were, the Pats were dominating in every category but the score, they had nearly double the yards, much more TOP and outside two turnovers if someone were to look at the numbers and guess the score without seeing the score you would think that the Pats were up 24-14 given the stats.

    I think what happened is the defense just started sucking wind in the second half and could not stop the Pats and their passing game.

    Even if the Falcons kick the FG, given how awful the defense was and the Pats had timeouts, there still was a good chance they could have caught another score as the Pats really were NOT running a HUPO at all, in fact I was a bit shocked in the 4th how methodical and slow they were running the offense. 


    Reply
    I dont know if I agree with the run 3 times comments.

    We see so many times that teams try and milk a lead by going away from what they did to build the lead and we will criticize them for doing that...so either way its a no-win from a fan perspective.

    One thing that came to my mind...in the 3rd quarter I was checking out the game stats on NFL.com and I was shocked at how lopsided the stats were, the Pats were dominating in every category but the score, they had nearly double the yards, much more TOP and outside two turnovers if someone were to look at the numbers and guess the score without seeing the score you would think that the Pats were up 24-14 given the stats.

    I think what happened is the defense just started sucking wind in the second half and could not stop the Pats and their passing game.

    Even if the Falcons kick the FG, given how awful the defense was and the Pats had timeouts, there still was a good chance they could have caught another score as the Pats really were NOT running a HUPO at all, in fact I was a bit shocked in the 4th how methodical and slow they were running the offense. 


     
    Playtowin01
    Playtowin01
    Prospect
    Participation Meter
    Joined: Mar, 2014
    Posts: 424
    Posted: Feb. 6, 2017 - 1:53 PM ET #87

    They should played like the game winning field goal and with 30 seconds to go ! ..... of course you going to run ! ..... two years ago seahawks make dumb plays too at the end........ they are not that dumb to make these plays like or maybe they don't want to get the field goal. also Atl threw on 3rd and 1 to go and fumbled lol ..... at least I had 1st half atl 
    Reply
    They should played like the game winning field goal and with 30 seconds to go ! ..... of course you going to run ! ..... two years ago seahawks make dumb plays too at the end........ they are not that dumb to make these plays like or maybe they don't want to get the field goal. also Atl threw on 3rd and 1 to go and fumbled lol ..... at least I had 1st half atl 
     
    firesox
    firesox
    Prospect
    Participation Meter
    Joined: Mar, 2016
    Posts: 478
    Posted: Feb. 6, 2017 - 2:21 PM ET #88

    Quote Originally Posted by Cavs2017Champs:

    Atlanta lost the SB before it even started cuz it was scripted for them to lose... Before the game even started, Brady was all happy but Ryan looked "nervous"... Brady knew NE was winning and Ryan knew Atlanta was going to lose.. You dont just blow a 25 point lead just like that, just like the Warriors blowing a 3 - 1 lead yet dominating the first 3 out of 4 games.. 


    Reply
    Quote Originally Posted by Cavs2017Champs:

    Atlanta lost the SB before it even started cuz it was scripted for them to lose... Before the game even started, Brady was all happy but Ryan looked "nervous"... Brady knew NE was winning and Ryan knew Atlanta was going to lose.. You dont just blow a 25 point lead just like that, just like the Warriors blowing a 3 - 1 lead yet dominating the first 3 out of 4 games.. 


     
    searchwarrant
    searchwarrant
    Legend
    Participation Meter
    Joined: May, 2003
    Posts: 71024
    Posted: Feb. 6, 2017 - 8:53 PM ET #89

    good thread.
    Reply
    good thread.
     
    vanzack
    vanzack
    Legend
    Participation Meter
    Joined: Nov, 2001
    Posts: 60107
    Posted: Feb. 6, 2017 - 9:38 PM ET #90

    Really good article on the subject....

    https://www.wired.com/2017/02/blackjack-superstar-explains-odds-historic-patriots-win/
    Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.
    Reply
    Really good article on the subject....

    https://www.wired.com/2017/02/blackjack-superstar-explains-odds-historic-patriots-win/
     
    anaheimRX
    anaheimRX
    Prospect
    Participation Meter
    Joined: Aug, 2014
    Posts: 449
    Posted: Feb. 7, 2017 - 4:41 AM ET #91

    Why would the Falcons make every single wrong move they could, willingly? 

    If the obvious right move was to run the play clock down, why didn't they?

    If the obvious right move was to run 3x and kick a fg, why didn't they?

    "Oh, they're just dumb, yeah." 

    The Falcons were like "hmm, you know what, lets just do everything we can to help the Pats get an edge, because that's how dumb we are. We're winning too big, lets make it fun, guys. Let's do the EXACT opposite of what we should do, in terms of probability of winning." 

    You guys keep commenting on the improbability of all these events occurring to produce the final outcome. Wouldn't you then have to give serious consideration to the possibility that these events weren't random?
    Reply
    Why would the Falcons make every single wrong move they could, willingly? 

    If the obvious right move was to run the play clock down, why didn't they?

    If the obvious right move was to run 3x and kick a fg, why didn't they?

    "Oh, they're just dumb, yeah." 

    The Falcons were like "hmm, you know what, lets just do everything we can to help the Pats get an edge, because that's how dumb we are. We're winning too big, lets make it fun, guys. Let's do the EXACT opposite of what we should do, in terms of probability of winning." 

    You guys keep commenting on the improbability of all these events occurring to produce the final outcome. Wouldn't you then have to give serious consideration to the possibility that these events weren't random?
     
    vanzack
    vanzack
    Legend
    Participation Meter
    Joined: Nov, 2001
    Posts: 60107
    Posted: Feb. 7, 2017 - 10:19 AM ET #92

    Quote Originally Posted by anaheimRX:

    Why would the Falcons make every single wrong move they could, willingly? 

    If the obvious right move was to run the play clock down, why didn't they?

    If the obvious right move was to run 3x and kick a fg, why didn't they?

    "Oh, they're just dumb, yeah." 

    The Falcons were like "hmm, you know what, lets just do everything we can to help the Pats get an edge, because that's how dumb we are. We're winning too big, lets make it fun, guys. Let's do the EXACT opposite of what we should do, in terms of probability of winning." 

    You guys keep commenting on the improbability of all these events occurring to produce the final outcome. Wouldn't you then have to give serious consideration to the possibility that these events weren't random?

    It happens all the time in real life.  Pressure does strange things to peoples decision making abilities.

    You are looking for patterns in randomness.

    There is no way to script that.  I tell you what - I will give you a shot here (or any of the other "fix" people in this thread) - walk me through the detail of how a fix like this could happen.  DETAILS.  Who did it.  How they did it.

    Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.
    Reply
    Quote Originally Posted by anaheimRX:

    Why would the Falcons make every single wrong move they could, willingly? 

    If the obvious right move was to run the play clock down, why didn't they?

    If the obvious right move was to run 3x and kick a fg, why didn't they?

    "Oh, they're just dumb, yeah." 

    The Falcons were like "hmm, you know what, lets just do everything we can to help the Pats get an edge, because that's how dumb we are. We're winning too big, lets make it fun, guys. Let's do the EXACT opposite of what we should do, in terms of probability of winning." 

    You guys keep commenting on the improbability of all these events occurring to produce the final outcome. Wouldn't you then have to give serious consideration to the possibility that these events weren't random?

    It happens all the time in real life.  Pressure does strange things to peoples decision making abilities.

    You are looking for patterns in randomness.

    There is no way to script that.  I tell you what - I will give you a shot here (or any of the other "fix" people in this thread) - walk me through the detail of how a fix like this could happen.  DETAILS.  Who did it.  How they did it.

     
    JohnKreese
    JohnKreese
    Prospect
    Participation Meter
    Joined: Feb, 2008
    Posts: 155
    Posted: Feb. 7, 2017 - 12:23 PM ET #93

    Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:


    It happens all the time in real life.  Pressure does strange things to peoples decision making abilities.

    You are looking for patterns in randomness.

    There is no way to script that.  I tell you what - I will give you a shot here (or any of the other "fix" people in this thread) - walk me through the detail of how a fix like this could happen.  DETAILS.  Who did it.  How they did it.


    I don’t have all of the details that you are asking for here but the solution is pretty simple.  Do you want to remove the emotion and pressure from the decisions that need to be made?  Well then you need to take these decisions out of the hands of human beings and allow computers to make them.   We see this more and more in financial markets these days.  “Gut” traders, by and large, have been replaced with algorithms that stick to a process no matter what.  Obviously we can’t eliminate the human element from coaching entirely, but I think the solution is pretty simple- hire a team of software developers to create an application that will run simulations using actual historical game data and use this data to inform what the best possible decision is at any given time with probabilities based on past outcomes.

    Put this on the tablets that all the coaches carry around and voila; you’ve got all the answers to the test right in front of you.   If there was a red flashing light screaming at Shanahan to tell Ryan to let the play clock run down or telling him that the benefit of running the ball and burning clock increases their win probability by X percent, maybe he would have listened…

    Reply
    Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:


    It happens all the time in real life.  Pressure does strange things to peoples decision making abilities.

    You are looking for patterns in randomness.

    There is no way to script that.  I tell you what - I will give you a shot here (or any of the other "fix" people in this thread) - walk me through the detail of how a fix like this could happen.  DETAILS.  Who did it.  How they did it.


    I don’t have all of the details that you are asking for here but the solution is pretty simple.  Do you want to remove the emotion and pressure from the decisions that need to be made?  Well then you need to take these decisions out of the hands of human beings and allow computers to make them.   We see this more and more in financial markets these days.  “Gut” traders, by and large, have been replaced with algorithms that stick to a process no matter what.  Obviously we can’t eliminate the human element from coaching entirely, but I think the solution is pretty simple- hire a team of software developers to create an application that will run simulations using actual historical game data and use this data to inform what the best possible decision is at any given time with probabilities based on past outcomes.

    Put this on the tablets that all the coaches carry around and voila; you’ve got all the answers to the test right in front of you.   If there was a red flashing light screaming at Shanahan to tell Ryan to let the play clock run down or telling him that the benefit of running the ball and burning clock increases their win probability by X percent, maybe he would have listened…

     
    Skipster
    Skipster
    Captain
    Participation Meter
    Joined: Nov, 2007
    Posts: 6427
    Posted: Feb. 7, 2017 - 1:47 PM ET #94

    https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/page/Barnwellx170206/anatomy-miracle-how-patriots-came-back-dead-super-bowl-li

    I don't know if you saw this, Van, but it's the clearest article I've read on the subject.
    Reply
    https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/page/Barnwellx170206/anatomy-miracle-how-patriots-came-back-dead-super-bowl-li

    I don't know if you saw this, Van, but it's the clearest article I've read on the subject.
     
    Skipster
    Skipster
    Captain
    Participation Meter
    Joined: Nov, 2007
    Posts: 6427
    Posted: Feb. 7, 2017 - 1:48 PM ET #95

    Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:


    It happens all the time in real life.  Pressure does strange things to peoples decision making abilities.

    You are looking for patterns in randomness.

    There is no way to script that.  I tell you what - I will give you a shot here (or any of the other "fix" people in this thread) - walk me through the detail of how a fix like this could happen.  DETAILS.  Who did it.  How they did it.



    crickets.
    Reply
    Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:


    It happens all the time in real life.  Pressure does strange things to peoples decision making abilities.

    You are looking for patterns in randomness.

    There is no way to script that.  I tell you what - I will give you a shot here (or any of the other "fix" people in this thread) - walk me through the detail of how a fix like this could happen.  DETAILS.  Who did it.  How they did it.



    crickets.
     
    vanzack
    vanzack
    Legend
    Participation Meter
    Joined: Nov, 2001
    Posts: 60107
    Posted: Feb. 7, 2017 - 2:51 PM ET #96

    Quote Originally Posted by Skipster:

    https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/page/Barnwellx170206/anatomy-miracle-how-patriots-came-back-dead-super-bowl-li

    I don't know if you saw this, Van, but it's the clearest article I've read on the subject.

    Great article.  Thanks for sharing Skipster.

    Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.
    Reply
    Quote Originally Posted by Skipster:

    https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/page/Barnwellx170206/anatomy-miracle-how-patriots-came-back-dead-super-bowl-li

    I don't know if you saw this, Van, but it's the clearest article I've read on the subject.

    Great article.  Thanks for sharing Skipster.

     
    vanzack
    vanzack
    Legend
    Participation Meter
    Joined: Nov, 2001
    Posts: 60107
    Posted: Feb. 7, 2017 - 3:02 PM ET #97

    From the article Skipster shared....

    After the 39-yard checkdown to a wide-open Freeman gave Atlanta first-and-10 at their own 49-yard line with 5:39 to go, Ryan snapped the ball with 20 seconds left on the play clock and handed the ball off for a loss of 1. The next play, the 27-yard deep out to Jones, was snapped with 13 seconds left on the clock.

    This is just unforgivable.  It is something that cannot be argued.  AND IT HAPPENS IN ALMOST EVERY NFL GAME.

    I am happy that all of this happened in such a high profile game so that it can be examined so closely by so many people - but to be honest - this stuff happens in Week 7 Colts vs Browns and nobody cares.  But it does happen.  All the time.
    Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.
    Reply
    From the article Skipster shared....

    After the 39-yard checkdown to a wide-open Freeman gave Atlanta first-and-10 at their own 49-yard line with 5:39 to go, Ryan snapped the ball with 20 seconds left on the play clock and handed the ball off for a loss of 1. The next play, the 27-yard deep out to Jones, was snapped with 13 seconds left on the clock.

    This is just unforgivable.  It is something that cannot be argued.  AND IT HAPPENS IN ALMOST EVERY NFL GAME.

    I am happy that all of this happened in such a high profile game so that it can be examined so closely by so many people - but to be honest - this stuff happens in Week 7 Colts vs Browns and nobody cares.  But it does happen.  All the time.
     
    vanzack
    vanzack
    Legend
    Participation Meter
    Joined: Nov, 2001
    Posts: 60107
    Posted: Feb. 7, 2017 - 3:06 PM ET #98

    This also....

    And BTW - this isnt just for this particular game.  I have started threads on this here - and been ranting about it forever - TOs should be used for stopping the clock only (and challenges).  You dont use it to avoid a 5 yard penalty in the third qtr.

    Quinn also didn't get much value for his timeouts. Atlanta had to use one timeout early in the third quarter when they were struggling to line up on defense before a third-and-long. A second timeout came after the first Matthews holding penalty toward the end of the third quarter on second-and-11, while the final timeout flew off the shelves when Quinn challenged the ridiculous Edelman catch. If Ryan hits that final drive with a minute and two timeouts, the playcalling would have been fundamentally different.
    Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.
    Reply
    This also....

    And BTW - this isnt just for this particular game.  I have started threads on this here - and been ranting about it forever - TOs should be used for stopping the clock only (and challenges).  You dont use it to avoid a 5 yard penalty in the third qtr.

    Quinn also didn't get much value for his timeouts. Atlanta had to use one timeout early in the third quarter when they were struggling to line up on defense before a third-and-long. A second timeout came after the first Matthews holding penalty toward the end of the third quarter on second-and-11, while the final timeout flew off the shelves when Quinn challenged the ridiculous Edelman catch. If Ryan hits that final drive with a minute and two timeouts, the playcalling would have been fundamentally different.
     
    Skipster
    Skipster
    Captain
    Participation Meter
    Joined: Nov, 2007
    Posts: 6427
    Posted: Feb. 7, 2017 - 3:07 PM ET #99

    Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:

    From the article Skipster shared....

    After the 39-yard checkdown to a wide-open Freeman gave Atlanta first-and-10 at their own 49-yard line with 5:39 to go, Ryan snapped the ball with 20 seconds left on the play clock and handed the ball off for a loss of 1. The next play, the 27-yard deep out to Jones, was snapped with 13 seconds left on the clock.

    This is just unforgivable.  It is something that cannot be argued.  AND IT HAPPENS IN ALMOST EVERY NFL GAME.

    I am happy that all of this happened in such a high profile game so that it can be examined so closely by so many people - but to be honest - this stuff happens in Week 7 Colts vs Browns and nobody cares.  But it does happen.  All the time.


    they did the same thing in the Seattle game but they got away with it. if you look at the last 5 minutes of the game, the similarities are crazy. up 16, Ryan is sacked, fumbles at his own 25. In this case, he recovered his own fumble. so they got very lucky there. still, after intercepting the Seahawks at their own 9 next possession, they continued to pass the ball, still hiked the ball with time on the clock, and guys were running out of bounds to stop the clock. no one noticed because they won. but it was exactly the same scenario. if you can find it, it's instructive to watch the 4th Q of that game. terrible coaching. they learned nothing from the experience and it cost them the SB.
    Reply
    Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:

    From the article Skipster shared....

    After the 39-yard checkdown to a wide-open Freeman gave Atlanta first-and-10 at their own 49-yard line with 5:39 to go, Ryan snapped the ball with 20 seconds left on the play clock and handed the ball off for a loss of 1. The next play, the 27-yard deep out to Jones, was snapped with 13 seconds left on the clock.

    This is just unforgivable.  It is something that cannot be argued.  AND IT HAPPENS IN ALMOST EVERY NFL GAME.

    I am happy that all of this happened in such a high profile game so that it can be examined so closely by so many people - but to be honest - this stuff happens in Week 7 Colts vs Browns and nobody cares.  But it does happen.  All the time.


    they did the same thing in the Seattle game but they got away with it. if you look at the last 5 minutes of the game, the similarities are crazy. up 16, Ryan is sacked, fumbles at his own 25. In this case, he recovered his own fumble. so they got very lucky there. still, after intercepting the Seahawks at their own 9 next possession, they continued to pass the ball, still hiked the ball with time on the clock, and guys were running out of bounds to stop the clock. no one noticed because they won. but it was exactly the same scenario. if you can find it, it's instructive to watch the 4th Q of that game. terrible coaching. they learned nothing from the experience and it cost them the SB.
     
     
    Skipster
    Skipster
    Captain
    Participation Meter
    Joined: Nov, 2007
    Posts: 6427
    Posted: Feb. 7, 2017 - 3:10 PM ET #100

    Van, I doubt you saw this, but I wrote about it just after the Seattle game. check this out.

    https://www.covers.com/postingforum/post01/showmessage.aspx?spt=21&sub=102379349
    Reply
    Van, I doubt you saw this, but I wrote about it just after the Seattle game. check this out.

    https://www.covers.com/postingforum/post01/showmessage.aspx?spt=21&sub=102379349
    All Forums | NFL Betting Forum
    «First Previous 12345 Next Last»

    Hot Forums IconHot Forum Topics

    • 🏈🏈🏈 Fubah2's risky CFB bets 300,314
    • BUCS/BEARS live in game comment welcome 901
    • I'm embarrassed for Trump supporters 63,573
    • NFL LOCKED IN! 113,661
    • Monday 11/09/2026 422
    • Buccs/Bears Generational play 3,008
    • PART DEUX 145
    • Florida Man Monday 1,978
    • Week 10 Money 12,656
    • Explain why Bears won't maul Bucs 1,803

    Warning - External Link

    Report User

    Thank you for reporting
    This content is abusive or harmful
    This post is spam
    An error has occurred
    This site is protected by reCAPTCHA and the Google Privacy Policy and Terms of Service apply.

    Delete Post

    Are you sure you would like to remove this post?

    Remove Thread

    Are you sure you would like to remove this thread?

    Scan Results

    Login/Register

    Happy to have you join the conversation. To do so, please login or create an account.
    Accounts are free and easy to create.

    Search


    Loading…

    Loading…

    About Us
    Contact Us
    Careers
    Our Team
    Brand
    Testimonials
    Betting Guides
    Sportsbook Reviews
    Betting News
    Podcasts
    Responsible Gambling
    Betting Sites
    US Betting Sites
    Canada Betting Sites
    Canada Casinos
    Best Betting Apps
    Contests
    Streak Survivor
    King of Covers
    Office Pools
    The Covers community has
    810,221
    lifetime members worldwide
    Join our community today
    Covers 30 Years Logo Established in 1995,
    Covers is the world
    leader in sports
    betting information.
    21+
    Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER
    Help Privacy Privacy Choices Terms of Service Cookies Sitemap Forum
    YouTube logo
    Facebook logo
    Twitter logo
    Instagram logo
    LinkedIn logo
    Google News logo
    Covers is verified safe by:
    Evalon Logo Logo GPWA Logo GDPR logo Logo GeoTrust logo Logo
    Covers Logo
    Copyright © 1995 - 2026 Genius Sports. All Rights Reserved.
    If you choose to make use of any information on this website including online sports betting services from any websites that may be featured on this website, we strongly recommend that you carefully check your local laws before doing so.It is your sole responsibility to understand your local laws and observe them strictly.Covers does not provide any advice or guidance as to the legality of online sports betting or other online gambling activities within your jurisdiction and you are responsible for complying with laws that are applicable to you in your relevant locality.Covers disclaims all liability associated with your use of this website and use of any information contained on it.As a condition of using this website, you agree to hold the owner of this website harmless from any claims arising from your use of any services on any third party website that may be featured by Covers.