Bad Home teams over a td DOG

for the last 2 years are 14-1. Will be on every single one this year.

season>=2023 and line<-7 and A and total<48.5

Short away favs from (1 to 4.5) where the total is greater than 45 played on a fast track (artificial) are a stunning 22-5 ATS

over the last 2 years. Unsustainable outlier or a tasty emerging trend, your call...lol

season>=2023 and total>45 and surface=artificial and AF and week<16 and -1>line>-4.5

look to fade all HOME teams favored by less than 8 pts where the total is greater than 48 in weeks 2 thru 15.

This beauty is (6-27) a stunning 82%. This angle is 13-0 in weeks 2-7.

..season>=2024 and total>48 and H and line>-8 and 1<week<16

..season>=2024 and p:margin-op:margin>line and D and 19>week>10 and 48.5>total>40.5.............(16-2) over

giants, panthers, browns, and titans first ones off the top of my head

That 14-1 is the OU results for the road teams.

Don't the players matter ? I think our resident NFL expert here on covers has learned an important lesson this year that players 

( should)  matter.... and I'm talking specifically about the QB position.  You folks that run these queries take into no consideration the most important player on the field.. 

Don't ya think? 

season>=2023 and line<-7 and A and total<48.5...(6-14) ATS  and (18-2) O/U

@Rush51

You folks that run these queries take into no consideration the most important player on the field.. 

Don't ya think? 

certainly there are holes in some of our queries.  The more ppl we have using the language the broader our results.  Want to join and add qb stats to the searches be my guest.  

As for me I know the qb and roster enough to eliminate some teams.  If one of the teams shows on a query I can eliminate said team.  Said team will have to win and cover to be able to back. Also bad teams (Carolina in this case ). Were terrible to start the year but in the 2nd half of the season were playable.  Have to know team back history as well.  A bad team will improve and as the season progresses the lines will increase if their first half of the season was trash.  

A team that is always favored and a team that is always a dog are the most difficult to find “situations”.  If one looks at some of my postings, I have exploited the early season cases for dogs on the rise.  

Agree. For me, regression is real ,regardless of the play of the qb. I like being contrarian and love the value when a teams" qb goes off. Give me the shit team

against the hot qb.

[Quote: Originally Posted by spottie2935]@Rush51   You folks that run these queries take into no consideration the most important player on the field..  Don't ya think?  certainly there are holes in some of our queries.  The more ppl we have using the language the broader our results.  Want to join and add qb stats to the searches be my guest.[/Quote]

I appreciate it,      but I don't get into running queries,etc... It's just not part of my game...  But I do start and end my analysis on any game with the QBs... and I "blackball" a certain number of teams simply because their QB play was just so criminal last year ... LV, NYG, CLE, TENN off the top of my head. 

There are some important parallels to sports gambling & stock investing (and making money in general from investing)..   And it is this.  You can do yourself a lot of good by staying away from bad QBs... and bad stocks in the stock market.  Making money is just as much (if not more) a part of avoiding bad situations (i.e. losing less) , as it is making money w/ good opportunities.  

Certainly,  adding a piece of QB data could be a helpful component in weeding truly bad QB. 

What do Aiden O'Connell, Will Levis,  Daniel Jones, DeShaun Watson,  Jameis Winston have in common ( as an example) .   I know they are all poor QBs and/ or poor decision- makers ( i.e. prone to TOs), just from my eye test..    Perhaps there's  a common thread to distill into a helpful add-on to a query.. perhaps a simple TD vs. INT argument is a start...

Sometimes fading those good QBs playing well is the profitable thing to do as this query attests:

p:PY > 310 and pp:PY > 310 and HF

SU:  115-50-1 (6.4,69.7%)

ATS:  70-90-6 (-0.9,43.8%)

Home favorites off two games wherein they gained over 310 passing yards cover just 43.8% of the time.  There were 3 games in the 2024 season and Burrow, Tagovailoa and Josh Allen all failed to cover.

Now I do not consider this a strong query because the average fading margin is less than one point; that is not playable in my mind.  I would just use this query to support other stronger queries and inject a note of caution when revered QBs look unstoppable.

need to save and keep threads like this bumped for the upcoming season

Yup. If the favorite has a sub par rushing attack, the play becomes even stronger

Great point on Carolina.. I noticed this as well.  Something seemed to have 'clicked' with Bryce Young after he got demoted early in the season, as he played much better to close out the season.  

@Rush51

 I agree. Strong is strong. In all aspects. 

week 1 fade every favored playoff team amazinf losers ats