Bears ml just might be the best bet on the board in week 18

Bears are guaranteed Carolina's #1 pick and are likely to draft a qb to replace Justin Fields. This is his swan song so to speak and will likely be his last game as a Bear.

Chicago almost hit 200 rushing yards vs the Falcons. I would not be surprised if the Bears have similar success running the ball against the Packers.

Packers were eliminated from the playoff race last year with Aaron Rodgers at the helm losing the final game of the season. Often history repeats itself.

The Bears season is over after week 18. They would like nothing more than to knock the Packers out of the playoffs. For the Bears, this is their Super Bowl.

Going all the way back to 2016 the Bad News Bears have only beaten the Packers once... they are 1-14!!!

Going all the way back to 2019 the Bears have lost a whopping 9 games in a row to the Packers.

On Sunday I believe that streak ends.

The Bears traded for Montez Sweat mid-season and it has completely transformed the identity of their defense and this team as a whole.

Sweat played minimal snaps in his first game as a Bear in a 24-17 loss to the Saints in week 9. Through the first 9 weeks of the season the Bears were a mediocre 2-7.

Since that game the Bears are 5-2 and have been on a defensive tear... if not for blowing a late lead against the Lions and a late lead against the Browns the Bears would be on a 7-0 heater and have a spot in the playoffs.

In week 1 the Packers beat the Bears 38-20 but this is not the same Bears defense in any way, shape, or form. The first 4 games of the season the Bears defense played terrible across the board and were a bottom 5 defense at best. Since week 10 the Bears have been a top tier defense. What a difference having an elite defensive end can make.

Bears defensive #s since week 10:

Carolina 13 - 16 Bears
CAR had 2.7 yards per rush
CAR had 43 rushing yards
CAR had 185 pass yards
Bears got 0 interceptions
Bears got 0 fumble recover
Bears got 3 sacks

Bears 26 - 31 Lions
DET had 5.2 yards per rush
DET had 115 rushing yards
DET had 236 passing yards
Bears got 3 interceptions
Bears got 1 fumble recover
Bears got 2 sacks

Bears 12 - Vikings 10
MIN had 4.3 yards per rush
MIN had 73 rushing yards
MIN had 185 passing yards
Bears got 4 interceptions
Bears got 0 fumble recover
Bears got 2 sacks

Lions 13 - Bears 28
DET had 5.8 yards per rush
DET had 140 rushing yards
DET had 161 passing yards
Bears got 2 interceptions
Bears got 1 fumble recover
Bears got 4 sacks

Bears 17 - Browns 20
CLE had 1.6 yards per rush
CLE had 29 rushing yards
CLE had 374 passing yards
Bears got 3 interceptions
Bears got 0 fumble recover
Bears got 4 sacks
Bears got 1 int for TD

Cardinals 16 - Bears 27
ARI had 4.7 yards per rush
ARI had 93 rushing yards
ARI had 230 passing yards
Bears got 0 interceptions
Bears got 0 fumble recover
Bears got 2 sacks

Falcons 17 - Bears 37
ATL had 5.6 yards per rush
ATL had 134 rushing yards
ATL had 173 passing yards
Bears got 4 interceptions
Bears got 0 fumble recover
Bears got 2 sacks

While the Bears rush yard avg allowed has been on the rise so have their defensive takeaways across the board.

Bears have 16 interceptions in their last 6 games... roughly a 3 interception per game average.

Defensive pressure causes interceptions and lots of them. Love is long overdue to throw a pick or two. 

Good luck whichever way you decide to bet this one but I am confident the Bears are the right side.

My score prediction

Bears 24
Packers 20

Carolina can win  and still get number pick 

For what it’s worth. Bears are healthy. Packers are not.

Agree 100%.

Fantastic post. 

Falcons fan here- the Bears thrashing the Falcons means nothing IMO. Bears are playing better but Packers need this game to get into playoffs. I believe the Packers will get the W at Home. Bears end season with a LOSS then they trade Fields to Falcons. 

Packers 31

Bears  17

Right. 

Now tell me how the Packers win this game.

Thanks for that.

Was very surprised at what I found... 16 interceptions by an nfl team in a 6 game span is a crazy stat anyway you slice it.

And a 9 game losing streak vs a division team is unheard of.

Bears have all the motivation they could possibly need:

1. underdog status > majority think the Packers already won

2. end the streak > Bears vs Packers has been a heated rivalry since forever and a 9 game losing streak against the Packers quite frankly is embarassing

3. spoiler > knock the Packers out of the playoffs

4. Aaron Rodgers challenged the Bears > he said if they can't beat the Packers then there is no Bears/Packers rivalry

5. Justin Fields > needs to prove he is that guy, this goes back to what I mentioned earlier that I strongly believe the Bears as a team are going to ball out and treat this game as if it is the Super Bowl
 

I expect this to be a close game either way but I'm sure the Bears would like nothing more than to go into Green Bay and blow out the Packers in their own stadium.

Aaron Rodgers sold his ownership interest in "Da Bears" to Jordan Love at the begining of the Season

 Rushing Defenses

 Bears have a top 5 run defense allowing only 3.7 yards per carry although they have been gouged by some long runs as of late.

Packers run defense is near the bottom of the nfl allowing 4.5 yards per carry.

A 0.8 ypc differential between these two teams can not be understated.

Rushing Offenses

The Bears have Justin Fields and Khalil Herbert running the ball.

Justin Fields is an elite rushing qb. Fields averages 5.4 ypc with blazing speed.

Herbert is averaging 4.9 ypc on the year and roughly 5 ypc across a 3 year span. He has been an under the radar elite running back since he came into the league. Herbert ran the ball roughly 20x in each of the last two games. This being the Bears final game of the season I don't see this one being any different.

The Packers mainly split rushing duties between their two RBs: Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon.

Aaron Jones averages a respectable 4.5 ypc.

AJ Dillon averages a mere 3.4 ypc in large part because he is a power back weighing in at 250lbs.

Jordan Love 2023 stats
(he played in 16/16 games)

63% completion rate
3843 passing yards
30 TDs
11 INTs
248 rushing yards
5.3 rushing average
4 rushing touchdowns
29 sacks

Justin Fields 2023 stats
(he played in 12/16 games)

61% completion rate
2414 passing yards
16 TDs
9 INTs
630 rushing yards
5.4 rushing average
4 rushing touchdowns
39 sacks

On the season the Bears lead the nfl forcing 22 interceptions.

The Packers have a grand total of 7 interceptions and are tied for 2nd lowest # in the nfl.

The Packers have 40 sacks on the year while the Bears have only 29 sacks. A majority of the Bears sacks came in the last 7 games. Why is that? Montez Sweat.

In the last 7 games the Bears pass rush has helped the team accumulate 19 sacks and 16 interceptions.

*The Bears defensive effort against the Vikings back on November 27 was something that had to be seen. Dobbs was never the same after that game.

Excellent post and information here. The Bears are a team on the rise, should be contenders in the years to come. Going to be stacked with all this draft capital. 

In the finale I think the Bears win 24-16

The Bears Defense turned things around in the 2nd Half of the season..GL 

If the Bears are smart they will swap their #1 pick for NE's#3 or ARI's#4.

Then draft Marvin Harrison or Michael Penix.

There is way too much potentially generational talent at the top of this year's draft. WAS, NE, ARI, and the NYG would be stupid to try to win their final game.

Don't get me wrong, I don't like Packers or Bears. I was in the Georgia Dome when we throttled GB in Championship game for 2016 season....

Jordan Love is confident and they are going to win this game at home. EVERYONE is on the Bears too. Crushing the Falcons isn't a big deal- Falcons and Art Smith are lost I think the Bears fall back to the first half season play in this game. Also, when is the last time the Bears beat Green Bay? Just saying.

31-17 Pack

@ATLBraves21

Bears could not have played worse in their week 1 matchup.

The Bears 9 game losing streak has to end sometime. Perfect spot.

Sometimes EVERYONE is right.

@M-M

 i was looking at that game. alot of people are taking tampa bay -4.5. carolina is at home too

GL on your plays & Happy New Years  @Pablo989 

 Da Bears are on my radar I like it!

1. Ok I agree, the Falcons aren't that good. I haven't liked em all year. But if we're going to play the game of "who they beat", then consider this.

Were you impressed with the Packers 33-10 win vs the Vikings? Vs Jaren Hall in the 1H? A team reeling for a qb like blood since Cousins went down. The game before that, they barely put away the Panthers, 33-30. The game before that, Baker Mayfield posted the first ever perfect passer rating at Lambeau as a visitor. The game before that, they lost 22-24 vs a Devito led Giants. If you haven't watched him, he has some wheels and scrambling ability. Enter Justin Fields.

2. Why do you think that the Bears "fall to the 1H season play in this game"? That doesn't make sense. Why, just because?

Just to add a little bit, if you haven't watched the Packers play this year, they might have the worst special teams unit in the league. They aren't well coached, they commit penalties at the worst of times. I know a lot of Packer fans, they've been calling for the head of DC Joe Barry for at least 2 years. He's not a good coach.

All the pressure is on the Packers in this game. The Bears will play free. And I can tell you that they are in an ultimate groove right now.

Just something to think about.

Matt LaFleur is 9-0 against the Bears and every win has been by 7+ points ..Seems like a close game Sunday though and I wouldn't be surprised if the Bears won..

I guess that’s why they play the game and we will know more about 6 pm cst on Sunday. 

Go Packers! 

@undermysac

 Some great points you have made, yes, Joe Barry the DC will be gone, LaFleur has been on him to and involved with making some defensive adjustments, the defense has been poor despite having talent.  GB has been erratic, beating playoff teams like KC, Detroit, Rams and then giving games away vs NYG and Raiders to name a few. It should be a great rivalry game, the Bears are playing better than week 1 but still, the Packers are in their head and it won’t come easy in Lambeau as the Bears don’t travel well. 

Bears Offense 4.6 RYPA

Packers Defense 4.5 RYPA

@Pablo989

 Great read 

Good  info...............

Plus division road teams are 53% past I think 5 years.

And teams eliminated playing a team who is not ...........60% since I think 1990.

Bears are the long term winner in this spot on top of this good info.