Bills - The Matt Milano Effect

Bills 12-0 with LB Matt Milano playing, 2-3 without, including playoffs.

Bills scored 378 points (31.5ppg) and allowed 223 points (18.6ppg) in the 12 games with Milano.

Bills scored 135 points (26.8ppg) and allowed 151 points (30.2ppg) in the 5 games without Milano.

Over the full 18 games including the playoffs, the #1 ranked Rams defense allowed 19.33ppg.

So the Bills scoring defense is actually better on a per game basis than the Rams scoring defense when Matt Milano plays.

27 17
35 32
30 23
18 10
24 21
34 24
26 15
48 19
38 9
56 26
27 24
17 3

12-0 378 31.5 223 18.6

16 42
17 26
44 34
30 32
27 17

2-3 135 26.8 151 30.2

Is he playing this weekend?

I thought this was going to be a thread about Andy Reid’s record after consuming several Milano Pizzas. 

A lot of other defenders were hurt the same time as Milano...

I’m sure the Chiefs are shaking in their boots. 

On the other hand, if it wasn’t for Milano I’m sure old man Rivers and the Colts would have piled up 800 yards, instead of the measly 480. 

Fook I just lost a big write up... 

footnotes...

Milano is very good, top 5 in pass coverage in league, don’t underestimate his impact from not playing in the first matchup... Colts killed them with shallow and middle crossing routes... can’t wait to see what Andy has in store for Kelce, Tyreek... and Sammy is looking like he’s gonna play, first time playing against his original team that drafted him.  
Big Red’s game plan here should be completely different from earlier this season.  Gonna be fun 

@begginerboy

 .I'll bet Andy could do some serious damage at a Pizza buffet! "You go home now big boy!"

The Bills faced Phillip Rivers who looks like he's shot putting a fucking cannon ball every time he throws.

And they faced Lamar Jackson who's the most FLUKEY MVP winner of all time, and lead the worst passing attack in the NFL this year.

Now they'll have to face Patrick Mahomes, the best TE in football, & the fastest WR in the NFL in their own house. 

It's a tough task but this line still looks short to me, and it's not because Mahomes injury. The books know for a fact Mahomes will play or else the line wouldn't have come out so soon. For that reason, and the Bills being the hottest team in the NFL, Bills ML is the play. 

Chiefs aren't as good or motivated as 2019. Teams generally don't go to back to back Super Bowls. 

The line is -3 because that is where the books will get 50/50 action. It’s not a trick. Bills backers are jumping all over this line. You have a team that hasn’t covered s h I t for 8 weeks against a team that has covered nearly everything, where would you put the line? And that’s to say nothing of the Mahomes injury.

interesting 

@begginerboy

Good point. I just think it's weird Bills were catching 5.5 to KC at home, lost by more than one score, & now they're only getting +3 at Kansas City. I know that was back in October & things have changed. But the Chiefs have still only lost one out of their last 25 games w/ Mahomes at the helm. Feels to me like the books want people to bet the Super Bowl Champs & Mahomes at home and lay 3 or less, & it'll be a blood bath. 

Said the same thing last week when the Saints destroyed the Bucs 72-26 & were only laying 3 at home. Won on the Bucs ML. 

I try to look at what the line is trying to tell me. The other night Kansas was catching 9 at Baylor.  Felt too easy to take Kansas, so I took Baylor & they drilled a 3 at the buzzer to only lose by 8. I digress. 

All 3 of the BILLS losses they were hampered with injuries 

BILLS were starting guys off the street the last time they faced KC ...

STILL were only down 6 late ...

Are you going all in on the Chiefs ???

Kemp is one of my all time fans...He would have been hurting feelings in today's Microsoft NBA ...

Milano is earning big bucks via his play on the field...

On all 22 he is one of the top 3 cover LB in the league ...

BILLS are about to pay him and let Edmunds walk ...shhhhh .  For real though....

Not as good?  Yeah not too much argument there when looking at it on paper...biggest difference in this team is that they had a chip on their shoulder from the they lost the AFC title game the year before.  

Not as motivated?  I laugh when I see this comment made....team has lost 1 game in last 25 with Mahomes starting.... motivated to cover DD spreads NO, not so much...but WIN ?  How can you argue that this team isn't motivated to WIN.  

Teams generally don't go back to back, you are correct.... Teams also don't generally have Patrick Mahomes playing QB either 

Mahomes will be ready to go. And they may have Clyde Hermaine Edwards and Sammy Watkins back, they both practiced yesterday although Darrel Williams performed admirably in Edwards absence on Sunday, 16 carries for 78 yds, he's a load. Had Mahomes played and been healthy the entire 4 quarters, they cover the spread, hands down vs CLE. Luv what the Bills have done and they should be right where they're at...playing for the AFC championship. Do they have a shot at winning? Sure they do. But the Chiefs are just a different animal and it appears they're getting healthier, Clyde and Watkins are integral parts of this offense, like KC needs more help. No, the Bills run likely ends Sunday and weather providing from an offensive perspective this may be one of the more exciting games of the year. 54 for a total is well within reach. Let's just hope everyone stays healthy, in particular those 2 young dazzling QBs, who as I mentioned in another thread are " irreplaceable."

           MATT IS NO FACTOR, BUFFALO BEEN PLAYING WELL SINCE THE HAIL MARY AGAINST CARDS, KC IS STRUGGLING GETTIN BYE THIS WEEK IT ENDS 4 THEM BUFFALO WINS A CLOSE ONE BOOK ITTTTT

@mrusso

 yessir 

That would be a big mistake by Brandon Beane to let Tremaine Edmunds walk. Tremaine is the Heart & Soul of that Bills defense!

So do we know if Mahomes is playing this weekend? I know he had a concussion, but what's his foot injury status?  If he isn't mobile it's a whole different kettle of fish.

Probably Bills or nothing for me. Bills are on fire and KC doesn't cover ATS much I thought that'd change kast week and it probably would have IF Mahomes didn't get banged up.  But he did and you would have to think he's not going to be 100% this weekend.

LB Rankings: Matt Milano...googled top NFL Linebackers...first page of google results:

PFF - 16th (mentioned he was 4th best in coverage over 2018-2019 but other parts of game needed improvement)

ProFootballReport - 22nd

ProFootballNetwork - 23rd (Edmunds 11th)

BleacherReport - Not in Top 20 (not even honorable mention)

CBSSports - Top 10 only - Tremaine Edmunds 10th

AthlonSports - 30th (Edmunds 16th)

TouchdownWire - Top 11 only - Milano and Edmunds received honorable mention)

No skin in this game; I get we all like our hometown heroes...this has some objective value...lots of write-ups.

What you point out is interesting and I appreciate you sharing it. However, it gives yours truly a chance to share the importance of going beyond the numbers. Yes the Matt Milano Bills are better than the Milano less Bills. But the impact is not as big as you mention and they are nowhere near the Rams D´s level. 

Look at the opponents that Milano faced in the regular season: Jets, Rams, Raiders, Jets, Pats, Niners, Steelers, Broncos, Pats and Dolphins. 

Now look at the opponents that the Bills faced without Milano: Dolphins, Titans (3rd ranked Offense), Chiefs (1st ranked Offense), Cardinals (6th ranked offense), Seahawks, Chargers (9th ranked offense). 

So an alternative and to my eyes, a more accurate hypothesis, would be that the Bills better results in the 10 games played by Milano, would be that the opponents offenses were exponentially worse, than the opponents they faced when Milano did play. THE FOUR BEST OFFENSES THAT THE BILLS FACED ALL SEASON, WERE AMONG THOSE 6 GAMES THAT MILANO MISSED. 

This is the furthest the BILLS will go as a PLAYOFF team. Josh Allen is currently 2-1 in the playoffs. Going up against an 2018 MVP , 3X PRO BOWLER, and SUPER BOWL MVP is P.Mahomes. His overall stats will be 2-2 after this SUNDAY loss! 


We will see more BILLS in the AFC playoffs, but the game needs Allen to evolve. It won't be this year though.