St. Louis play: This play comes from my math model and a situational opportunity. My math model made it St. Louis +7. 10.5 is good value. The market is overreacting to the last few weeks. Which do you think is more true... that they are by far the best team in the NFL or that they've overachieved and been in some great spots recently? SF was in a horrible spot last week and it showed. Seattle has been the beneficiary of a few of these situations of late, and the linesmakers/market are overreacting. They aren't as good as they have looked. They've very good, but not THAT good. I also look to play on teams that seemingly don't have motivation (StL) against teams that do (Seattle) because people overreact to that angle as well, providing value on the other side. It's also a slight let down spot for them and I have a nice angle based on their last few games.
As for Washington, the play is based on my power ratings and my math model. Wash -3 suggests that these 2 teams are dead even and they are just giving Wash 3 points for being at home. I have Wash rated 4 points better than NYG on a neutral, which makes it Wash -7 based on my power ratings. My math model makes it Wash -7.5. A play at -3 is a no brainer. The Giants are living off of reputation here, when in reality they aren't that good and are nowhere near the caliber of last year's team that made the run. No real situational edge here, but the numbers are enough to make this a solid play.
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Europa -
St. Louis play: This play comes from my math model and a situational opportunity. My math model made it St. Louis +7. 10.5 is good value. The market is overreacting to the last few weeks. Which do you think is more true... that they are by far the best team in the NFL or that they've overachieved and been in some great spots recently? SF was in a horrible spot last week and it showed. Seattle has been the beneficiary of a few of these situations of late, and the linesmakers/market are overreacting. They aren't as good as they have looked. They've very good, but not THAT good. I also look to play on teams that seemingly don't have motivation (StL) against teams that do (Seattle) because people overreact to that angle as well, providing value on the other side. It's also a slight let down spot for them and I have a nice angle based on their last few games.
As for Washington, the play is based on my power ratings and my math model. Wash -3 suggests that these 2 teams are dead even and they are just giving Wash 3 points for being at home. I have Wash rated 4 points better than NYG on a neutral, which makes it Wash -7 based on my power ratings. My math model makes it Wash -7.5. A play at -3 is a no brainer. The Giants are living off of reputation here, when in reality they aren't that good and are nowhere near the caliber of last year's team that made the run. No real situational edge here, but the numbers are enough to make this a solid play.
St. Louis play: This play comes from my math model and a situational opportunity. My math model made it St. Louis +7. 10.5 is good value. The market is overreacting to the last few weeks. Which do you think is more true... that they are by far the best team in the NFL or that they've overachieved and been in some great spots recently? SF was in a horrible spot last week and it showed. Seattle has been the beneficiary of a few of these situations of late, and the linesmakers/market are overreacting. They aren't as good as they have looked. They've very good, but not THAT good. I also look to play on teams that seemingly don't have motivation (StL) against teams that do (Seattle) because people overreact to that angle as well, providing value on the other side. It's also a slight let down spot for them and I have a nice angle based on their last few games.
As for Washington, the play is based on my power ratings and my math model. Wash -3 suggests that these 2 teams are dead even and they are just giving Wash 3 points for being at home. I have Wash rated 4 points better than NYG on a neutral, which makes it Wash -7 based on my power ratings. My math model makes it Wash -7.5. A play at -3 is a no brainer. The Giants are living off of reputation here, when in reality they aren't that good and are nowhere near the caliber of last year's team that made the run. No real situational edge here, but the numbers are enough to make this a solid play.
Understood on your take of Rams. Good luck!
Redskins are playing against Cowboys this weekend not the Giants, aren't they?
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Quote Originally Posted by bluecheese:
Europa -
St. Louis play: This play comes from my math model and a situational opportunity. My math model made it St. Louis +7. 10.5 is good value. The market is overreacting to the last few weeks. Which do you think is more true... that they are by far the best team in the NFL or that they've overachieved and been in some great spots recently? SF was in a horrible spot last week and it showed. Seattle has been the beneficiary of a few of these situations of late, and the linesmakers/market are overreacting. They aren't as good as they have looked. They've very good, but not THAT good. I also look to play on teams that seemingly don't have motivation (StL) against teams that do (Seattle) because people overreact to that angle as well, providing value on the other side. It's also a slight let down spot for them and I have a nice angle based on their last few games.
As for Washington, the play is based on my power ratings and my math model. Wash -3 suggests that these 2 teams are dead even and they are just giving Wash 3 points for being at home. I have Wash rated 4 points better than NYG on a neutral, which makes it Wash -7 based on my power ratings. My math model makes it Wash -7.5. A play at -3 is a no brainer. The Giants are living off of reputation here, when in reality they aren't that good and are nowhere near the caliber of last year's team that made the run. No real situational edge here, but the numbers are enough to make this a solid play.
Understood on your take of Rams. Good luck!
Redskins are playing against Cowboys this weekend not the Giants, aren't they?
Redskins are playing against Cowboys this weekend not the Giants, aren't they?
LOL oops. The numbers I typed are correct but yes they are obviously playing Dallas. My power ratings make it -7, my model makes it -7.5. Don't know what I was thinking answering your question based on them playing NYG.
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Quote Originally Posted by Europa:
Understood on your take of Rams. Good luck!
Redskins are playing against Cowboys this weekend not the Giants, aren't they?
LOL oops. The numbers I typed are correct but yes they are obviously playing Dallas. My power ratings make it -7, my model makes it -7.5. Don't know what I was thinking answering your question based on them playing NYG.
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