Posted:
#1
2011-2012 NFL Record:
5 - 11 @ 20% for -7.1 Units
Week 3
#7: Washington Redskins +3.5
The 'Skins have had much success covering the spread in this rivalry lately. Tonight, I expect them to do the same if not win this one outright. Dallas is banged up with Romo, Jones, and Austin having serious injuries. Even though Romo and Jones will play, the loss of Austin really hurts, as he's Dallas' best offensive weapon. Dez Bryant will play in this one but he's also at less than 100%. Felix Jones is one hard hit away from leaving the game and even when healthy he's been struggling to run the ball. I expect Dallas to rely on the pass to the move the ball effectively (as they've done in the first 2 games) but injuries to their O-line (Costa, their center is playing with an injured knee, and Nagy, a 7th round draft pick this year, missed last week with an injury) will make Romo susceptible to pressure as Washington has 7 sacks through 2 games. With all these things considered, I don't see a very aggressive game-plan for Dallas to start out the game. They'll try to run the ball more in the first half but 'Skins' D is getting Landry back for this one, and I expect him to greatly improve their run-D going forward. Speaking of 'getting a player back on D', Josh Wilson is listed as probable and will start after getting banged up against 'Zona. He's a solid corner and should keep Dallas' secondary receivers at bay. (I expect Hall to guard Bryant). Speaking of Hall, he made some statements this week which Dallas could use as 'motivation'. Even though I don't like that, he did put himself in a position to 'perform' and I do expect him to step-up his game in this one. On the other side, we have an improved Washington O going up against a pretty solid Dallas D. I know Dallas has been excellent against the run, but their secondary is the 'weak' link here. Getting Newman back is not really a concern as he's a marginal player at this point of his career. Washington has a number of weapons in Moss, Cooley, Gaffney, and Armstrong. Their main one though is Fred Davis, who has been emerging as one of the best TE's over the past couple of years. Outside of Ware I don't see any of the other linebackers being able to keep up with him, and it's a great mismatch in Washington's favor if a safety is covering him. I do see Redskins running a number of plays in a 2-TE set, which will reduce the 'aggressiveness' of this Dallas front-7, as they'll have to honor the running game as well as focus on containing both Cooley and Davis at the same time. Redskins moved the ball very well last week against Arizona, but 2 first-half INT's by Grossman (both were on Arizona's side of the field, and one was in the end-zone) stalled a couple of drives. Grossman has had success against Cowboys last year and even though Dallas' defensive scheme is different in 2011, the personnel is similar. Even though Cowboys' D is a step-up in class from Arizona's, I do expect Grossman to be more efficient in this one, use a balanced offensive game-plan, and have success moving the ball.
Overall, Cowboys are probably the more talented team, but with a number of injuries to some 'key' players, the inexperience of their O-line, and drastic improvement of Redskins from 2010, I have these teams being pretty much 'equal' in this contest. Actually, I think Washington is slightly better as they get Landry back tonight. Final score: 24-23 Washington.
good luck!
5 - 11 @ 20% for -7.1 Units
Week 3
#7: Washington Redskins +3.5
The 'Skins have had much success covering the spread in this rivalry lately. Tonight, I expect them to do the same if not win this one outright. Dallas is banged up with Romo, Jones, and Austin having serious injuries. Even though Romo and Jones will play, the loss of Austin really hurts, as he's Dallas' best offensive weapon. Dez Bryant will play in this one but he's also at less than 100%. Felix Jones is one hard hit away from leaving the game and even when healthy he's been struggling to run the ball. I expect Dallas to rely on the pass to the move the ball effectively (as they've done in the first 2 games) but injuries to their O-line (Costa, their center is playing with an injured knee, and Nagy, a 7th round draft pick this year, missed last week with an injury) will make Romo susceptible to pressure as Washington has 7 sacks through 2 games. With all these things considered, I don't see a very aggressive game-plan for Dallas to start out the game. They'll try to run the ball more in the first half but 'Skins' D is getting Landry back for this one, and I expect him to greatly improve their run-D going forward. Speaking of 'getting a player back on D', Josh Wilson is listed as probable and will start after getting banged up against 'Zona. He's a solid corner and should keep Dallas' secondary receivers at bay. (I expect Hall to guard Bryant). Speaking of Hall, he made some statements this week which Dallas could use as 'motivation'. Even though I don't like that, he did put himself in a position to 'perform' and I do expect him to step-up his game in this one. On the other side, we have an improved Washington O going up against a pretty solid Dallas D. I know Dallas has been excellent against the run, but their secondary is the 'weak' link here. Getting Newman back is not really a concern as he's a marginal player at this point of his career. Washington has a number of weapons in Moss, Cooley, Gaffney, and Armstrong. Their main one though is Fred Davis, who has been emerging as one of the best TE's over the past couple of years. Outside of Ware I don't see any of the other linebackers being able to keep up with him, and it's a great mismatch in Washington's favor if a safety is covering him. I do see Redskins running a number of plays in a 2-TE set, which will reduce the 'aggressiveness' of this Dallas front-7, as they'll have to honor the running game as well as focus on containing both Cooley and Davis at the same time. Redskins moved the ball very well last week against Arizona, but 2 first-half INT's by Grossman (both were on Arizona's side of the field, and one was in the end-zone) stalled a couple of drives. Grossman has had success against Cowboys last year and even though Dallas' defensive scheme is different in 2011, the personnel is similar. Even though Cowboys' D is a step-up in class from Arizona's, I do expect Grossman to be more efficient in this one, use a balanced offensive game-plan, and have success moving the ball.
Overall, Cowboys are probably the more talented team, but with a number of injuries to some 'key' players, the inexperience of their O-line, and drastic improvement of Redskins from 2010, I have these teams being pretty much 'equal' in this contest. Actually, I think Washington is slightly better as they get Landry back tonight. Final score: 24-23 Washington.
good luck!
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