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Browns need a new coach and niners are Foreal

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Posted: #51
Thanks AFN.

Saved my day once again 
 
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Posted: #52

GLclover AFN always an interesting read indeed mah man peace_5you got my ATTENTIONan_cheers

What do you call an Eternal Optimist? An accordion with a beeper!
 
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Posted: #53
Quote Originally Posted by AFNfootballnerd:


Game intrigued me but can’t make a play on it because the program I use has numbers inflated due to Mahomes first games of the season. Man I wish Mahomes was playing tonight.  If the numbers aren’t there on the game I’ll pass...

Makes sense. Great stuff being disciplined. 

Curious though, 
1- with mahomes what was your calculated line? 
And 
2- what’s your calculated dropoff from
Mahomes to Matt Moore?

Appreciated in advance. 
 
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Posted: #54
Quote Originally Posted by pederson16:


Makes sense. Great stuff being disciplined. 

Curious though, 
1- with mahomes what was your calculated line? 
And 
2- what’s your calculated dropoff from
Mahomes to Matt Moore?

Appreciated in advance. 

Mahomes 45% with Mahomes out that’s a 20% drop to 25%

Rodgers 30% with Adams out 

So sitting at a 5% advantage and laying -5?

Will note the results should chiefs cover for future plays 





 
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Posted: #55
Quote Originally Posted by pederson16:


Makes sense. Great stuff being disciplined. 

Curious though, 
1- with mahomes what was your calculated line? 
And 
2- what’s your calculated dropoff from
Mahomes to Matt Moore?

Appreciated in advance. 

So to give you an idea of calculating if it’s a play...if Green Bay was laying -7.5 at home with just a 5% advantage I would have taken the +7.5. 
 
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Posted: #56
Any action tonight AFN? Or we’re onto week 9?
 
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Posted: #57

The Niners have been great for bettors but I wouldn’t say they’re for real until they prove who they are this second half of the season. The Niners have played average teams with average or young quarterbacks with the exception of Rivers who’s clearly past his prime. They haven’t faced any of the elite teams or QBs. They haven’t seen Wilson(twice), Rodgers, Jackson, Brees, Ryan and Goff. I’ll bet they lose 2-3 of those games. 

“A Fool And His Money Are Soon Parted” -Thomas Tusser 1557
 
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Posted: #58
Quote Originally Posted by SuperSlapem:

The Niners have been great for bettors but I wouldn’t say they’re for real until they prove who they are this second half of the season. The Niners have played average teams with average or young quarterbacks with the exception of Rivers who’s clearly past his prime. They haven’t faced any of the elite teams or QBs. They haven’t seen Wilson(twice), Rodgers, Jackson, Brees, Ryan and Goff. I’ll bet they lose 2-3 of those games. 


You Mentioned Goff? Which brings up a good point because I had this Niners game capped for this Thursday night against the cardinals based off of the Rams game. The Cardinals have the same exact numbers offensive wise as the Rams according to my program. Now the cardinals defense is ranked worse than the chargers sitting at a plus 29% to the Rams -20%. They just faced an underrated Saints defense and now have to face an elite defense. 

With those numbers alone I don’t see Cardinals keeping this game close. Niners didn’t cover the 10 against redskins and the touts will mention the usual short week...and Niners are looking ahead to Seahawks so they won’t be up for it. Again trying to sell you the 10 point dog.

Niners -10 20 units 


 
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Posted: #59
Interesting  point AFN.
Gonna tail you blindly.
Thanks for your write up 
 
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Posted: #60
wow AFN, salute. you're killing it
 
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Posted: #61
RIP to AFN. . He will be covered legends next season.

M
 
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Posted: #62
Quote Originally Posted by SuperSlapem:

The Niners have been great for bettors but I wouldn’t say they’re for real until they prove who they are this second half of the season. The Niners have played average teams with average or young quarterbacks with the exception of Rivers who’s clearly past his prime. They haven’t faced any of the elite teams or QBs. They haven’t seen Wilson(twice), Rodgers, Jackson, Brees, Ryan and Goff. I’ll bet they lose 2-3 of those games. 


lol clearly you dont watch their games. they havent played the chargers and they destroyed Goff even though they had 10 days to prepare and the niners only had 5 days since they played Monday night. You're either a hater or a shill for the books.

The only team in the NFC that has a chance to beat this team is NO, but they would have to travel to California in January to do so. This team is tailor made to beat NE, a disruptive DL that can pressure the QB with a fast secondary with a creative offense that runs the ball majority of the time to lessen the impact of NE's pass defense
 
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Posted: #63

Quote Originally Posted by sharkscore:

Quote Originally Posted by SuperSlapem:

The Niners have been great for bettors but I wouldn’t say they’re for real until they prove who they are this second half of the season. The Niners have played average teams with average or young quarterbacks with the exception of Rivers who’s clearly past his prime. They haven’t faced any of the elite teams or QBs. They haven’t seen Wilson(twice), Rodgers, Jackson, Brees, Ryan and Goff. I’ll bet they lose 2-3 of those games. 
lol clearly you dont watch their games. they havent played the chargers and they destroyed Goff even though they had 10 days to prepare and the niners only had 5 days since they played Monday night. You're either a hater or a shill for the books. The only team in the NFC that has a chance to beat this team is NO, but they would have to travel to California in January to do so. This team is tailor made to beat NE, a disruptive DL that can pressure the QB with a fast secondary with a creative offense that runs the ball majority of the time to lessen the impact of NE's pass defense

 

Why would NO have to travel to CA in Jan to beat them? They play SF on Dec 8 in NO, and if they win would have tie-break advantage over them and home field for the playoffs.

 
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Posted: #64
So the books are charging -120 for Ravens +3.5 

The Books are banking on these Millennial kids who were what 17 years old? Trying to figure out who they want to take to prom when the 2007 patriots went on a ATS tear that year....

Boy times have changed.....because you have these same Millennials like some girl in Vegas on Twitter and social media touting the Ravens are the Sharp play. Seen the same thing when the Broncos were the sharp play against the Chiefs 

Have these kids forgotten the Browns destroyed the Ravens in Baltimore and made Lamar Jackson look like Jamarcus Russell 

Do you kids also know the Ravens offensive production has gotten worse since last month? Slumping offense and now have to face the Pats Defense? 

You kids need to watch the 2007 patriots on YouTube and understand it was the offense that year that was on a ATS tear except this year is the Defense that’s on an ATS tear....

I’m getting Pats -3.5 at EVEN again? 20 units 
 
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Posted: #65
Held Murray to 130 yards passing then get a fluke play to lose the cover unreal 
 
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Posted: #66
Quote Originally Posted by AFNfootballnerd:

Held Murray to 130 yards passing then get a fluke play to lose the cover unreal 

Cant win all the time. 
 
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Posted: #67

Over the years I have noticed numbers based analysis works great in the first half of the NFL season, but in as teams go deep into the season, unexpected things start to happen.  AFN, keep up the good work.  I agree with you on New England this Sunday.

 
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Posted: #68
Quote Originally Posted by midnightprowl:


Cant win all the time. 

  Just hate capping a game and covering for 95% of the 3 hours I just watched to get moosed by a fluke 80 yard touchdown 
 
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Posted: #69
Jaguars beat Houston then lose to Colts next week....and colts lose to Steelers and Steelers lose to the rams next week..... amazing how the NFL works 

Jaguars +1 20 units

Steelers -1 20 units 


 
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Posted: #70
Game reminds me of week 5 Broncos Chargers -4.5 see any similarities? Good defense not so good QB....

Bears +4 20 units 
 
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Posted: #71
AFN,
Not sure aboit Steelers...
I ride Jags pick with you.
Thanks for your work 
 
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Posted: #72

Them Pats are at -3 (-110) right now brotha.. an_eek2

an_nailbiter

"Schrödinger's bet." A bet that loses when you bet it but wins when you DON'T bet it...
 
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Posted: #73
AFN  Man this Patriots game is a tough one but I like your angle...saved me from making a wager on Baltimore 

GL my man
 
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Posted: #74

AFN you know your stuff and I enjoy reading it. Thanks for all that you do! Good Luckan_praisewinan_dance

 
 
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Posted: #75
AFN - is the Steelers play dependent on the Jags winning? Or do you like them regardless? Thanks! 
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